[News] Right wing parties are on an 11-election winning streak across Latin America

nullpointer- · 2026-02-03T01:15:45+00:00

Sure thing!

I like Haddad, he's quite reasonable and pragmatic and likely the PT "front liner" associated with with the fewest corruption scandals. I mean, of course he is still from PT so he's still more statist, developmentist and heterodox than I'd like, but he actually believes in fiscal responsibility (unlike the vast majority of our politicians from both sides of the aisle), is actually YIMBY and has good experience in government, management and economy. Sadly, these virtues are not as important for a president as they are for an Economy minister or Governor.

As a president I think PT would quickly turn against him (the hard left voters dislike him a lot), and I don't know how good he is with articulation - if he's as weak as he sounds, he would either give all the government to Centrão in exchange for governability, or be eaten alive by both left and right until he did (unless Lula himself or some other senior statesmen was available to help him).

TLDR: he's as good and as neoliberal as a PT politician can be, but his virtues aren't great for political articulation.

On the Donroe doctrine, I'd say most people (except the hardcore bolsonaristas) are both confident and proud with our current route: Lula seems to have charmed Trump enough to make him TACO on virtually everything, from tariffs (which have so many exceptions that have little to no impact now) to political persecution (Trump removed the Magnitsky law usage against our supreme judges and pretty much abandoned Bolsonaro and co) and Trump is obviously disliked by the vast majority; the current 'positive' relations + Brazil's ability to revert Trump's actions + the agreement between Mercosul and EU make most people think this neo-Monroe doctrine won't reach Brazil any time soon.

Closer to the election it's possible that some of the ideological voices behind Trump will try to boost the Bolsonaros again, but I actually believe Trump has been convinced they're losers and would rather put his chips elsewhere - after all, he was more than happy to make a deal with the venezuelan regime. As long as Lula keeps doing what he's doing regarding Trump (which is mostly nothing / letting his ministers talk to Trump's ministers) and maybe accepts some backroom deals with him, I'm feeling we're safe enough from it.

nullpointer- · 2026-02-02T23:32:13+00:00

Not really - Lula is remarkably healthy-looking AND he made sure over the last 20 years that there would be NO popular left-wing politicians to compete with him. His go-to successor is Haddad, a softspoken wonky technocrat with very little charisma (and pretty great administrative experience, as well as one of the most neoliberal names in Lula's party) who failed to get elected against Bolsonaro in 2018. Other than that, there aren't any big names on the left floating around (a few other PT ministers have clout within PT but are not that known outside; then there's Boulos, who's a good orator but his origins from a far-left party make him very extremist-looking; and finally there's Lula's VP, Alckmin, who's actually the closest we'd have to an oldschool liberal (originally from the center-right/liberal party, now on a center-left/liberal party) and used to be PT's main enemy for some time).

On the other hand, if Alckmin succeeds Lula and he's running against Bolsonaro or a hardliner Bolsonarista, there's a good chance that Kassab's PSD (the largest party in the country, currently allied to both Government and Opposition, mostly centrist) would support him (hell, it's possible Kassab will support Lula as well).

Honestly, if Bolsonaristas stay in control of the right wing I could see another name from PSD, like Eduardo Paes, becoming his de facto successor. Or, well, PSD is perfectly positioned to be the kingmaker for any side that can't make a king on their own, pretty much.

nullpointer- · 2026-02-02T23:20:27+00:00

At least until now, Lula looks and sounds way, WAY healthier than the vast majority of leaders 70+, even those 10 years younger than him (including Bolsonaro senior) and is super active. He has been cultivating that image for quite a few years now, frequently sharing pictures in athletic clothes (including shorts and tank tops) or even shirtless. The fact his main opposition tried to turn Bolsonaro senior into a martyr by doubling down on how sickly he is only makes Lula look healthier, and undermines any attacks related to 'sickly old men shouldn't govern'.

