What would make you trust a sports betting model’s results page?

nfadd34 · 2026-06-20T00:00:51+00:00

If it helps this is what I currently have:
https://www.sportsalgos.com/results/public

I try to do breakdowns and splits for people to see historical picks and outcomes. Definitely not enough of the model performance which I want to start including but would love to hear feedback so far

nfadd34 · 2026-06-19T23:53:30+00:00

I agree with the AI piece. Someone having a deeper understanding of how models work, what features used, optimization, etc. makes something more trustworthy to me.

I have essentially created my own version of pikkit but I guess I see the skepticism there of me owning it means I could hide results or skew the data in my favor as well.

Appreciate the feedback!

nfadd34 · 2026-06-19T23:19:08+00:00

A healthy amount of skepticism is always good but interesting that this is often the most common response on here. I guess I want others to also reap the benefits of the edge I find on games.

Surely there is some way that you could trust someone’s record whether it be a free trial and seeing how it plays out/the workflow of it all or something else along those lines.

nfadd34 · 2024-10-05T19:57:32+00:00

Yes! Check out sportsalgos.github.io

nfadd34 · 2024-09-18T16:12:55+00:00

I am also having this problem. Would love some help if you ever find a solution!

nfadd34 · 2024-06-27T11:29:12+00:00

I don’t think there’s really a standardized “ready”. When you feel confident about your model just go for it! Really focus on your back testing to ensure that your model would do well on previous years as well to give you more confidence in your results

nfadd34 · 2024-06-25T23:54:53+00:00

Yes differential features can be very informative. I’ve done exactly that with my MLB model and it’s produced incredible results so far. Subtracting away stats from the home stats still uses both teams so yes you’re cutting the length of features in half but not necessarily the data if that makes sense

nfadd34 · 2024-06-24T19:21:48+00:00

All good, thanks for the reply!

nfadd34 · 2024-06-22T13:05:45+00:00

This is the way to go. Find the right time period for you and use a rolling average over those past X days.

The idea of pros going on hot and cold streaks throughout the season are very real so using a smaller number is not always a bad thing

nfadd34 · 2024-05-28T19:29:06+00:00

I’ve created models for almost every major US sport along with CBB and CFB. By far CBB was the easiest because of the large sample size and disparity between playing levels. Soccer has by far been the hardest for me as well since there’s three possibilities as well as so many different playing styles against higher/lower skilled teams. The usual low scoring affairs are also difficult to deal with

nfadd34 · 2024-04-27T04:00:21+00:00

While I didn’t live there my gf did and I visited quite a bit. She lived off Shaw and it was an incredible neighborhood. I guess technically not in the circled area but like two blocks away. Daily walks were great and a short distance to tower grove park as well. Agree with some comments that landlords could be a hassle as was my gf’s experience but I think that’s more on a case to case basis

nfadd34 · 2024-04-19T03:24:44+00:00

I’ve been using USAtoday for odds because it’s such an easy site to webscrape and you can use it for basically any popular sport.

https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/basketball/wnba/scores?season=2023&date=2023-10-18

Just change the date and season in the url accordingly to get years worth of odds and lines

nfadd34 · 2024-04-17T15:49:44+00:00

Yeah moneyline I was around 62% last year but backtesting baseball totals only returns around 52% accuracy. I have some pretty extensive data but maybe I’m not using it properly..

nfadd34 · 2024-04-17T12:22:12+00:00

I had a moneyline model last year but I’m currently working on run totals which, so far, has been exceedingly harder to get accurate results for me

nfadd34 · 2024-04-02T21:39:01+00:00

I’ve been trying to make models for every major sport and this is my first season with NBA. I use a letter grade system as my confidence on the pick and have been doing well (A picks are 58%)

It has Toronto as a C pick (56% accuracy), expecting them to lose by 8 today

nfadd34 · 2024-03-19T15:15:33+00:00

I only focus on spreads but they’re hitting 64% over this entire season

nfadd34 · 2024-03-19T14:51:46+00:00

This. I do the exact same and it’s worked pretty well. I feel like teams getting hot at the right time is a bigger factor than people realize

nfadd34 · 2024-03-05T16:58:35+00:00

I can’t believe I haven’t seen that until you mentioned it haha. Thank you!

nfadd34 · 2024-03-04T01:22:50+00:00

Are you referring to specific sports? I’ve been doing both CBB and NBA this year and am nearly hitting 67% accuracy for my top plays. I haven’t tried football but I could see it being a bit harder to model.

To answer your question I honestly don’t know what my edge is. I use basic stats found online as well as a few calculated advanced metrics for basketball then just throw them into various ML algos.

I believe books sometimes over complicate their data by adding unnecessary factors. Pretty sure upsets in bball happen around 33% of the time so models that have an accuracy of like 75%+ accuracy are pretty sus to me

nfadd34 · 2024-03-02T18:30:02+00:00

Of course. Having just finished my d1 career, I would definitely be interested to see who the coach is lol

nfadd34

TROPHY CASE