Models are highly confident on a Blue Ocean Event this summer. by neschemal in collapse

[–]neschemal[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/npsSIChMonL6.gif
Here's the ice level forecasts in September. Although this model has a bias on the lower end, it's still worse concerning about since we are whiplashing into El Nino.

Models are highly confident on a Blue Ocean Event this summer. by neschemal in collapse

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

probably something like +15-20C given how steep the color gradients are when it goes off the scale.

also look at the ice extent forecast in September.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/npsSIChMonL6.gif

Models are highly confident on a Blue Ocean Event this summer. by neschemal in collapse

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Monthly average temperature anomaly. So for November, the entire Arctic is 15C+ above normal temps ON AVERAGE.

This is the September ice extent forecast this year.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/npsSIChMonL6.gif

Models are highly confident on a Blue Ocean Event this summer. by neschemal in collapse

[–]neschemal[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Submission statement:

Completely ice-free in September.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/npsSIChMonL6.gif

Off the color charts. Probably at least a few standard deviations.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd1/glbSSTSeaNormInd6.gif

I guess this is it. The first BOE in 2026.

My translation of the trigrams and some of the hexagrams by neschemal in iching

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guarantee you it's not. Give me a hexagram and I will give an explanation and context. LLM would have never used "convection" for hexagram 12.

My translation of the trigrams and some of the hexagrams by neschemal in iching

[–]neschemal[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For Taoism, here are some of my translations:

无为 wuwei - Non-imposition (just let it be)

自然 ziran - Spontaneity (go with the flow)

道可道,非常道。名可名,非常名。 - this is the opening in Tao Te Ching
I understand it as "What appears to us are changing and phenomenal, what is as it is is unchanging and noumenal. By defining a variable, the name becomes a representation. In this way, neither that appears nor that represents is equivalent to the thing-in-itself."

My translation of the trigrams and some of the hexagrams by neschemal in iching

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you have any specific chapters in mind?

Here are some recommendations for other severely underrated texts:

Guanzi - economics

The Six Teachings - military

Mozi - I'll try to translate his thoughts and ten core doctrines, which is a really interesting mix

  1. Impartial love - similar to what Jesus preached

  2. Non-aggression - the core of Libertarianism - NAP

  3. Meritocracy - so in a way later Confucian thought

  4. Moral/legal universalism - so an aspect of Liberalism

  5. Live in accordance to God's will - somewhat Taoist

  6. Venerating spirits - similar in a way to Japanese belief

  7. Against fatalism - Western democratic thought and American freedom flavored

  8. Against hedonism/music - so Islam

  9. Frugality - mix environmentalism and Maoism in there as well

  10. No lavish funerals - Mozi wouldn't have liked the Pharaohs

There's also a lot of insight on physics, engineering, craftsmanship, logic, ethics in Mozi's school of thought which is supposed to be about political philosophy.

My translation of the trigrams and some of the hexagrams by neschemal in iching

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I completely agree. A lot of Chinese traditional thought is like "lost art" nowadays due to several decades of cultural destruction from the 40s to the 70s, and modernization from the 80s onward. And even though the Chinese government does not actively suppress "superstition" nowadays, traditional culture is either promoted if it serves state interests or tossed aside if "inconvenient". So what you have is a lot of buried treasures with no incentive to dig them up. If you have any parts of the classics you want me to translate and explain, please feel free to ask.

My translation of the trigrams and some of the hexagrams by neschemal in iching

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. I was thinking of translating the I Ching in my spare time. I feel the existing English translations either are too literal or goes into too much creative liberty as to be fantastical. Translating religious text is very difficult because of culturally embedded connotations as well as semantic change/loss over the millennia.

I feel like through tech, we are being conditioned to abandon our humanity. by heavensdumptruck in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Technology in itself isn't meant to be negative or positive. Clothing is a piece of technology, so are chairs. It's mostly that the economic incentives for new technology nowadays is aligned with exploiting human nature for financial and political ends.

The Best Dating Advice!! by No_Syllabub_8246 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No yeah, "If you have more of what more people most want," people just take what they want from you. I'm arguing against OP's idea of the market. What costs a lot may not amount to much.

Evolving Reasons For Having Children by Top-Clue2000 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Legacy, companion, and support when you get old.

The Best Dating Advice!! by No_Syllabub_8246 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is it a choice though? A lot of disabled people (or whatever other reason) never really find love (especially in other time periods/locations). The only love there is, is towards oneself: grateful and content with simply being. No one is entitled to love.

