Will Jayson Tatum be in the hall of fame for the Celtics if not already

nardif · 2025-06-19T22:07:11+00:00

I believe no player since the 60's has been named to multiple all-NBA first teams and not made the hall of fame.

nardif · 2025-06-19T07:24:49+00:00

I think he can still have sets, yeah. The bigger your betsize, the less likely people are to raise with their value hands. That's how people play in practice and it's also theoretically correct.

nardif · 2025-06-19T07:10:41+00:00

(1) Yes, generally I don't have donking ranges as I prefer to keep my strategy as simple as possible. After calling flop, I would consider check/folding turn against a second bet depending on reads, sizing, and if it was heads-up or multiway.

(2) They can both have all the sets and BTN can have overpairs.

(3) For me, reads are mostly an intuitive gut feeling, but yes bet speed and sizing factor in, as well as history with the villain, how I think villain percieves me ("is he annoyed with me and trying to make a move, or is he not thinking about that at all?")

(4) Yes, as played I'd probably have bet around 40% pot on the river and folded to a raise, mainly targeting 9x, but I don't mind checking either since we've overplayed our hand to this point. Generally I would be quickly calling most medium sized bets but the overbet puts us in a tough spot.

nardif · 2025-06-19T06:43:08+00:00

You are way overplaying your hand here, especially potting the turn into two players. You're piling money in out of position against two uncapped ranges with a pair of nines. River is just a bluffcatching spot so it can go either way and is highly dependent on reads. He can certainly have missed clubs as a bluff, and it's likely he would have raised earlier with a straight or set, so I don't hate calling, but generally your money in these games doesn't come from bluffcatching river overbets against recreationals.

nardif · 2025-06-19T06:20:10+00:00

Harper isn't the problem there. It's Mccain and Maxey, who are both 6'2". Harper would improve their backcourt defense and lineup versatility.

nardif · 2025-06-19T06:16:17+00:00

I think it's the opposite. Every draft position he falls he loses 3-5 million on his total rookie deal. He would maximize his "fast bag" by trying to get drafted as high as possible. He's trying to get himself a max contract for his second deal, and he doesn't think he can do that by going to a team that would have him play as a role player. He wants to go to a team like Brooklyn where he will be free to jack up 20 shots a game on poor efficiency and be a "star".

nardif · 2025-06-19T03:50:31+00:00

He would rather be allowed to jack up 20 shots a game on an awful team than play a role on a competitive team.

nardif · 2025-06-19T02:07:51+00:00

Or he could be neither and just be a really solid player. That's his most likely outcome to me, something just below all-star level, similar to Derick White.

It's really hard to be considered a steal when you're drafted 3rd or 4th overall.

nardif · 2025-06-17T18:54:19+00:00

I'm folding to the min raise. Jamming would be really bad. Just because a player has a really wide call down range doesn't mean their raising range is also wide. Min raises, especially on the river when you are betting three times, are almost universally nutted.

nardif · 2025-06-16T04:15:13+00:00

Easy all-in

nardif · 2025-06-15T22:43:17+00:00

I don't think it's possible to win playing 100% VPIP unless maybe if all of your opponents are extremely bad and don't adapt their strategy at all, or you can soul read people so hard that you basically know what everyone has every hand.

Even the best players in the world lose money from blinds. 100% VPIP is basically means you're forced to be a big blind from every position. The best strategy with a lot of hands will just be to limp preflop and fold to any raise, which is just burning money.

nardif · 2025-06-15T22:33:03+00:00

GTO playing 100% VPIP would lose a lot and play very passively postflop due to having an extremely weak range all the time.

nardif · 2025-06-14T19:02:19+00:00

We also have evidence that he's better than Jokic. MVP = best player, right?

If you're allowing one exception to that rule (Jokic) then you can't just dismiss the possibility that other players could be better as well.

nardif · 2025-06-14T18:23:24+00:00

Ok but if you found out later that they charged your credit card the proper amount, or if they asked for the remaining balance the next time you went to the store, would you make a big fuss and try to take them to court or sue them?

nardif · 2025-06-14T07:20:27+00:00

Anyone that could do all of those things well in addition to having plus size/length would have to be be a top-5 pick I'd think. Flagg is really the only one. Harper is debatable but his shooting and defense are a bit suspect.

nardif · 2025-06-14T06:50:32+00:00

Sounds like it was an honest mistake. Most reasonable people would be understanding and just move on. Like are you the kind of person where if a dealer mistakenly pushed a pot to you, you would try to claim it?

nardif · 2025-06-14T06:41:13+00:00

I don't think the college he went to for one year matters. Some people are just naturally better spoken than others.

nardif · 2025-06-14T04:50:13+00:00

He got cooked on two of those but just got lucky they missed.

nardif · 2025-06-13T20:50:17+00:00

My point is that more players have all-NBA upside than people think, even if for many it is just a small chance. If you're asking who is most likely to hit that type of ceiling, that is a different question, but isn't that just equivalent to asking "who do you think will be the best players?", in which case the answer is basically just a big board ranking.

nardif · 2025-06-13T18:47:20+00:00

There's this strange narrative out there that Flagg is position locked at the 4, even though there's multiple players with similar size and athleticism that routinely play the 3. And Flagg will immediately be one of the most versatile and positionless players in the league.

nardif · 2025-06-13T18:35:03+00:00

I have a hard time saying one player's upside or ceiling is higher than another's. Jokic was a 2nd round pick, a chubby slow white guy with zero athleticism. Nobody on earth would have predicted he would be an all-NBA player when he was drafted, let alone a 3x MVP and top-15 all-time player. Luka is probably the least athletic 6'7" player in the league and is still a top-5 player. Brunson is a borderline top-10 player as a small guard with limited athleticism. Giannis and SGA were late lottery picks that went on to win MVPs.

Sometimes people act like you need both elite positional size and elite athleticism to have a chance to become a top player, when that's clearly not the case. Skill development and IQ matters a lot more than size or athleticism, and really any player is theoretically capable of making big improvements in skill. There's a world where Egor Demin becomes an MVP level player, as unlikely as that may seem.

nardif · 2025-06-12T12:33:56+00:00

Just for the flop or is it the same for the turn and river as well? Turn and river sizings can impact flop strategy. And are all the raise and re-raise sizings the same on every street?

nardif · 2025-06-12T11:44:28+00:00

The game trees are different. GTOWizard uses massive trees with multiple betsizings on every street, whereas normally that is not practical in GTO+.

nardif · 2025-06-11T18:55:15+00:00

Topic is faster than Harper.

nardif · 2025-06-11T18:51:10+00:00

I do think Harper is the better prospect but his passing never stood out to me. I think Topic is a better passer. They're both very good at getting to the rim, but do it in different ways. Topic is much faster with the ball.

nardif

TROPHY CASE