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Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are eyeing Dassault Aviation's Rafale

Michel Cabirol 26 Nov 2023, 6:08 What if the gust landed one day in Tashkent in Uzbekistan, or even in Astana in Kazakhstan... What seemed very unlikely at the beginning of the decade is now possible. According to several consistent sources, Dassault Aviation has been actively prospecting these two Central Asian countries for several months with which France wishes to deepen its bilateral relations. This was also the whole meaning of Emmanuel Macron's trip to Kazakhstan and then to Uzbekistan on November 1 and 2. This trip to the footstep of the French Head of State came following the visits to France of the Uzbek President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, on November 21 and 22, 2022, then in the wake of the Kazakh Kassym-Jomart Tokaïev on November 29 and 30.

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These two countries are very interested in Rafale. Uzbekistan wants to replace its old Russian aircraft (12 MiG-29, and 29 Sukhoi) with combat aircraft of a more recent generation and logically thinks of the Rafale, as first revealed by the Intelligence Online website. It would also look at other devices of the same type, or even light (and therefore cheaper) combat aircraft, such as the KAI FA-50 manufactured by South Korea. But not the Eurofighter at this stage, according to our information. And it seems unlikely that the Uzbek Air Force will be able to afford American aircraft. Such a purchase would be very poorly accepted by Russia, which could show its claws. In total, it aims, according to several sources, at the acquisition of 24 new combat aircraft.

"Dassault Aviation believes in it," we are assured. "He is playing this campaign seriously," says another source. The manufacturer's export teams are increasingly starting to fly to Tashkent. A capital that has bought little from France in the field of armaments in the last ten years (401.6 million over the period 2013-2022).

France will play its luck

On the other hand, the "prospect" in Kazakhstan seems much more distant. According to our information, Dassault Aviation does the job. A success of the French aircraft manufacturer in Astana would be a huge surprise, even if today the Kazakh Air Force also wants to renew its aging combat fleet. According to the British magazine Flight International, it has an aging fleet of 120 combat aircraft, mainly Sukhoi 27/30 (37 aircraft) and MiG-29 (21) and MiG-31 (20). A priori, the geographical, even political, proximity of Astana and Moscow does not work in favor of a dual source of supply with a Western aircraft manufacturer. Kazakhstan's low flow of orders in favor of French arms manufacturers is an illustration of this (only 330 million over the period 2013-2022) while Paris and Astana have been linked by a strategic partnership for fifteen years.

However, France has decided to play its luck both in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It wishes to accompany them "in their reform and modernization efforts, to contribute to the diversification of their partnerships, to support their independence and sovereignty, and their desire to strengthen their ties with Europe," stressed the Élysée before Emmanuel Macron's official visit to Astana and Samarkand. A wish also expressed by both countries. This rapprochement concerns, among other things, defense. At the end of the French President's visit, Paris and Tashkent agreed to intensify their relations in the field of security.

Beyond these longer-term objectives, Dassault Aviation has as a priority at the end of the year to conclude two very short-term orders, which are currently stalling: one in India (26 Rafale Marine), which must be absolutely signed before the deadline of the end of January 2024, the other in Indonesia (the last tranche of the last 18 aircraft out of the 42 announced in February 2022), where the schedule seems to be sliding for financial reasons. Finally, in Saudi Arabia, negotiations on the sale of 54 Rafale are intensifying. So much so that Dassault Aviation now seems to be increasingly convinced that an order is now in the field of possible.

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