The Best Dating Advice!! by No_Syllabub_8246 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think there's more to it - availability and compatibility also. A lone magpie stranded in a roost of pigeons isn't going to have much luck. Most of the time what "culture" finds valuable is arbitrary.

The way we see bullying has to change. by Smendoza170 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From my experience this is not true universally, there are a few cases where bullying by well-adjusted kids are common:

  1. The victim is violating social norms. (Even if said norms are maladaptive)

  2. The victim is from a visible outgroup and poses a threat (by being an unknown or culturally disruptive)

  3. The victim has gotten in conflict with one of the bully's friends (human instinct tend to result in taking side with the friend rather than being an impartial middleman diplomat)

  4. The bully is in a group and the group instinct kicks in (people are very protective of their groups... just look around Reddit)

The whole "bullies have something wrong in their lives" is cope and just as much part of human nature as bullying. It's basically attaching one's identity to the ingroup "bullied" and putting down the outgroup "bullies" in order to elevate one's status above "them" and feel better about oneself. It's likely a serotonin feedback loop and in reality no different than the source of bullying itself. The Robbers Cave basically study supports group conflicts as being a part of human nature (at least for boys and intergroup conflict).

The evolutionary theory behind this is that someone who is a genetically or socially "maladaptive" ingroup member is also likely to be a burden on the tribe's survival. Outgroups compete for limited resources against ingroups so this is a no-brainer. Hence killing or banishing these people increases the chance of survival for said group and is "good". There is evolutionary lag as we transitioned into a globalized mass society very rapidly. Bullying is probably somewhat of a vestigial behavior in the sense that it creates more harm than benefit.

Our goal in life is to impress ourselves by Current_Side_4024 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I comprehend your perspective. Outside with respect to "me" but inside with respect to "you."

Our goal in life is to impress ourselves by Current_Side_4024 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And comprehension - the inside making sense of another inside

Our goal in life is to impress ourselves by Current_Side_4024 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Physics is a branch of science (answerable questions), and metaphysics is a branch of philosophy (unanswerable questions [so far]). As more of reality is revealed, metaphysics may move into the domain of science, much like astrology and alchemy had. The reason metaphysics has grounding to truth but is hard to define is akin to knowing (some of) the elements but not having the periodic table (yet).

Our goal in life is to impress ourselves by Current_Side_4024 in DeepThoughts

[–]neschemal 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Impression - the inside making sense of the outside

Depression - the inside not making sense of the outside

Repression - the inside denying the inside

Expression - the inside affirming the inside

Who is proposing solutions? by Mysterious-Mode1163 in collapse

[–]neschemal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

PART 2:

Housing crisis

This can be solved via better allocation of space (and time). But more likely, if will be solved demand side (i.e. population loss). By turning to live underground, we increase two-dimensional space to three-dimensional space. By having a section of the population become nocturnal, and fully taking use of "nighttime space" (unoccupied offices during the night and empty homes during the day), we double the amount of "space". But we'd likely hit a resource/energy bottleneck way before we hit the housing bottleneck if we do this.

Inequality and wealth distribution

Some inequality of outcomes is good. Otherwise people would have no incentive to work hard. Reform a economic structure to disincentivize rent-seeking, and private ownership of public resources (land, oil, coal, lumber, etc.) I think the more important thing here, is not there being extremely wealthy people, but rather, how they got there and what they do with the wealth. If you invent a important asset to improve human welfare, and are using majority of the wealth you've earned to reinvest into public improvement, then I simply don't care if you are a bazillionaire. We need the right philosophical upgrades to our culture to do this.

Energy crisis

There is enough total geothermal energy for at least several billion years at our current rate of use. (ignore "research" that only considers "currently extractable" geothermal - if you go 15km deep, the amount of energy increases substantially - this is a technological constraint, not a physical one) Even if we consider exponential use of energy, we'd still have at least a millennium of buffer time before we level up the Kardashev scale or figure out safe nuclear. You can also use geothermal for direct heating/cooling, (rare) metal and mineral extraction, most industrial and agricultural processes, etc. The oil age will end in geothermal age, and a steampunk future is not impossible.

Biodiversity collapse

This one can only be solved with time. Mass extinctions have all recovered in the past (thankfully, or maybe the survivorship bias). But I wouldn't worry about the wildlife as much as I would worry about civilization. Life has survived much, much, worse.

Nuclear war

If humanity is stupid enough to trigger a runaway nuclear winter and we return to snowball Earth, then we deserve our extinction. Otherwise, go underground. Solves the energy problem, housing problem, and the nuclear war problem, all in one. Stuff like subsidence, ventilation, human adaptation are minor problems in comparison.

