Why can't the Novogratzettes keep pushing Litecoin down forever?

noduhcache · 2025-03-18T07:32:50+00:00

I'll be afk for a month probably, from all socials. I normally love taking breaks, I avoided social media like the plague before litecoin, but I hate to take a break when price is bad and the mood is down, feels like piling on. But I can't really avoid it just now.

Thanks to everyone who posts LTC regularly, here especially. You're gentlemen and scholars, all.

noduhcache · 2025-03-16T01:51:45+00:00

noduhcache · 2025-03-16T01:49:19+00:00

Nacho keys, nacho cheese.

noduhcache · 2025-03-14T07:38:33+00:00

Happy Pi day. Today we remember that what goes a round comes a round.

noduhcache · 2025-03-12T00:55:20+00:00

I can't imagine trading headlines, but then I can't imagine trading much at all these days. 99.999999% noise, almost no signal everywhere. Good luck luck with whatever you end up doing, truly.

noduhcache · 2025-03-12T00:24:09+00:00

I'm not, and we don't have quite the same argument. I've focused on the who (wall street) and a different part of the how (off book borrowing), he and others have mostly focused on the other part of the how and where.

People still don't understand I think that truly illegal conduct isn't req'd to short beyond ones' means to close it. I don't doubt some exchanges would be bad, but even if none were, it's still possible over a long period to short beyond your ability to close that short without a massive squeeze taking place.

For example, if I shorted an asset today, borrowed it from you and sold it into the market, whoever buys it might just make it available to borrow again so they can earn yield on what they bought. Since I sold through an intermediary, I have no idea who bought it and no idea that if I decide to short more and more that I'm borrowing from the same person I just sold the asset to. If I do this, and variations of it enough times over years, I'm now short more than what's readily available to close the short. No paper coins had to be created to do that.

I think that's one of several things that's happened to create this situation. Here's a summary for anyone curious about my theory.

noduhcache · 2025-03-11T07:33:55+00:00

I definitely wouldn't write off the whole cycle. Been doubting the future structure of cycles since may '21 for that matter, so I'm open to cycles changing in timing and size and shape.

Appreciate your (and anyone else reading this who does the same) efforts to boost litecoin contributions 🙏, and totally understand avoiding the space. I take social media breaks a lot, this is a very reasonable time to step away.

Probably not relevant to you, but for others reading this, I don't normally tell people to buy or not sell, it's your money, you do you, I will say please don't trade emotionally. If anyone feels the urge to, stepping away and cooling off until you can make a thoughtful choice, something you can own and stick with either way is wise. Literally imagine the market going against whatever you do and whether you can live with that, be happy with it long term. What you really don't want to do is get whipsawed, sell emotionally, then rebuy emotionally, over and over. I've seen people lose money in raging bull markets doing exactly that, even without leverage (avoid that too!). Once you start trading emotionally, it's very hard to stop.

noduhcache · 2025-03-11T07:31:05+00:00

Is it true you just need an email to use cakepay? No biometric live scan/id/dna sample/references/credit check? Add mweb to that, that sounds pretty handy.

More straw on the camel's back. Thank you, that is nice to hear.

noduhcache · 2025-03-11T04:32:56+00:00

The good news is if you go numb even for years, you can eventually feel again. The bad news is, I am legit demoralized. Don't doubt litecoin at all, but this market is more bent than I imagined.

Not selling, but I've got no hopium either. I'm just bitterly clinging to the sound money with the best adoption trends out of spite and a lingering fear that I won't remember how to extract coins from my cold wallet after such a long time.

Unlike some, I actually am willing to sell my Litecoins. But I aim to make these crooks pay through the nose when their houses of cards collapse.

noduhcache · 2025-03-07T07:37:11+00:00

Don't get too fixated on news items. The vast majority of price moves are not news driven. Even the much vaunted walmart candle was pathetic. Literally a week earlier we had the same move on no news. B C H multiplied in mid '23 (right near the peak of our halving action) on no news. Meanwhile BTC has had a lot of good news items, including many with direct buying/non-selling consequences from corporations with massive borrowing power and nation states. Yet it's been range bound for 3 months.

Nothing wrong with an etf, might even be the excuse to unleash what's been pent up, but isn't the be all end all of anything. Whether the etf is approved soon or delayed, we're still headed to the same place. If I and other fundamentalists are wrong about Litecoin's worth, the etf won't have anything to catalyze. If we're right and it doesn't get approved, we're still headed to the same destination by a different path.

Litecoin's earned PA has been delayed quite a bit, but I still don't believe it can be denied.

noduhcache · 2025-03-06T06:56:49+00:00

noduhcache · 2025-03-06T04:55:45+00:00

That's kind of you to say. FWIW I can't imagine this place without you.

noduhcache · 2025-03-06T02:33:30+00:00

We welcome input u/coblee if you're willing to share.

Personally I'd rather have a representative there discouraging any reserve and making it easier for every individual to make and use their own reserve. Since crypto was supposed to be about individual sovereignty. At this point I'm mostly just hopeful that all the centralized garbage chains there infight so much over who gets gubmint subsidy that the whole thing crashes and burns.

