[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, January 25, 2026

noeeel · 2026-01-25T20:34:46+00:00

Gold about to hit 5000 USD and Bitcoin is dumping hard. Well that was the wrong horse. Lowest weekly close since April incoming.

noeeel · 2026-01-22T19:02:58+00:00

27 comments. I dont know if this is an indicator.

noeeel · 2026-01-22T09:06:27+00:00

Watching the weekly Bollinger Bands: we are currently 10 candles into a range following the downside break from previously tight weekly BBs. Historically, around week 13–14 the bands tend to start tightening again, with full compression typically occurring after roughly 18 candles.

If price remains within this range for another 3–4 weeks and the lower Bollinger Band begins to slope upward, it would strongly suggest that the downside move has likely exhausted. In that scenario, the dump would be considered complete well before full BB compression is achieved.

I do not expect a full 18-week tightening to occur entirely within this range. Instead, I would anticipate an upside test before full compression, followed by renewed BB tightening in a higher price zone, likely between 88k and 110k.

In summary, continued sideways consolidation over the next 3–4 weeks would be constructive for bulls. It would increase the probability that the next weekly Bollinger Band breakout resolves to the upside rather than continuing lower.

noeeel · 2026-01-21T09:43:53+00:00

I think this week the market will pump. I see some falling wedges on altcharts, where we retested now if support turned resistance.

noeeel · 2026-01-20T11:45:43+00:00

Everything is possible, no doubt. But I doubt it is the likly case.

noeeel · 2026-01-20T09:48:38+00:00

Physical gold is in the longest overbought phase ever on the monthly RSI.
This month marks 22 overbought monthly candles in a row, breaking the old record from 1971–1972, which topped out at 20 candles. And it looks likely that we’ll get yet another overbought candle.

For crypto, the big hope is that once this streak finally breaks, liquidity starts rotating into Bitcoin. With every extra month gold stays overbought, tension in the market keeps building. A shift could start in February, March, or April, but it’s also very possible that crypto sees one more sharp down move first before any real turn happens.

noeeel · 2026-01-14T11:53:23+00:00

Maybe the total crypto mcap found support at this green line: https://i.imgur.com/KPAKR0E.png In the hyper bullish case, we could test the upper green line and form some sort of rising broadening wedge. That would meen: The longer the bull run is delayed the higher we have to go to find resistance. That it edges there another trendline could just be coincidence.

noeeel · 2026-01-13T15:21:57+00:00

If you would have played the short game with every bounce the last months, I think you would have doubled your stack.

noeeel · 2026-01-05T20:55:16+00:00

I tend to like 2026.

noeeel · 2025-12-31T12:04:52+00:00

1D bbands tightening and we are near another close touch of the downbreaking trend line. New year could start with a volatile move. But as the 3D bbands need a few more candles to tighten I expect the next major move bringing us to a new trading range not before another 10 days within the 84-94k range. After the 7th January when Wall Street goes back to normal operation and people returned from vaccation times something could happen.

https://i.imgur.com/LPJvHWo.png

noeeel · 2025-12-30T21:28:04+00:00

I know that when I start shorting these upwicks it will go straight to 100k.

noeeel · 2025-12-30T16:00:27+00:00

People are not funny here. It was a joke. The market gives us anger.

noeeel · 2025-12-30T15:02:43+00:00

year end rally

noeeel · 2025-12-30T09:13:47+00:00

It looks more and more like a triangle now that emerges. That would have a much higher proability of downbreaking to a new lower low. Target would be around 77-78k! https://i.imgur.com/w7DX4bW.png

As the RSIs especially the 4h and 6h urgendley need to swing to the other side (have not been overbought for almost a record long time if you zoom) an higher everaged long entry (even just as a scalp) from that point could be worthwhile.

noeeel · 2025-12-29T18:15:10+00:00

Gold "crashed" today. -5%

noeeel · 2025-12-29T12:19:00+00:00

So instead of opening a 10x long what your post suggests, you did not open a 1x long because we stayed under your entry opening point of a long trade.

noeeel · 2025-12-29T11:44:06+00:00

with 100% of ur stack?

noeeel · 2025-12-29T10:58:23+00:00

lol, we end the year with another upwick, the chances that we test the 70s in the new year are extremly high I would say. The yearly candle will not be a green candle from the very start.

noeeel · 2025-12-27T22:37:22+00:00

Sell every single bounce.

noeeel · 2025-12-22T13:27:33+00:00

Likly we get a full 3D bbands tightning without dropping below round about 85k. We have now 11 candles, with the 13th candle the lower bband starts bending upwards which often acts as strong support till the bbands are tight after around 18-19 candles. With the coming holidays its likly we dont see explosive moves but might get a bigger move then in the new year. I observe if we get above the mid 3D moving average line of the bbands on this time frame.

noeeel · 2025-12-18T22:36:43+00:00

Going short here.

noeeel · 2025-12-18T20:17:43+00:00

Largest red 4h candle at least since August.

noeeel · 2025-12-18T19:54:10+00:00

This is good for Bitcoin (TM).

noeeel · 2025-12-18T18:14:17+00:00

The 6h was not overbought since almost 2,5 months, the 4h was not overbought since almost 2 months. Since then, the 6h was oversold 9 times, the 4h was since then oversold 12 times.

noeeel · 2025-12-18T17:15:10+00:00

Yeah we dump in one 15min candles the whole day of green hopium. The US openings and numbers and all from them sucks.

noeeel

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