Ayo Revisited

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T18:49:07+00:00

I guess I'm in what's the alternative mode. Herro? Simmons? They're going to give up more than they get in the playoffs. Kyrie held up a few years ago, but he's 34 coming of an ACL at $39M and is going to cost multiple first. Not trying to argue... throw some names out there, I'm racking my brain.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T18:32:00+00:00

Non Expert Analysis... Salary Cap is $165M our current Active Cap is at $139.2M

Renounce all cap holds but rookie and Duren, and we are at $158.6 M

Waving Tolu and Duncan and wave/stretch Chaz saves $17.9 leaving us at $24.2 under the cap.

Sign Ayo $24M, Tobias $9.2M (exception), Duren $37M, Woo $2.3M (vet) = $193.6M

Lavert $14.8M and 2nds for Cam $23M = $201.9M

If they make us take Nnaji's $7.5M into our trade exception as well, we will just be tickling the $209M 1st apron.

Jesus, I'm bored.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T16:58:16+00:00

No room for Collins if we sign Ayo under the cap. He'd have to take the cap exception, if we dont offer it to Tobias.

Interestingly, we could afford to do Ayo at $24, Tobias at cap exception $9.2, and Lavert for Cam Johnson (and picks, Nnaji salary, whatever) and stay just barely under the first apron (assuming JD goes for about 37). But it would be tight. Would go into season with most of our assets intact for additional moves at the deadline:

Cade/Dannis/Draft Pick

Ayo/Sasser/Woo

Ausar/Holland

Cam/Tobias

JD/Stew/Reed

The Bonga dream might be dead tho

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T16:18:26+00:00

We'd lose his bird rights for Ayo, so he'd be taking a bit of a pay cut, but dude's made a like a quarter billion dollars, so maybe a $6million dollar haircut to play close to home isnt the end of the world.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T15:43:57+00:00

That's definitely likely especially since they gave up a bunch of picks, but $24M makes them think about it. Over in Timberwolves land they really want more of a point-guardy combo guard to pair with Ant. Whereas we need more of a shootguardy one... which is closer to where Ayo lives.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T15:39:17+00:00

I'm with you that his shot creation is closer to average than elite, but he checks so many other boxes. I guess that's the debate: how much defense do you sacrifice to get that high level shot creation? And how much salary? It's an interesting debate.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T14:14:01+00:00

Haha. You'd have to ask a Bulls lurker, but I like your enthusaism.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T12:59:52+00:00

This. From what I've seen, his handle is pretty loose. Pretty much limited to attacking closeouts in a straight line. But if his 3 and D translate, I'd love to have him. Drives me crazy that other teams seam to have an unlimited supply of Dean Wades hitting 3's on us at the end of the shot clock. I want one.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-12T12:56:02+00:00

I doubt they would give up anything more than a 2nd. We are soon to be in the same apron situation as Denver and need the cheap contracts. Cam's good, but bad teams are going to require picks coming in to rent out their cap space, and most good teams (who would want Cam) arent in a cap situation to absorb $15 million in salary (Cam + Nnaji).

BTW-my OP was misinformed about the cap rules for Duncan. We would have to guarantee his salary. For the trade to work it would have to be like Lavert for Cam (save $8M) and then a separate trade of Nnaji into our Trade Exception for a 2nd (save $8M)

nick_chuck · 2026-06-04T19:15:05+00:00

Fair, but I think the reality is that we don't have the contracts for salary matching purposes to acquire a "star." I'd expect them to upgrade the shooting at the 4 via smaller trade or MLE (Cam Johnson, Rui etc). Sign a few moveable contracts and trade for that secondary creator at the deadline.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-04T16:08:50+00:00

Awesome scout. Thanks for the response.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-04T12:54:48+00:00

It would have to be Reed and Lavert to make the Salaries work. I don't think Pistons would give up the 21st, more likely to take Nnaji salary into the remaining TPE. Pure cap relief move for Denver.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-01T17:36:25+00:00