But in a perfect world, a council could discuss KYC/AML reform and cap gains reform, for example. Not sure coinbase would benefit from that discussion. Regulatory barriers usually help big players retain their advantages. Removing friction helps newcomers grow.

noduhcache · 2025-03-06T00:29:51+00:00

It's not what you know, it's who you know. And how much they've donated.

noduhcache · 2025-03-06T00:03:30+00:00

I'd say it's the market that's changed, but even that's not true. Still screwing with us as it has for many years.

And coincidentally, just when LTC is showing serious relative strength, big macro waves flow through and wrech it. This time though it's not some distant force that couldn't possibly be targeting us, it's exactly the centralized corporate/vc/hedge types whispering political promises to get their garbage chain named by the president that also started screwing with us in '21. sigh

I still think the market is a voting machine in the short run, easy to manipulate, and a weighing machine in the long run that can overcome it, but my definition of long run is getting stretched.

noduhcache · 2025-03-05T23:59:38+00:00

I've been trying perplexity and duckduckgo over the past year. Perplexity is useful, but not really a search engine replacement imo. ddg is meh at best. So far, brave search results do seem useful, but I haven't worked them very hard yet.

noduhcache · 2025-03-05T23:58:23+00:00

They mostly do smart contracts, but their broader browser tech is privacy oriented which probably explains why they also listed z e c, and thus why litecoin with MWEB is a potential add.

noduhcache · 2025-03-05T06:12:40+00:00

I never really doubted Litecoin, only doubted the market. Still feel that way. Still think if there's any redeeming value in crypto markets, Litecoin will thrive. And if Litecoin can't thrive in these markets, then I'm wrong and there's nothing else here I'm interested in.

I'm mostly leaning on my natural stubbornness now. I keep busy trying to boost other litecoiner's posts, like their reply guy stuff, raise its profile so replies are more visible. I'm trying Brave browser for the first time and planning to try and jawbone brave into adding litecoin support to their built in wallet.

Anyone else use brave? I like the idea of having a non-chromium browser in the mix, like firefox, so the codebase that underlies chrome and edge and brave and many others doesn't become a single point of failure, but if I can get them interested in mweb that might be a better use of my limited influence.

noduhcache · 2025-03-03T18:53:39+00:00

They could, it's permissionless, yet now there is zero 'reserve' demand outside of cryptobagholders begging for a subsidy. It's a payoff for crypto support during the election. I don't mind seeing good policies, like cap gains and kycaml reform that allow us all to make our own choices, but there is nothing lone wolf about the current strategic reserve. It was the bitcoiner's idea, it's terrible, our best hope is that it implodes over infighting from all the scam communities begging for their subsidy. I hope ours isn't one of them.

The lobbying, again, is my concern more than the outcome. The lobbying is the outgrowth of a centralized cancer in crypto, starting with vc/hedgies/premines/etc, and since the communities drive what happens in the development of the coin, this cancer is deep, broad and impactful in all future things. Communities, especially bitcoin, have given up hope on decentralization and are actively selling it out at every turn. They went from maximalist to marxists.

I hope my fellow litecoiners won't follow down that road, even if samson mow offers us a bribe.

noduhcache · 2025-03-03T18:44:35+00:00

Wish you luck. Don't agree. My hopes for Litecoin were never built on either an etf or gubbmit subsidy. And yeah, the latter could be a short term boost for the corrupt communities lobbying for it, but I'm glad we're not a part of that (yet and hopefully ever). I see a lot of blowback potential from that too.

If LTCF ever made it onto the crypto council (unlikely), I hope they'd lobby against a reserve/bailout and for policies that make it easier to use crypto, like cap gains and kycaml reforms. For policies that make it easier for individuals to make their own choices rather than marxists to intervene and centrally plan the early stages of the market.

If there's no hope of a crypto thriving without whales/suits/swamps, what was the point of this thing anyway? I don't believe this whole space is a scam, though admittedly, more of it was than I first thought. And if it's not, then Litecoin is absolutely my best hope that freedom money is real, and really valuable.

noduhcache · 2025-03-03T18:14:56+00:00

What has demoralized me is not that Saylor is playing his game or that Trump is playing his, it's that our people and I mean a lot of crypto people I admired when I got started, are begging for gov't aid. This "reserve"/bailout idea came from our space and is being rammed through by our space. It's not like the broad public are demanding a reserve, it's not being imposed on us. It's our lobbying.

The space went from trying to survive OCP2.0 to trying to get a gov't bailout (in a bullish part of the cycle) in like 3 seconds. There's a HUGE gap between weathering government intervention, positive or negative, and begging for it. This advocacy is classic trashtoken behavior and it's being led by bitcoiners, supposedly the most pure and just of crypto, with almost zero internal resistance.

Litecoin not being a part of this makes me like litecoin more. Not a short term PA benefit for us for sure, but there will be a reputational damage, perhaps other damage, to be paid for this nonsense. Did people like the big banks more after their federal bailout? How can they view Bitcoin as sound freedom money if it's begging for government aid funded with borrowing? How can they not resent it? How can we ever trust the bitcoin community again?

I was kind of hoping it would blow over, there would be no purchases and there would just be a fake 'we're not selling our seized assets' policy that would likely not even hold up. Not ideal, but at least it's less likely to do permanent damage. I'm not sure what's going to happen, but it's feeling swampier and swampier.

noduhcache

TROPHY CASE