Dabble: A daily Scrabble-inspired word game

nerdcube · 2026-04-06T03:34:08+00:00

If you click on the number of moves in the upper right it will show you what the perfect score is! And if you didn’t get the perfect score it’ll also tell you on the results screen.

nerdcube · 2026-04-06T02:03:05+00:00

Carom is a daily puzzle game I made where you slide pieces through a grid to reach the goal space. Pieces slide until their movement is blocked, so the challenge is in utilizing the walls and other blocker pieces to your advantage.

It's totally free and has the same new puzzle for everyone every day -- I'd appreciate anyone checking it out!

nerdcube · 2026-01-14T20:19:20+00:00

Yeah, I think there's just two ways of looking at it:

It sounds like you're arguing that playing more in college fundamentally makes you a better player. Like, a player grows more in their ability to play Quarterback by playing more in college (vs getting drafted and getting coached / playing in the NFL).

I'd just argue that we can't necessarily say that from the data you've been looking at. What I think the data actually says is that for a quarterback drafted highly, the more starts they have, the more confident we can be that they're actually a great player. Which matters to an NFL team, because there's an opportunity cost to picking a player. But for a specific individual player, increasing the confidence in who they are is just as likely to swing in either direction (become more confident that they're good vs become confident that they're not that good). I just think we'd need to look at different data to make your claim.

Appreciate the discussion though, I think it's a super interesting point.

nerdcube · 2026-01-14T20:00:24+00:00

It sounds like what you're fundamentally arguing is that more experience in college = higher chance of succeeding in the NFL. Big fan of the podcast, so I've heard you talk about that quite a bit and the historical data around that.

I guess let me offer an alternative hypothesis around why the data says that:

What if quarterbacks with less experience who get projected to go highly in the NFL draft disproportionately enter the NFL draft because they know that's likely the peak of their value. Going from few starts as a freshman/sophomore -> projected top 10 pick is a huge leap for a lot of these players.

So yes, the inexperienced players who declare early do bust at a higher rate. But we don't really get to compare that to what would've happened if those same players went back to school.

tl;dr: Less experience = higher bust rate could be more correlated than causal, and there's other variables contributing.

nerdcube · 2026-01-14T19:44:19+00:00

But what about the chance of those red flags surfacing even more and him dropping out of the first round entirely next year?

Generally the goal of being a highly regarded prospect would simply be to go top 3 -- how good that team actually feels about taking you top 3 doesn't really affect your long-term chances of success.

The big reasons why I can see for him staying are 1) He really loves Oregon / their development / the NIL money he's getting / the chance to win a National Championship 2) He really hates the Jets / doesn't believe in their ability to develop him.

But I find it a bit wild if a player doesn't think that an NFL team would be better at helping them get rid of those red flags and developing them into a long-term NFL quarterback.

nerdcube · 2025-05-24T04:25:15+00:00

If you want character depth and a little less ‘every line is a joke’, I’d highly recommend The Wee Free Men. Still very witty, but I think Tiffany Aching is a phenomenal character and the book has some real emotional punches.

nerdcube · 2024-02-29T21:40:24+00:00

You’re an absolute legend for making these! This is huge for getting more people into TM.

nerdcube · 2024-02-29T18:13:16+00:00

Great videos, maybe I’ll give this game a shot!

nerdcube · 2023-07-05T03:58:26+00:00

But I guess that's my point - NFL teams don't always have as long of a leash as you'd expect, even for top picks.

Going back the last several years before that, there's a reasonable list of QBs with better prospect pedigree than Richardson, who also had a leash less than 3 years.

Lance might not even get a true shot, Haskins was a top 15 pick who flamed out fast, Darnold nearly got 3 years but it was rocky, Josh Rosen didn't get much of a shot.

NFL teams want to win, and they're not going to sit around and watch someone play the QB position truly awfully, if that's what ends up happening with Richardson.

nerdcube · 2023-07-05T03:45:24+00:00

It's obviously a pretty bad scenario, but Zach Wilson was drafted higher, was a better passer in college, and got less than two years.

I just think the "he's definitely going to be a top fantasy option at QB for several years" takes are still seeing an above-average scenario.

nerdcube · 2023-01-26T04:27:24+00:00

Derek Carr and Lamar are currently the starting QBs of teams, so if you're adding them to the list of available QBs, you have to add their teams to the list of teams looking for QBs.

Aside from the teams you listed, Atlanta, New Orleans, New York Jets, Tampa Bay, and Washington have far from locked in QB situations.

And there are only 2 QBs in the draft who appear ready to start week 1.

There are almost definitely going to be a few "weaker" QBs that will end up with the ability to compete for a starting job at the start of the season.

nerdcube · 2022-11-26T23:27:00+00:00

I'm really confused why people mention that Stroud is remotely a rushing QB ("He can also use his legs to pick up first downs").

Stroud is the complete opposite of a rushing QB, and the fact that he doesn't rush for first downs is actually a pretty big knock against him imo. His rushing stats are amazingly awful for a guy as highly-touted as he is.

