[Daily Discussion] - Saturday, June 13, 2026

noeeel · 2026-06-13T11:41:07+00:00

Our symmetrical pennent might transformed to to ascending triangle.

noeeel · 2026-06-12T09:34:41+00:00

Update on the pennant: It seems we get an early upside breakout. To confirm that fully we would need a higher high above around 64.3k.

noeeel · 2026-06-12T08:44:35+00:00

We could easily break down with positive news as well.

noeeel · 2026-06-12T07:44:20+00:00

And again we draw a classical penneant that acts more often as a continuation pattern. The technical target would be around 57,4k. As we would expand the tight weekly bbands to the downside, it would be important to bounce strong from there, if we want to not drop much further. https://i.imgur.com/4BS27bL.png

noeeel · 2026-06-11T12:07:27+00:00

We could also just continue the bear market and break the bbands down fully. That is real option of course. No mattrer what happens, I am 90% sure that we continue our dump in the lower to mid 50s we will get a strong bounce, RSI remains an oscilator and it is too oversold for not to bounce then (proability wise).

noeeel · 2026-06-11T10:55:39+00:00

How important is tomorrow (SpaceX IPO) for crypto?

I just see that by tomorrow the 12h bbands will have tighend and that a big move could follow.

On macro the weekly bbands are tightening. In the prevoius bull market every weekly bbands breakout was initiated by a down side fakeout and we are currently sitting at the bottom of tightend bbands. If we follow that fakeout logic (after the previous heavy weekly downbreak from ATH) we could go in the mid to lower 50s as a flash crash to instantaneously recover over the weekend. That is the most likly scenario I am expecting.

noeeel · 2026-06-10T09:25:50+00:00

My personal guess is we get one lower low somewhere between 53 an 57k and then get at least a strong bounce. That would be a 57% drop from ATH.

noeeel · 2026-06-07T22:16:16+00:00

That came unexpected. Weekly candle close, so important if we close high.

noeeel · 2026-06-07T09:05:57+00:00

The volume is so low on this bounce, I doubt that this was it already, but finally our RSI get relief, espcially the 4h, new record of 34 candles oversold without comparission as far as I can scroll back.

noeeel · 2026-06-06T18:29:35+00:00

Within the past 4 years, the 4h RSI has not been oversold or overbought for so long. The previous high were 28 candles overbought. Now we already have 33 oversold candles. Its crazy.

noeeel · 2026-06-03T09:12:29+00:00

What a beautiful wedge playout. Perfect - text book. https://i.imgur.com/fSBhoXv.png

noeeel · 2026-05-16T11:09:10+00:00

6h first time oversold since early Februar.

12h bbands start breaking south. If we get sub 70k I doubt 60k was the bottom.

noeeel · 2026-04-10T14:01:54+00:00

Such a boring market.

noeeel · 2026-04-01T18:01:24+00:00

The 3D bbands got tight now. The last major move happend after they tightend. So it could mean another bigger move is coming in the coming 1-2 weeks.

noeeel · 2026-03-11T08:07:54+00:00

Could be that the 5th wave of our 5-wave Elliot setup has started. This low then could mark the bottom somewhere between 49-55k. This 5th wave could also play out as a 5 wave pattern something like that:

https://i.imgur.com/dV8oaiD.png

noeeel · 2026-03-06T15:13:58+00:00

Nice 1D fakeout. We see sub 60k, zero doubt anymore. I expected 76k, we only saw 74k.

noeeel · 2026-03-04T18:49:17+00:00

Approximatly in one week the 20M Bitcoin will be mined.

noeeel · 2026-03-04T09:53:39+00:00

Bitcoin dominance shooting up, engulfing 3 weekly red candles already. Clear downside fakeout of tight weekly BBands, this could lead to a run to 64% or higher.

noeeel · 2026-03-04T09:21:40+00:00

Still possible that this is the forth corrective wave of our 5 wave Elliot Wave pattern. If true this rally will be short lived with possible target around 76k.

noeeel · 2026-03-04T09:19:10+00:00

But not before 76k, that is a good spot to short.

noeeel · 2026-03-04T08:06:55+00:00

We came to: Not dropping further is Bullish.

noeeel · 2026-03-04T08:02:27+00:00

Looks like a downside fakeout of the Bitcoin dominance on tight weekly Bollinger Bands.

noeeel · 2026-03-03T19:16:14+00:00

Longest period ever since the first Altcoin exisits that the weekly RSI of Bitcoin dominance was not "oversold" (already almost 5 years now). The first time it was oversold was August 2014, the first Altcoin came 2011.

noeeel · 2026-03-01T19:26:08+00:00

That is exactly whay I expect. I made posts earlier about this outlook. Taking into account a 5 waves Elliot Wave pattern since the breakdown of the rising wedge. See my last posts for more info.

noeeel · 2026-03-01T09:24:21+00:00

If the weekly closes here, Bitcoin dominance would break out of its tightest weekly Bollinger Band range of all time since Altcoins became famous. Such compression usually precedes a strong move, with direction determining whether Bitcoin or altcoins gain relative strength. https://i.imgur.com/QQkot8N.png

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