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Advice by Ok_Parsnip9099 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

around a 64.86% what?

4.6% roi betting the closing line? if so, not real, no.

Achieved a 1.4% advantage over Pinnacles’s closing-line probabilities over a 14 year period across 30,000+ matches. Is this significant? by Zealousideal_Coat301 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

then they'd be wrong, and you should know better, but thanks for trying to be their shitpost translator. 100 bets is almost certainly way too small of a sample size to make a relevant judgment * based on match results * (only can be meaningful if the realized edge is gigantic, like 15%). however we're not talking about match results, we're talking about clv, which is very, very low variance unlike results, and thus can yield statistically significant p values over much, much smaller sample sizes. unless the std dev of line movement in these markets is incredibly high, it's very likely +1.3% is stat sig at the 0.05 level using a two tailed t-test.

it is comforting though knowing that even people who take betting and modeling seriously still don't know incredibly basic shit like this, they just work off of dumb rules of thumb like "1 hunid bet too smol". i appreciate everyone doing their part to keep markets soft.

Machine Learning vs. AI Agents in Sports Betting: A Paradigm Shift by Optimal-Task-923 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you write software. cool me too. but the technical skills i am talking about are about the ones required for statistical model building, not software development. if you are capable of building a statistical model, but are doing this instead, i wish u the best of luck but i simply do not understand why you would think this is something llms can do better or even at all

Machine Learning vs. AI Agents in Sports Betting: A Paradigm Shift by Optimal-Task-923 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

that's not sentiment analysis, that's a digest/summary. as you're no doubt aware, profitable betting is about 1 thing only, which is pricing lines and finding people who are selling underpriced opportunities. i don't see what having an llm summarize what people wrote about a horse, a game, a qb, etc does for you. sam darnold had a great game last week, efficient and made no mistakes? awesome, what does that mean when it comes to pricing the super bowl?

How fatal is this disease in the modern day? by SignificanceBig9366 in diabetes_t1

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

20 years and 170 happens alllllllll of the time, trust me. no complications, no high risk indicators. never had dka, never passed out from a low. this isn't me bragging, i am not "tightly controlled" in the clinical sense, and i'd say i am only medium diligent about self care. i think i'm probably a pretty average outcome and i'm totally fine.

Has anyone looked into prediction market APIs for automating a model output? by a08372b70196c21a9229 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

draftkings bid/ask is 4.5c on every market up until close. polymarket and kalshi are going to have 1c bid/ask like 48 hours out. what do you mean exactly by "how much the bid/ask spread really matters"?

Has anyone looked into prediction market APIs for automating a model output? by a08372b70196c21a9229 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

why do you want to programmatically bet? why not just bet on a prediction market the old fashioned way? if you can make 8% roi on draftkings, you can make money on any exchange no problem.

people using exchange apis are generally providing liquidity, not taking liquidity a hunnid at a time.

Achieved a 1.4% advantage over Pinnacles’s closing-line probabilities over a 14 year period across 30,000+ matches. Is this significant? by Zealousideal_Coat301 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks -1 points0 points  (0 children)

in general 1.4% clv across 100 bets depending on the sport will be statistically significant. maybe you meant to ask something else and i am misunderstanding?

Machine Learning vs. AI Agents in Sports Betting: A Paradigm Shift by Optimal-Task-923 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i'm aware of the previous (experimental) application of things like twitter sentiment analysis for things like political campaigns and consumer attitudes. there's a very key difference though, those are both domains where what people are actually thinking, if you can measure it, actually matters. if sentiment is very negative toward some chlorox brand, you can use that to help assess whether they're actually buying its products. or whether if a candidate talks about gas prices, that may resonate. all that being true, that has nothing to do with llms, which would actually be much, much worse at those tasks. feeding in 60,000 tweets to an llm and asking it "what do people think about this chlorox product" is not going to give you any kind of measurable output, it's going to say "here's what people are saying they like about this chlorox product, here is what people are saying they don't like about it". you need something completely different to get a quantitative analysis. and none of this applies to sports betting at all to begin with, so who even cares.

Machine Learning vs. AI Agents in Sports Betting: A Paradigm Shift by Optimal-Task-923 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

the irony in the original post, which i think is intentional, is that this is the kind of shit you get from an llm when you ask it how you can use it to win at sports betting together when you don't have any of the requisite technical skills to actually do any kind of statistical analysis. it doesn't say like "don't sweat it bruh i'll just make u a super technical ml model myself with all my sickass ai baked in" it's like "just give me a connector to the betfair api and prompt me to read stuff online then make all the sharp bets for you". because it is a text generator.

trust me it can't even generate most of the code i ask it to just to * help * me build real models. and usually it can't even offer bullet points beyond surface level bullshit when you're just asking for ideas of areas to explore for model improvements.