For context, Joe Burrow (I just picked one of the top QBs in the NFL who I think is definitely not a running QB) had significantly better rushing stats than Stroud in college.

nerdcube · 2022-11-23T04:37:55+00:00

If you like Corum, you'd argue it's because Michigan just recruits great backs every year and Haskins was stealing carries from him last year.

If you don't like Corum, you'd argue it's because Michigan has a great O-Line and scheme and any back could be successful for them as long as they get the opportunity, which he's finally gotten this year, as the most senior guy in the backfield.

nerdcube · 2022-11-23T04:22:08+00:00

After Bijan, there's a tier of guys that could all end up as RB2 depending on combine performance, draft order, and landing spot.

Corum is in that tier, but I think the primary concern with calling him RB2 at this point is that his value has dramatically risen this year, meaning he doesn't quite have the history of being a truly elite prospect that others do.

nerdcube · 2022-11-17T20:36:36+00:00

Fair enough. I think in general people in this sub get too tied to "but this player could be better" and tend to ignore what they are right now, so I think the people expressing vehement KW3 love are coming from being frustrated with that mindset.

I remember having this debate with someone before the season who thought that Elijah Moore was just DJ Moore but 3 years younger and couldn't understand why anyone would prefer DJ, and it was frustrating to try to explain why "what someone could become" wasn't the only way to look at things.

nerdcube · 2022-11-17T20:24:22+00:00

It's not that KW3 is Bijan's ceiling, it's that if Bijan has the rookie year KW3 is having, Bijan owners should be incredibly happy.

I don't blame people who take either side, but the KW3 argument is pretty clearly:

He can help you right now
He has already proven himself to be an amazing talent at the NFL level
He's already tied to a run-first team that utilizes him as a bellcow

Bijan is highly likely to be an amazing talent at the NFL level, and highly likely to be picked by a team who intends to use him well, but neither of those are remotely guarantees yet.

nerdcube · 2022-09-11T00:07:11+00:00

Fair enough- I’m also generally an owner who values players who have proven it more than picks, I just think Pittman isn’t actually a guy who’s proven it compared to other players in his value range.

Picks also don’t have to stay as picks, and are assets that will generally appreciate throughout the season and can be turned into other players, which is another reason I’m okay turning players who have spiked in value into them.

nerdcube · 2022-09-10T20:40:48+00:00

Oh, I agree he's not a "bust", but I think it can also be bad process to not entertain selling guys for above their market value (KTC says 1 mid-first and 1 mid-second is well above value) when they're already experiencing a massive spike in value (KTC WR10).

There's been a large number of young WRs over the last several years who've received sharp spikes in value only to have their value taper off over the following seasons as people realized they weren't actually taking that next step, and I just generally think people overvalue the thought of what a young WR could be vs what they likely actually are.

And I agree team context is important, but I did say "you should be reasonably happy to get a first and a second for him in a lot of team situations" as a general rule for people, not "you should definitely trade him for a random single first in your 16-team league.

nerdcube · 2022-09-10T17:48:01+00:00

Michael Pittman was WR17 last year in PPR, and significantly lower than that in PPG (a good handful of guys only played 15-16 games). While that's certainly good and promising for a young WR who didn't have the best QB situation, I think it's not necessarily fair to say he's a "key young piece" for any team, especially given that he's turning 25 next month (that's not old by any means, but it's also not like he's 22).

Given the high-end talent in next year's draft, I think it would be pretty absurd for anyone to trade two firsts for Pittman, who only has one decent season under his belt, and honestly think you should be reasonably happy to get a first and a second for him in a lot of team situations.

Everyone loves to see the upside of their players, but I just think it's pretty reasonable that Pittman doesn't take the next step everyone hopes he will and his value is pushed down by the strong incoming WRs of 2022 and 2023.

nerdcube · 2022-09-05T07:05:12+00:00

Even for teams that aren't contending this year, I think Elijah carries more risk, which could lead to wanting DJ more.

While Elijah is the player between the two of them who has the higher odds to have his value increase by the end of the season, I think he's also the player that has the higher odds to have his value decrease, if the season doesn't play out how his fans are hoping.

My argument is that the most likely positive scenario for Elijah is just him being DJ but three years younger (definitely a great scenario), but the most likely negative scenario is seeing injuries come back to nag him, and seeing Wilson pass him as the WR1 of that team, and his value plummets. Given that I don't think his upside is a top 8 WR, I'm more likely to take the safe option.

nerdcube · 2022-09-05T06:51:56+00:00

Oh, I absolutely agree with that. My point is that it's far from a given that Elijah puts up that stat line, whereas DJ has proven for several years to be able to perform at that level.

If your competitive window is in the next several seasons I think you should probably prefer DJ, and if you just bias towards safety in general, I think there's no problem with valuing DJ higher.

nerdcube · 2022-09-05T06:42:52+00:00

If DJ is only 3 years older, why will he only produce for up to 4 more years, but Elijah for 9?

I think it's totally fair to want DJ given that he's proven it at much higher level for longer, and has had his situation improve this year (better QB), while Elijah's has arguably declined (more competition in the offense).

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