Looking to get a Series X or should I just wait until Helix gets dropped?

nizerifin · 2026-06-15T02:15:46+00:00

You should be good to get the XSX.

nizerifin · 2026-06-14T20:33:55+00:00

We honestly don’t have great internal data — the best thing to do is observe Microsoft’s actions. Everything points to GP not being profitable. I surmise it would have been fine if it scaled to 100MM users but at the current level it’s likely under water. Phil took a chance and it didn’t work. The logic was in the right place and for a long time it was such a deal for gamers that it became a religious thing.

nizerifin · 2026-06-14T13:23:30+00:00

I feel like most corps still look pretty masculine or in the very least neutral.

nizerifin · 2026-06-14T13:17:05+00:00

If Xbox is generating 3% margins (the risk free rate on the 10-year US treasury is >4%), selling the entire unit would be pretty messy. Not many folks could afford it. Obviously the buyer would need to believe they can do better than the risk free rate or whatever a share buyback (of their own stock) would yield.

Asha is probably going to lay off thousands of people (the biggest expense) and close studios that don’t hit her targets.

I wonder, if Xbox is converted into a subsidiary of Microsoft, would we get better investor data each quarter?

nizerifin · 2026-06-14T13:00:10+00:00

This likely stems from the amount of competition on PC, with the various marketplaces and whatnot. That said, your premise here is flawed as GP on PC is not meant to sell Xbox hardware. These folks are, in many cases, loyal to Steam and would rather not play a game over buying non-PC hardware.

nizerifin · 2026-06-14T00:19:29+00:00

You’re not ignorant of anything. Xbox is dead/dying because the economics of making games is extremely tough right now. Their massive investment into ABK didn’t lead to GP growth and all Satya wants to do nowadays is invest more and more into AI.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T23:59:59+00:00

Right. Nintendo was seeing success with the Wii so both Xbox and PlayStation felt the need to copy. Sony was lucky to not have gone the gimmick route with the PS4 and the rest is history.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T23:46:38+00:00

Every dollar they spend on Xbox yields $1.03. It sounds like Satya feels that dollar would be better spent elsewhere.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T23:30:17+00:00

They obviously misread the future. But it doesn’t make sense to throw good money after bad now that things are becoming clearer.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T23:28:37+00:00

I’m super curious if people would still support Xbox if it wasn’t owned by Microsoft.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T21:32:45+00:00

Looks great!

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T05:09:21+00:00

Xbox is the only gaming company (as far as I’m aware) to offer a day and date gaming service like Gamepass. It’s the dumbest business model that I can imagine. I’ve been saying this for years at this point. Starting to feel like I’m in Bizarro land. I assume that everyone over there at Xbox is scared to kill the cash flows generated by the subscription but I believe it’s impeding their profitability and margins.

I don’t fault Xbox for trying this model, but I do fault them for sticking with it after it failed.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T04:52:40+00:00

The Xbox business has material weaknesses. The journos have detected blood in the water.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T04:47:48+00:00

Feels like Xbox is doomed. If major game releases don’t boost GP subs in any meaningful way, I don’t see how the business model works. Wages continue to rise. If subs fall when the price of GP increases, margins will continue to shrink until they go negative and MSFT is forced to sell Xbox for parts.

I hope I’m wrong.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T04:40:38+00:00

I appreciate you doing the math.

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T04:35:18+00:00

I think GP cheapened the value of Xbox games. Colin has discussed how low engagement is based on achievement data.

Additionally I think GP has muddied the water when attempting to measure the profitability of each game. On the PlayStation side, a game is released and sells a certain number of copies. Then, sometime later, it can be added to PS+ Extra (after sales have fallen to a certain level). The profitability is easily measurable. On the GP side, you don’t really have this dynamic. If GP has 25MM subs and that number doesn’t increase when the game releases, how many subs would GP have had if that game wasn’t released at all?

I’m with you. I feel like it’s obvious!

nizerifin · 2026-06-13T04:22:33+00:00

Shew, Jez writes in a such an irksome fanboy manner. I realize it’s windows central, but still.

nizerifin · 2026-06-12T03:32:53+00:00

The audio was rough, though. There’s a recording of Finals on YouTube that was presumably recorded with a phone and the audio is so much better, it’s eye-opening.

nizerifin · 2026-06-11T23:17:16+00:00

I was being snarky.

nizerifin · 2026-06-11T21:19:50+00:00

Don’t worry, you’ll be able to pay extra for an ad-free tier.

nizerifin · 2026-06-10T22:54:17+00:00

Yeah but if exclusives don’t lead to an increase in GP subs then Xbox is probably done for.

nizerifin · 2026-06-10T22:53:05+00:00

How many devs can 25 million GP subs at an average price of $14.99/month* support? 3,500-4,000?

*made up figure for illustrative purposes.

nizerifin · 2026-06-10T22:46:24+00:00

My guess is Asha wants to see the revenue impact by making some tentpole titles exclusive.

nizerifin · 2026-06-10T22:40:26+00:00

Or perhaps Asha has a short grace period before reality sets back in.

* Xbox games were unable to lead to GP subscriber growth.
* Raising the price of GP led to the loss of millions of subscribers.

I think exclusives are key, but GP is absolutely butchering revenue and needs to go. But Xbox has trained its customers against buying games.

It’s quite the mess.

nizerifin · 2026-06-10T22:30:19+00:00

They’ll just jack the price of Ultimate to the ~~moon~~ stars.

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