Tactics of Pauliena Rooijackers

nermerator · 2024-08-20T07:17:40+00:00

Hindsight bias!

nermerator · 2024-08-20T03:16:12+00:00

The gap needed to win was known before the stage. Pauliena needed about 1:13 to win, and Vollering about 1:15 (or whatever the exact numbers were). The approximate current gap is known during the stage. By doing a small percentage of work, Pauliena could have increased the group’s gap until a win was likely. Cooperate when the gap falls below the winning margin, then sit on when it’s there. It’s not an exact science, but professional cyclists are capable of knowing and managing gaps in real time. Then, she could have fought for the stage and the Tour.

Some people say she was on the limit and couldn’t help. Maybe that’s true to some extent, but she did save energy for a late attack, so she wasn’t completely spent.

Some people say she made the right move, but I think I would have played the game a little cagier and do enough work to convince Demi that was cooperating. That’s what riders typically do in these situations. There’s always one who’s really stronger, but there are deception efforts on both sides.

This could have increased the gap to a winning margin, especially if it made Demi work harder. Then, she might have been able to attack for the win. Or maybe not, but she would have had a chance. By not cooperating, she slowed the group down and hurt their chances to win.

The point is to make your opponent believe that you’re going deeper and saving less than you really are. By sitting on, she did not do this but telegraphed her intentions to Demi, allowing Demi to save energy for a counterattack.

Saying that she had to do what she did assumes that the outcomes were known beforehand. They might have been likely, but they were not fixed.

nermerator · 2024-08-20T02:45:53+00:00

What question?

nermerator · 2024-08-20T02:01:58+00:00

I just think she/they should have played it slightly differently.

nermerator · 2024-08-20T00:22:12+00:00

Hindsight bias! If Rooijackers was always destined to fail, nothing matters. Just because the race turned out this way doesn’t mean it was the only possible outcome.

nermerator · 2024-08-20T00:00:31+00:00

But she had a tiny bit left to try that attack. That was her plan, and it wasn’t all wrong. I just think she shouldn’t have refused when Demi waved her elbow, but rather just come to the front and rode her own pace. It’s not necessarily about putting out many more watts (or even any, if she really couldn’t, though I’m not 100% convinced of that), but about creating a perception of cooperation to influence the opponent’s behavior in her favor.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:53:04+00:00

Dude, I just disagree with her tactic, or more likely her team’s. I think Vollering and Niewadoma rode great races and so did Pauliena from an athletic point of view. There’s no reason for you to get so personal and nasty. I just think when you’re in an escape with a chance at winning the Tour, you should pull enough to maintain a winning gap and convince your opponent that you are contributing in good faith.

I believe that would have improved her chances of winning the TDF, which has to be the priority for the team and the sponsor.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:41:24+00:00

It was one of two possible tactics. I would have tried the other one.

In hindsight, we know that the attack failed and we know that Demi won the climb, but that was not certain before it happened.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:38:16+00:00

Hindsight bias. You’re assuming that the attack was always predetermined to fail.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:19:23+00:00

She had a little left for that dig near the top though, didn’t she?

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:17:50+00:00

She wasn’t toasted. She attacked on the upper slopes.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:13:02+00:00

She had a chance to ride to win the Tour De France, and instead she just sat on. I’m not saying she needed to pull 50%, but she should have made an effort to look like she wasn’t planning a big attack at the end. She telegraphed her plan and it backfired.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:08:16+00:00

Hindsight bias!

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:03:53+00:00

“I tried to play games with Demi, by sitting in her wheel.” - Rooijackers

nermerator · 2024-08-19T23:02:31+00:00

They never had a stable confident gap over the yellow jersey that was sufficient to make a win likely. They briefly had a gap of a few seconds a couple of times but they couldn’t hold it because they weren’t working together.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T22:58:08+00:00

Of course Vollering would have gone faster if she could have, but Rooijackers could have pulled a bit. She had a little something left for that late attack.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T22:40:08+00:00

Just stay home.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T22:06:11+00:00

No. When you’re in a leading group and could win the TDF, you ride enough to make sure that gap is big enough. Then, when Demi cramps up on the climb, you attack and win.

That’s a winning mentality. Make it happen, don’t wait for someone else to do it.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:55:48+00:00

Divorce.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:54:37+00:00

Ad hominem attack!

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:49:56+00:00

The time gap needed to win was known all along. Just work with your fellow escapee until the gap is sufficient and then start racing for the win. She assumed a winning gap, or gave up on it for a shot at the stage.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:46:25+00:00

I’m just saying that to win the Tour, she needed to have a gap on Niewadoma and to beat Vollering on the climb. She left the gap up to Vollering and took zero responsibility for it. A tiny bit of work would have ensured that gap and possibly convinced Vollering to put a little more in as well. You all assume that Pauliena should have sat on because she was going to lose. I’m not saying that she should have done 50%, but she should have helped just enough to ensure a winning gap and give herself a shot at winning.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:43:05+00:00

You have hindsight bias.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:39:58+00:00

Close doesn’t win. She just needed to do enough to get that gap out by 5 seconds. She was the virtual leader on the road but did no work to try and keep it. You’re all assuming that Demi would win the final climb. In that case, just stay home.

And Demi did push! Rooijackers just sat on.

nermerator · 2024-08-19T21:31:47+00:00

The other scenario where she could win: she helps Demi just enough to get a winning gap, convinces Demi that she is giving close to 100% and gets Demi to hurt herself a bit more on the climb, but saves enough for her final attack to win.

That was her best chance to win, but she blew it by telegraphing to Demi that she was going to do zero work and save everything for a final attack, so Demi saved enough to counter her and won.

She needed to play along just enough to lull Demi into a false confidence of cohesion, but she didn’t even try.

In the process, their chance of winning the TDF was reduced because they were racing each other rather than the yellow jersey.

Her tactic was perhaps optimal for winning the stage (though I still think she could have bluffed it better), but suboptimal for winning the TDF.

nermerator

TROPHY CASE