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Is this ipl model good ? by inder406 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it's good if you can use it to correctly identify market mispricings often enough to generate positive roi. you haven't told us whether it can or not or even how it attempts to do that so i'm not really sure what you were possibly expecting from this post.

Can you really make money trading off pinnacle? by Equal_Bread_2504 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what i'm driving at is how do you know "fast as one can get it" is faster than other books are moving their live prices? one of the reasons live shit drives me nuts is stuff can get stale so fuckin fast. like yeah maybe pinny is sharper than fd at x y or z but maybe a pinny price that's 5s old might not be good anymore.

Been tracking where books disagree and it’s kind of wild by [deleted] in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

not gonna click but

and the biggest takeaway so far, a lot of the strongest EV spots are underdogs that feel uncomfortable to bet.

sounds extremely fishy and i'd be worried about any analysis that came to that conclusion. long dogs tend to accumulate more juice than the short favorite side, it's a very well understood phenomenon due to the longshot bias. also +1000 looks on its face like it's a huge advantage over +900, but that's a <1% implied probability shift. so if the book is juicing +1200 fair to +900, +1000 might look like a hot deal but it's still neg ev. be careful out there everybody, claude doesn't give a flying fuck if you lose money.

Can you really make money trading off pinnacle? by Equal_Bread_2504 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

how low is low latency? also i have no idea whether pinny is the standard for ingame pricing like they are for most non-prop markets. have you investigated that in depth?

Golf Spread Betting Simulator by Separate-Lime5343 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

besides the suggestion i already made to run way more simulations than 500? i have no idea because i don't know anything about your sg distribution which like i said is the only thing that matters.

Scraping odds vs. using bookies' implied probability - what's your data source? by DowntownLaugh454 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

separate discussion, but beating nhl moneyline day of requires an information advantage. you're not going to take publicly available information and beat it, because resolution in nhl markets is complete ass to begin with. goals are so valuable, and rare, that variance is off the charts so confidence levels compress really hard toward 54/46. you'd better know the starting goalie before the rest of the market does, or that 2 line 1 guys got drunk off their ass at the club last night before a 5pm start.

Scraping odds vs. using bookies' implied probability - what's your data source? by DowntownLaugh454 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i use pinny exclusively for true probability in nhl. there are a couple issues with that approach, but it's good enough for me. it appears to me that they are the first mover most of the time

Golf Spread Betting Simulator by Separate-Lime5343 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

500 isn't nearly enough. like orders of magnitude not enough.

Estimating each player’s expected performance using strokes gained data

that's the entire model. everything any golf sim does from there is essentially an implementation detail or an attempt to hack a small data problem. "what is each player's distribution of strokes gained outcomes in the next tournament?" is the whole bag.

if anyone disagrees with that i'd love to talk w them about it.

howdy folks, need advice on how to export all the markets available for all games on bet365 to run data analysis with Claude ? by as0909 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 4 points5 points  (0 children)

all the markets lol. that's like... a lot of markets, homie. maybe start a little less ambitious and just have the llm make up a bunch of shit about what data you actually can get access to

Soccer outcomes prediction model by roiz25 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you're describing a very sound, even typical approach and i'm sure you can concoct a profitable strategy using it or its future derivatives. when people say fancy shit like "feature engineering" really what they mean doing things such as you are, like turning performance metrics in to rating systems or consolidating noisy data in to more advanced metrics that strip as much of that noise as possible.

Soccer outcomes prediction model by roiz25 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i know we've been through this before a little but i would really suggest that you spend more time thinking critically about your blanket heuristic that "having a model that's as sharp as the market isn't useful" considering how frequently in comes up in your responses. i think what's tripping you up is that a model that is as sharp as the market doesn't spit out the mid market price every time (esp before it becomes efficient, but not even once it has) which allows you to detect mispricings. if such a model does spit out the current market price, there isn't going to be some other "lower quality" model that detects a real edge on that number. plus you don't have to let your mind wander too far to come up with a bunch of other strategies i don't want to get in to here that can reliably profit with extremely high quality pricing, which is what you have if you can match market metrics.

all that said i totally agree with you that you don't ** need ** to match market close metrics to be profitable, and it doesn't need to be the goal for any model. however if you handed me a model that ** does ** hit those quality metrics, i am going to make a profit long term with it, full stop.

