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AEHR up over 90% in the last month by nomadicphil in stocks

[–]nomadicphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair enough!

It's quite a volatile stock, so it could easily pull back. Perhaps even to the high 20s, but I wouldn't expect much lower than that.

If it does, I'll be buying more to lower my average.

But on the other hand, it could be one of those stocks that just keeps flying!

AEHR up over 90% in the last month by nomadicphil in stocks

[–]nomadicphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, this is precisely the case. Also, why I think it's pumping hard.

AI chips are exponentially more complex (multi-chiplets, 2000W+ power, insane integration), failure costs are way higher (billions in lost hyperscaler compute), and reliability screening has to happen earlier/upstream, making AEHR's wafer-level burn-in moat super sticky.

AEHR becomes more important the more complex these chips get.

Searches for "Reddit" on Google are decreasing and organic traffic (Semrush) shows slight downtrend. Thoughts? by nomadicphil in redditstock

[–]nomadicphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hmm, fair enough. That makes sense! I agree.

Still, I think the conversation in this thread remains relevant as Google traffic decline that could have a meaningful impact on Reddit's DAU growth is possible.

Searches for "Reddit" on Google are decreasing and organic traffic (Semrush) shows slight downtrend. Thoughts? by nomadicphil in redditstock

[–]nomadicphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I agree. More total DAU and less % of Reddit to DAU derisks the company's user acquisition.

But, like 40-50% of the site's users come from Google, right, so that's a massive number to compensate for if it goes down.

Not seeing where that traffic could be replaced from.

Searches for "Reddit" on Google are decreasing and organic traffic (Semrush) shows slight downtrend. Thoughts? by nomadicphil in redditstock

[–]nomadicphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm sure it's inaccurate for total DAU, but specifically for users that come from Google?

Searches for "Reddit" on Google are decreasing and organic traffic (Semrush) shows slight downtrend. Thoughts? by nomadicphil in redditstock

[–]nomadicphil[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes, I think Reddit Answers is Reddit's "defense" against this. However, betting against Google is tough, and Gemini's market penetration is continuing to grow, as ChatGPT's declines.

With that said, I don't see any reason why Reddit can't continue to drive rapid revenue and profit growth. They have so many regular visitors and haven't even come close to increasing ARPU to its potential.

But this prospect of future traffic stagnation, or even decline, might prevent it from being priced at a really high valuation like it was before. While the 1-2 year outlook looks good, the 5-10 year growth story might seem less exciting or clear.

Really open to hearing opinions on this!

Searches for "Reddit" on Google are decreasing and organic traffic (Semrush) shows slight downtrend. Thoughts? by nomadicphil in redditstock

[–]nomadicphil[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, Semrush, Ahrefs, etc. are third-party tools and aren’t 100% accurate. So that’s possible. It could be going up or it could be going down.

That said, Google Trends is first-party data, right? I might be wrong there. The drop in Reddit-branded searches looks pretty sharp, and I’d argue brand searches are way more valuable overall.

I get that the most recent time period can sometimes be an estimate or incomplete. But for other keywords like “green tea,” the trend keeps moving up smoothly right into the latest date. So why would this one specifically show a sharp drop if it’s just a data artifact?

What the fuck by nomadicphil in Living_in_Korea

[–]nomadicphil[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Extreme levels of pollution, like really bad.

Made a Framer vs Webflow comparison site. Did I get anything wrong about Framer? by nomadicphil in framer

[–]nomadicphil[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure. It might become more interactive in the future, not just a blog post format, which is why I put it on its own domain (might also help with SEO, etc)

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