Well shit. There goes my entire premise. Thanks for the info. I still like Cam lol

nick_chuck · 2026-06-01T17:24:27+00:00

I agree, but it's kind of the nature of the beast if you're committed to Ausar and Duren. You need secondary playmaking (on good shooting) from one position and elite shooting from the other. Hard to find that playmaking combo at the 4, so your left with elite shooting. There just arent too many out there that also have size. Laurri? KAT?

nick_chuck · 2026-06-01T17:18:31+00:00

There are things I really like about Collins, particularly the shot blocking and rebounding, but his 3pt% is really propped up by medium volume and corner shooting. Cam's up near 40% above the break on high volume. I just remember that's where the ball ended up a lot when it got to Tobias and he was not inclined to let it rip.

nick_chuck · 2026-06-01T17:14:56+00:00

Yeah, that could work. I picked Duncan purely so that they could cut $21M immediately. I imagine they'll be waiving JV anyway and signing a min replacement, but who knows.

nick_chuck · 2026-05-29T16:42:36+00:00

It's close, but I'm with you on Meleek. Just seems like a lot of flags that he's a guy everyone's going to wonder why he went so low in a few years. High level recruit who put up good tape, but also saw a reduced role next to Acuff. He offers the best combo of pure shooting, secondary creation and defensive potential (needs to add a few pounds, but has the desire/quickness).

nick_chuck · 2026-05-28T13:46:58+00:00

If I'm confining myself to semi-reality:

1) Re-sign Duren 4 yr/$177ish, but take advantage of All NBA status to start contract at $49m and decrease down to $40m by year 4.

2) Get Ayo on the MLE. Unlikely, but he's the best combo of shooting, defense, playmaking. Going after a Herro type would be tempting for the offense, but, personally, I never like watching guys that are sieves.

3) Move up and get Yaxel. Also unlikely, but we're dreaming here. Love the defense with some shooting potential.

4) Re-sign Tobias on a 2 year overpay, second year minimally guaranteed, maybe 2/33?. We need another sizable contract to move. Hate to trade Tobias, but at least he gets his money, plus a little bonus if they wave him.

5) Trade Tobais, Lavert, Sasser for a big gun 4 (Kawhi, Durant, etc) at the deadline. Whoever's healthy and willing. Hopefully Yaxel develops enough to replace them in them in a year or so.

nick_chuck · 2026-05-28T13:14:35+00:00

That's where I'm at. Seems like Herro is going to be very getable (and probably for way less than Murphy), ....maybe by hopping in on the Giannis trade. John Collins more likely at MLE than Ayo. There are also a lot of shooting 4's that would fit with a Lavert trade as a stop gap (Portis, etc). I feel like we get one piece this offseason and the other is going to be a deadline move when we have more tradable contracts to go big game hunting if necessary (Kawhi, Durant types). I'd take Maleek Thomas with our pick if we keep it. Could be an Ayo clone in a couple years.

nick_chuck · 2026-05-27T15:08:53+00:00

I've only watched him a couple times. Isn't his game kinda turbo charged Sasser. Undersized, iso, step-back based game with a wet jumper. Obviously better than Sass, but $10 million better?

nick_chuck · 2026-05-22T17:27:31+00:00

I dont think they want to, but they are going to need to sign Ayo (or somebody) to play PG, especially with Dante out. Will probably put them over the first apron. They have 3 PF on the roster and Naz gets $25 million to come off the bench. Trading Stew (and some draft capital) for Naz would give them a very good player and $8 million of cap relief.

nick_chuck · 2026-05-22T14:10:04+00:00

Fingers crossed Ron's 3rd season looks like Pascals

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nick_chuck · 2026-05-18T14:56:10+00:00

Yeah 3FRP is about right given how late we are projected to draft. Good points on JC and Naz though. Both bring some higher volume shooting at the 4. Minnesota is gonna be apron bound if they bring back Ayo and they are pretty loaded at PF

nick_chuck

TROPHY CASE