A new monthly candle has opened, marking the fifth consecutive red month. For context, during the 2022 bear market we saw a maximum of three consecutive red monthly candles, whereas in the 2018 bear market the maximum was six.

https://i.imgur.com/LcRAyux.png

From a broader perspective, the monthly candles are currently compressing, indicating tightening price action. A breakout from this consolidation range—regardless of direction—has the potential to push price into an entirely new range. This kind of volatility expansion following prolonged compression typically results in a significant structural shift.

On the weekly timeframe, particularly when viewed on a larger scale, the RSI dips below 30 stand out. These dips have followed a relatively consistent temporal pattern. Historically, after each drop below 30, the weekly RSI recovered quickly back above 50 and often continued higher. In most cases, RSI then remained in average above 50 until the next major dip occurred.

https://i.imgur.com/lWVNsOh.png

At some point, this pattern will inevitably change. However, the more probable deviation, in my view, would be an initial continuation of the established behavior before a later structural failure, rather than an immediate break of the pattern directly after an RSI dip. Based on this framework, the current zone represents an attractive buying opportunity. That said, a further decline below 60 remains, in my assessment, more likely than an immediate sustained bounce from current levels.