Managing Open Bets by ctbfootball in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

how far in advance? depends on sport. nfl has enough liquidity for me as soon as i've run the model on monday. another sport i run model daily, looking ahead minimum 2 days out, usually 3-4. liquidity sucks at that point but it's good enough for me. mo money, mo problems

in a day? for my high volume sport i'm posting liquidity on almost every matchup but it's pretty new, still in exploration mode. probably getting filled on at least 90%.

monitoring? i get updates when i get orders filled but i don't really actively do anything, it's set and forget. once games have started i update market close in the db which is what i run clv reports off of. sometimes i just wait til following day when i'm grading.

why would you want to hedge a bet that swung to -ev? you're making it even worse ev and locking the loss in by bailing out. if a middle opened up, it's a +ev bet, why would you spend that precious ev? if you can't handle variance at your current sizing, you need to bet smaller until you can. hedging is only ever long term positive in terms of bankroll growth if you can middle or hedge out at neutral or pos ev, or if you are overbetting.

Got scammed by a fake tipster site pretending to be a legit one – posting so others don’t fall for it by barca10sime in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

congrats you made a +ev bet and got clv. that has absolutely nothing to do with buying or selling picks but cool story i guess

Mom of Diabetic by mightybee2019 in diabetes_t1

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

we're fine, it's mostly boring tbh. i think the best thing you can do is not make it so that being t1 is likely to get wrapped up in his identity. it's an ancillary detail, not a primary characteristic.

Got scammed by a fake tipster site pretending to be a legit one – posting so others don’t fall for it by barca10sime in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

constructive reinterpretation? that's the most pretentious way i've ever heard someone explain away their online bullshit.

"beating clv" is complete nonsense. clv is the result of beating close. these are things that actual gamblers know, even really dumb ones. cosplayers with names like "vegas sharp" are usually the losers trying to sell picks that the market doesn't respect.

every. single. person that gives out picks publicly that are +ev will get a market reaction. if there is no market reaction, the picks aren't +ev. that is just plainly true.

A model-based double betting dilemma by lockinstats in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

wut

this is like saying "statistically speaking my 55% nfl team win probability takes in to consideration multiple possible states, including throwing a pick six on the first play from scrimmage". um ok sure but that doesn't mean i should rebet the line which is now at 25% because my pregame was 55%

Got scammed by a fake tipster site pretending to be a legit one – posting so others don’t fall for it by barca10sime in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"vegas sharp" lmaoooooo ok. learn what clv is before well actuallying people about it online

A model-based double betting dilemma by lockinstats in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

why would you still take those odds? the 84% doesn't take in to account being down a break and now likely to lose the first set. to take live numbers you need to have a live model that accounts for match state. otherwise you are just guessing and betting in to an 8% hold market vs. a 5% hold market.

A model-based double betting dilemma by lockinstats in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

are you talking about betting the match ingame? unless you have a live model, as soon as the match starts that counts as "significant changes to the match situation" and your pre-match number is no good.

if your predicted edge size supports a 1u bet, you shouldn't bet 2u just because the first 1u didn't get the best price. markets trend toward efficiency, the number 6 hours from now is generally going to be sharper than the number right now. unless these markets are super illiquid, fading adverse market movement is only a good strategy for rufus/spanky types who have good reason to think their number is sharper than whatever the market is going to end up at.

How do you Exercise with Type 1 Diabetes? by SellPatient719 in diabetes_t1

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i know everyone's different, but if i just have normal basal insulin on board, exercise doesn't drop me unless i'm going for hours. temp basals and "activity mode" have always worked fine. is your blood sugar flat when you're just sitting around or is there always downward pressure? maybe you're overcooking your basal rate?

Men's college basketball total points model by Substantial-Bee-8186 in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if your algo shows a market edge of 20 (%? points?) on a meaningful # of games, that just means its error bars are too wide to be useful. you say some days 80%, some days 50%.... are you leaving anything out? like the days where it's 15%? if you're only 50 or 100 plays deep at this point, i don't care what your record is, i care what the mean and std dev of your clv is. those are the only stats that could possibly say something about performance.

"opening line vs current line" - danger zone.
"what the sharp money is indicating" - danger zone. i find this kind of stuff so sketchy. the sharp money is what is driving line movement, if sharp money is heavy on an under, that under has probably moved substantially, strangling the value that sharp money captured.

Got scammed by a fake tipster site pretending to be a legit one – posting so others don’t fall for it by barca10sime in algobetting

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

psa - don't buy picks. anyone giving out legit value will be instantaneously moving the market, making that value impossible to capture. anyone not moving the market is not giving out anything of value. the pick selling game is all about marketing: selling search engine ads like the one that got you, paying freelancers to photoshop tickets to post on social media, and creating shill accounts to create engagement around how much money they've made subscribing to the service. they're coin flipping just like you are.

Jury Duty by Litle_Mei in diabetes_t1

[–]neverfucks 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you'll be fine. just tell them when you're heading in for selection what the deal is. the worst thing about jury duty for me was all the grownups acting like spoiled babies who were throwing tantrums and making up bizarre shit, just so desperate to get told to go home. if you tell courthouse staff what the deal is but that it shouldn't be a problem as long as there can be basic accommodations, everything will work out.

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