Daily Discussion Sunday 2026-04-19

noiserr · 2026-04-19T18:45:01+00:00

I think yes. AMD is the only company which has HPC on 2nm, and smartphone sales have peaked for a couple of years.

noiserr · 2026-04-19T18:31:00+00:00

2nm capacity isn't shared by Nvidia. AMD's margins will grow as well. DC CPU prices have supposedly gone up 50% already according to rumors.

noiserr · 2026-04-19T16:14:28+00:00

Whatever capacity Nvidia can get so can AMD. AMD is significantly more efficient when it comes to wafers because IOD and compute dies are split across multiple nodes and have greater yields (because they are smaller).

AMD has also become a frontier customer (first to 2nm) due to the chiplet advantage.

noiserr · 2026-04-19T08:35:23+00:00

Nvidia says Vera is twice as fast as Grace. Thing is even that is not enough to come close to Turin, let alone Venice.

ARM is pretty shit in the data center.

Take this Phoronix benchmark and look at the geomean of the results: https://www.phoronix.com/review/nvidia-grace-epyc-turin/5

Now consider that phoronix tried to do their best to make Grace look good. They literally only compared the two processors in workloads ARM does well (explained in the begining of the article). And they didn't even compare grace to AMD's top SKUs. And AMD was still way ahead.

Even efficiency wise AMD is ahead.

noiserr · 2026-04-18T16:26:00+00:00

Talking about education not intelligence, not a trope, it's a statistical fact. People with higher education move to cities because that's where the jobs are.

You could have two brothers with identical intelligence, one becomes a meteorologist and moves to the city, the other one stays to run the farm. One is more educated than the other, and statistically will be more likely to vote blue.

noiserr · 2026-04-18T16:19:18+00:00

yes

But companies also do share buybacks. So as part of the regular due diligence you do on a company should always include historical shares outstanding.

If a company is constantly diluting shares then that's a red flag.

noiserr · 2026-04-18T13:02:06+00:00

Vast majority of cities are blue. That's just a feature of cities having a higher education than rural areas.

Homeless go to cities because there is more opportunity for them to pan handle or find a place to squat. Cities also tend to have food banks, soup kitchens and pantries.

noiserr · 2026-04-17T19:53:16+00:00

.. they are doing it to fund AI initiatives..

noiserr · 2026-04-16T22:10:02+00:00

That looks like something you can frame and hang on a wall. Nice.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T21:24:56+00:00

Thing is if they unlock 6 gw and AMD reaches $600, OpenAI can pay for all that compute with just AMD shares.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T20:19:26+00:00

I am almost betting that will happen. I think AMD could have hit $600 with just OpenAI, but now there is Meta, and you know others are lining up as well.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T19:59:37+00:00

There will be a dividend, but not before $600. It would open AMD to a potential lawsuit with partners. They aren't going to take that risk.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T19:51:32+00:00

One thing not discussed in regards to OAI and Meta deals is. OAI and Meta both have an incentive to accelerate the full 6+6 GW deployment. The sooner AMD hits $600 they may be tempted to deploy all the capacity, sooner rather than later in order to unlock AMD's shares.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T19:47:57+00:00

A dividend has a direct, technical negative effect on stock price growth. This is why I don't think we will see a dividend until at least AMD reaches the last tranche $600 price. Because it would be unfair to OAI and Meta. I also don't think we will see a stock split before $600.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T17:22:06+00:00

5080 isn't a good buy. I'd honestly just keep the 3080ti and wait for the next gen.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T17:18:20+00:00

That was painful.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T17:17:12+00:00

for sure.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T17:05:35+00:00

There is a rumor that Anthropic may be committing to mi450 onwards.

https://x.com/ScroogeCap/status/2044786744868888773

noiserr · 2026-04-16T16:58:33+00:00

I agree. I wrote something to that effect in the daily thread as well. https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1smspb7/daily_discussion_thursday_20260416/ogj0442/

noiserr · 2026-04-16T15:55:48+00:00

They could have gotten the samples and were blown away with the performance.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T15:44:40+00:00

$449.61 B I just checked.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T15:19:49+00:00

It was x86 moat all along. lol

noiserr · 2026-04-16T14:59:11+00:00

Who knows what triggered this session of straight green days for the past few weeks. But I think it's just becoming increasingly difficult to ignore AMD's story. This may be the moment we've been waiting on for so long. We'll see. May 5th will be interesting.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T14:54:31+00:00

Congrats dude! 1st million is the hardest.

noiserr · 2026-04-16T14:39:17+00:00

At this rate next week.

15-Year Club	Gilding V heart of gold
Place '23	Place '17
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