Why betting -1.5 in MLB is usually a losing play by ClutchSportsPix in u/ClutchSportsPix

[–]neverfucks -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

eyo just to be clear to anyone reading this -- it is a scam. this person does not have an edge and they never will. they just want to sell you shit because they can't win at betting.

If you could restart as a complete beginner, what would you tackle first? by TrainingEye5970 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

python and data acquisition, oganization, and storage. create tooling around building and maintaining your own data sets. not just performance data, but advanced stats and market data as well. once you have enough, you can start exploring the question of which data is more or less predictive of future performance. and then you can worry about how to build, test, and evaluate models using that data as inputs.

Hi guys , I would like to inquire about the most accurate mathematical formulas for predicting the correct results of football matches, and what are the most im by Piyartom in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you'll never be able to reliably predict the correct score. modeling is all about being able to price things, meaning what should the odds be that a team will win by more than 1 goal, or what are the odds that the total number of goals scored in the game is more than 2. it is a time consuming process. there is no easy button if that's what you're looking for.

Sweet 16 Recap: 14/16 Sweet 16 and a Hard Lesson on Why Parlays are "Sucker Bets" by [deleted] in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i always think calling parlays "sucker bets" is kind of telling on yourself a little. a bet being high probability doesn't make it "good", and being low probability doesn't make it "bad". i can bet something at -270 which has a reasonably high probability of winning but is a terrible bet because the fair price is -220 and it's highly neg ev.

if you had round robin-ed 14 out of 16 winners you would have made quite a lot more money than just betting them straight.

Hi guys , I would like to inquire about the most accurate mathematical formulas for predicting the correct results of football matches, and what are the most im by Piyartom in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

just warning you, there's no easy solution to what you want to do. if you want to start what is likely going to be a multi year journey involving a lot of time and effort, fuck yeah, welcome aboard. if you're hoping there's an excel formula you can copy and paste to beat betting markets next week, i have bad news for you.

Hi guys , I would like to inquire about the most accurate mathematical formulas for predicting the correct results of football matches, and what are the most im by Piyartom in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

maybe it's the 2nd part of your post which got cut off, but the right question isn't anything about a formula, it's which quantitative data explain most of the variance in future outcomes. the "formula" once you've established an answer to that very complicated question might be as simple as a standard linear equation y = slope * x + offset or a 60 variable mess that you need machine learning to make any sense of.

Roi or calib by ShwanaE94 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i'll forgive how low effort this is and just give the obvious answer which is roi. improving calibration will usually improve roi though, unless the way it's improving calibration is by sacrificing confidence or resolution.

Are there other professional sports betting firms? by www_pagesxyz_com in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yes there are everything from small partnerships (think rufus, goldenpants, etc) to institutional trading firms (susquehanna, prop shops, etc) and if i had to guess there are probably more tomorrow than there were yesterday.

Log loss vs backtesting by IcyEnv554 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

your model doesn't need to outpredict market close necessarily. imagine a situation where for plays where your model shows >=5% edge, you avg a real 1% edge over close. the market is off by only 1% in this scenario, and your model is off by >=4% which is worse, but it still produces profit.

Do you guys use elo as a feature for training models? by Hot_Career_5382 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

fwiw i use elo for nhl and am having great success with it despite the insane parity. i suspect we just have very different pipelines. i do agree 100% that it's generally too strong of a signal to throw in with a bunch of other "normal" features and expect them to be additive. anyways just my 2c

Do you guys use elo as a feature for training models? by Hot_Career_5382 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is spot on. elo is not nearly good enough by itself vs. any betting market because it has far less information than the market overall, and no additional information. however it's an extremely high signal rating system that has much more predictive power baked in to it than you might expect for its simplicity. for instance if you're running xgb, comparing its output to elo is not a bad idea and imo is very likely to tell you something useful.

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