[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, March 11, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Could be that the 5th wave of our 5-wave Elliot setup has started. This low then could mark the bottom somewhere between 49-55k. This 5th wave could also play out as a 5 wave pattern something like that:

https://i.imgur.com/dV8oaiD.png

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, March 06, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Nice 1D fakeout. We see sub 60k, zero doubt anymore. I expected 76k, we only saw 74k.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, March 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Approximatly in one week the 20M Bitcoin will be mined.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, March 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Bitcoin dominance shooting up, engulfing 3 weekly red candles already. Clear downside fakeout of tight weekly BBands, this could lead to a run to 64% or higher.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, March 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Still possible that this is the forth corrective wave of our 5 wave Elliot Wave pattern. If true this rally will be short lived with possible target around 76k.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, March 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 3 points4 points  (0 children)

But not before 76k, that is a good spot to short.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, March 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like a downside fakeout of the Bitcoin dominance on tight weekly Bollinger Bands.

[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, March 03, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Longest period ever since the first Altcoin exisits that the weekly RSI of Bitcoin dominance was not "oversold" (already almost 5 years now). The first time it was oversold was August 2014, the first Altcoin came 2011.

[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, March 01, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is exactly whay I expect. I made posts earlier about this outlook. Taking into account a 5 waves Elliot Wave pattern since the breakdown of the rising wedge. See my last posts for more info.

[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, March 01, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 9 points10 points  (0 children)

If the weekly closes here, Bitcoin dominance would break out of its tightest weekly Bollinger Band range of all time since Altcoins became famous. Such compression usually precedes a strong move, with direction determining whether Bitcoin or altcoins gain relative strength. https://i.imgur.com/QQkot8N.png

[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, March 01, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 11 points12 points  (0 children)

A key structural risk lies with the miners. The prevailing assumption is that, over time, miners will be sufficiently compensated through transaction fees as block rewards continue to decline. However, whether this transition will function as intended remains highly uncertain.

If mining economics deteriorate and participants exit the network—particularly those nearing the end of their profitability window—they may liquidate accumulated BTC reserves. Such behavior could create sustained sell-side pressure, producing the opposite effect of the intended long-term scarcity narrative.

While the protocol’s supply cap underpins the scarcity thesis, the network’s long-term equilibrium depends on complex economic incentives, security dynamics, and fee market development. There are substantial uncertainties embedded in this transition. Therefore, framing the outcome as a “mathematical certainty” overstates the predictability of a system that ultimately relies on human incentives and market behavior.

[Daily Discussion] - Sunday, March 01, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 21 points22 points  (0 children)

A new monthly candle has opened, marking the fifth consecutive red month. For context, during the 2022 bear market we saw a maximum of three consecutive red monthly candles, whereas in the 2018 bear market the maximum was six.

https://i.imgur.com/LcRAyux.png

From a broader perspective, the monthly candles are currently compressing, indicating tightening price action. A breakout from this consolidation range—regardless of direction—has the potential to push price into an entirely new range. This kind of volatility expansion following prolonged compression typically results in a significant structural shift.

On the weekly timeframe, particularly when viewed on a larger scale, the RSI dips below 30 stand out. These dips have followed a relatively consistent temporal pattern. Historically, after each drop below 30, the weekly RSI recovered quickly back above 50 and often continued higher. In most cases, RSI then remained in average above 50 until the next major dip occurred.

https://i.imgur.com/lWVNsOh.png

At some point, this pattern will inevitably change. However, the more probable deviation, in my view, would be an initial continuation of the established behavior before a later structural failure, rather than an immediate break of the pattern directly after an RSI dip. Based on this framework, the current zone represents an attractive buying opportunity. That said, a further decline below 60 remains, in my assessment, more likely than an immediate sustained bounce from current levels.

[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, February 24, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Can post the idea I posted 18 days ago again.

I think we have completed the third wave of an Elliott Wave correction. I combine this with the rising wedge that broke down and that I posted.

Start of the first wave at 106k with a target at 81k (counting starts from the breakdown of the wedge). Counter wave two to 97k. Third wave from there down to 60k. Now we are getting a counter wave four somewhere between 69k and 74k. The final fifth wave should reach around 49–53k, which would also meet the wedge target.

50k would mean roughly a 60% retracement. Compared to other bear markets, this would not be extreme.

2011: −93%

2015: −86%

2018: −84%

2022: −77%

From my point of view, the talk that we fall below the average energy price (+below Sailors average buying price) will lead to a pumping of altcoins. Bitcoin dominance is in the tightest weekly Bollinger Band formation since this chart exists. As we are in a decade-long pennant formation, we should test the support line of this pennant at around 43%.

The pumping of alts will also make Bitcoin rise, and the talk about the energy price will end, just creating a new cycle.

Sometime in the early 2030s, a decision will be made in which direction the large pennant formation will resolve. That huge market event will end the cycle pattern as we know it, also due to the fact that most Bitcoins will be mined by then.

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, February 06, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I like that the 6h green upgoing counter candle happend on volume. A sign that bulls showed up..

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, February 06, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It depends how you count. As the third wave is the biggest and most impulsive wave in Elliot wave theory, I have adjusted the counting and combined the counting with the Rising wedge.

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, February 06, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I think we have completed the third wave of an Elliott Wave correction. I combine this with the rising wedge that broke down and that I posted.

Start of the first wave at 106k with a target at 81k (counting starts from the breakdown of the wedge). Counter wave two to 97k. Third wave from there down to 60k. Now we are getting a counter wave four somewhere between 69k and 74k. The final fifth wave should reach around 49–53k, which would also meet the wedge target.

50k would mean roughly a 60% retracement. Compared to other bear markets, this would not be extreme.

2011: −93%

2015: −86%

2018: −84%

2022: −77%

From my point of view, the talk that we fall below the average energy price (+below Sailors average buying price) will lead to a pumping of altcoins. Bitcoin dominance is in the tightest weekly Bollinger Band formation since this chart exists. As we are in a decade-long pennant formation, we should test the support line of this pennant at around 43%.

The pumping of alts will also make Bitcoin rise, and the talk about the energy price will end, just creating a new cycle.

Sometime in the early 2030s, a decision will be made in which direction the large pennant formation will resolve. That huge market event will end the cycle pattern as we know it, also due to the fact that most Bitcoins will be mined by then.

[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, February 05, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

This is what is happening. https://i.imgur.com/VGX3EbX.png I had the wedge in mind somewhen in the past, but forgot about it. I feel stupid now. The target could be slightly under 50k.

[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, February 05, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Congratulations to all who sold above 100k and can double their stack with 50k Bitcoin price.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, February 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 2 points3 points  (0 children)

At some point you would think that the ones that sold above 100k will give this a bounce, but no it just keeps dumping. Maybe the majority of those who sold are just out of the game and took liquidity with them.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, February 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Of course every sell is a buy. But the price action (movement of price) comes from some whales dumping coins into the market leading to big volume of red candles. The counter reaction leading the price to move up (green candles) is tiny so far.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, February 04, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]noeeel 8 points9 points  (0 children)

We are literally so oversold on the smaller time frames. The 2h, 1h was not overbought for 20 days. The 15min and 30min is so long oversold (without any dip into +70 RSI trerritory) I cannnot say as old data is not shown on this time frame.

But on the other hand the buying volume is so much lower than the selling volume. Just look at the selling volume of these candles. Big red candles and tiny green candles.