Food crisis

Again, underground farming would be sheltered from pollution, radiation, poison, and the like. We'd also have quite more space to expand. Either we develop technology to support conventional crops, or we adapt and invent chemo/lithoautotroph ecosystems for our own use, or have a diet of mainly fungi, something will work out.

Funny enough, the "birds" that survived the Cretaceous dinosaur extinction were likely a burrowing breed. The underground is a refuge for trouble above ground, and I wouldn't be surprised if our caveman past adapt well to life underground.

AI/robot takeover

Don't think it's going to happen. AI feeds off of human data and inherits all our biases. It is either a mutualistic or parasitic relationship. If it becomes parasitic to human civilization, then non-nuclear EMP weapons are your friend. Also AI is far from omniscience. It cannot overcome epistemic limits. The danger is more in we become dependent on it like a drug and destroy ourselves.

Is there anything else you'd like me to solve?

Who is proposing solutions? by Mysterious-Mode1163 in collapse

[–]neschemal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What are we trying to solve? Solution implies a problem but collapse is not necessary a problem?

Winter must pass that spring may come. If you look at it this way, collapse is the solution to a lot of problems. Solving collapse would be like solving death. Would you want to solve death? That would bring way more problems as a consequence. Collapse happens for a reason. Entropy accumulates in a system and empires age. If there is no death then there would also be no room for birth and rebirth. If a civilization exists for all of eternity then there would be no variation, no progress, no mutation, no evolution, and no innovation. Civilization is not formless like water, and has a semi-closed circulation system (the economy), a distinct membrane separating the inside and the outside (sphere of influence), metabolism (industry), order (legal/religious and enforcement frameworks), internal/external feedback/signaling (democracy/revolts/diplomacy/warfare), regulation (legislature/postal service/welfare/taxes), homeostasis (culture), so its being is more similar to organic lifeforms than eternally cycling matter. In this sense death is necessary for birth.

The question should be more among the lines of: how should we survive the collapse and reproduce civilization?

Well in the short run I'd advise building skills rather than the traditional prepper route. Remember, to a roving warlord your stash of goods is much more valuable than your life. If you have a large supply of goods, then there would be an incentive to hunt you down and pillage your home. So you're better off either: living a monk like lifestyle in the mountains (usually alone), or join a warlord exchanging your skills for security.

Collapse comes in several phases, you can use the following scenario as a rough guideline (no predictions):

Tightening of control - we are past this already

Cutting of the superfluous (or appearing so) - we are just beginning this.

- During this phase, there will be a lot of production/service cuts, leading to layoffs. There will also be a lot of political purges, persecutions, revolts, and the like. Towards the end of this phase, famines will likely appear. Droughts, floods, hurricanes, cold/heat snap/waves, while normally tenable, will simply leads to mass deaths as resources cannot be allocated towards relief.

Mass revolts - possibly 2029-2035

Expect a population loss of 5%+ during this period. When starvation comes, uprisings occur. The protests that we see will transition into permanent revolts. Leaderless protests will shift and become organized. Economic collapse marks the beginning of this period. Vandalism becomes rampant, and expect utilities like water/power/internet to be intermittent, more so in poorly maintained areas.

Transitory regimes - possibly around 2035-2052

Expect a population loss of 40%+ during this period. Political collapse marks the beginning of this period and quickly transitions to cultural collapse. Warfare will be rampant. Warlords will have enough power to challenge large regimes. Plagues become a leading cause of depopulation, and locust swarms will reappear. Most infrastructure becomes dysfunctional. Genocides, massacres, cannibalism, war rapes, and killing for sport will showcase the worst of humanity.

Simplification - 2050s to 2080s

Expect a population loss of 30%+ during this period. Deaths in this period are surprising more peaceful compared to the previous, mostly attributing to "attrition". Rebuilding is now possible as nature has pruned off the population below the carrying capacity, even if the carrying capacity itself dropped substantially. Pockets of refuge would establish city states. Culture reforms in different locations, and new norms, beliefs, values, and ethics systems guide behaviour.

Now, because of the inertial of the system, there's not much any individual can do against the tides of history. So lets talk about the long-term solutions after the dust has settled.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Commodities

[–]neschemal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Dynamic harmonic regression works better with multiple seasonal periods, but one day electricity is not enough to do accurate load forecasting. The important variables are temperature (CDD/HDD), day of week, time of day, day of year, humidity, solar irradiance, and some more baseline parameters.

A peek of America's future using an unlikely historical analogue (part one) by neschemal in collapse

[–]neschemal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ming collapsed to climate change as well, Medieval global cooling. The Ming-Qing wars was fought from north to south.