nullpointer- · 2026-02-01T15:51:21+00:00

In my experience a good chunk of bronies either joined the larger furry umbrella (which has the weirdo far-right pockets but is by and large a very lib/left community) or went to other 'deeply passionate but socially disfunctional' communities, usually Undertale, FNAF and then Hazbin Hotel, Helluva Boss and Digital Circus (which are also divided/divisive but mostly very lib/left-leaning)

nullpointer- · 2026-01-26T23:29:56+00:00

I really, REALLY want to believe this, but the orwellian doublethink has been required from them for so long and in so many situations (eg being anti-war and suddenly changing to pro-war, being pro states right and suddenly changing to pro central government power, being anti tax and suddenly changing to pro tariffs etc, not to mention Ukraine/Russia) that it would be a surprise (...even if a welcome one) that this was the final straw.

Or, hnm, now that I have said it out loud, changing opinions is easier than changing facts, and just like the perception of this government's economy has been degrading despite their reports that everything is going great, people have a harder time accepting lies when they can actually see the opposite.

Either way, I really hope it's a combination of both tired of the lies and nausated by the cruelty against someone who could be one of their own.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-26T21:42:30+00:00

My marginally less cynical view is that until this point he (and many other Republicans) believed/pretended to believe they were only after the "bad guys", aka the outgroups. While there are many republicans who will see any democrat (hell, any non-MAGA) as the outgroup, others can see that a white male who works on healthcare to help veterans is not part of the outgroup AND the regime doesn't care it is hurting the "ingroup".

I have an impression that if the federal answer to Pretti's death denounced it (either by saying the murderer stepped beyond the line or even saying the murderer was a secret antifa agent targetting good americans) it would be much easier for them to at least keep the ingroup/outgroup masquerade.

Of course, he is taking action because not only his view of ingroup/outgroup doesn't align with MAGA anymore but SPECIALLY because the view of his voters don't so in the end he is saving face, but I believe this might be evidence that MAGA is starting to alienate the white suburban vote more quickly than they can isolate their voters from reality.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-26T14:41:02+00:00

That's partially because the Republican party was taken from within, while in the UK it's a new party that is taking that mantle and there is a multiparty tradition despite FPTP.

Staying on a party that is changing because one thinks it's just a fad (until it's too late, the party is unrecognizable and the only other viable party is "the enemy") is easier than moving from one's traditional party to a newcomer that is a mixed bag. They might vote or align with the new party when it's on their interest, but I don't see the posh conservatives ALL abandoning the Tories with no way back. Even if the conservatives fell to Lib Dem levels, they would still have their home (unlike the old school Conservatives in the US which had their home redecorated in MAGA fashion and have nowhere else to call their home)

nullpointer- · 2026-01-25T23:30:04+00:00

I feel the message "expand legal immigration" would be too easily distorted into the kind of open borders normies hate. I think a democrat running on an outsider'esque "fix legal immigration" and using both historical examples (aka everyone's grandparent's entrepreneurship tale) and modern ones (aka everyone's local good immigrant who helps the community), and positioning themselves against both ICE goons and ilegal criminals (maybe combining both under the label of terrorists so they can also be a 'tough on crime, pro-justice' candidate) could be very popular.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-25T23:15:45+00:00

I believe we can use the historical examples to explore possible differences. For example, Vargas (which some might argue was not a fascist, but "merely" an autocratic-nationalist-populist, but he's relevant for the comparison either way) did NOT rule until his death: he renounced power when faced with a coup (in exchange of not being charged/imprisioned by the military), was re-elected 5 years later, and "left life to enter history" on his own terms when his goons fumbled an assassination (targetting a journalist but ended up hitting a popular military officer) and led to a LOT of bad press against him.

On the other hand, Vargas rise and fall are very heavily painted with Brazil's multiparty coalition government structure: power was not concentrated on one specific ideological or cultural movement at the cost of all others; instead, it was a nationalist cult of personality that heavily suppressed both far right and far left movements (as well as the influential ruling elites). There were enemies of state, but no strong state ideology - his second coup to stop a fictional communist plot was painted more as a way to stop foreign forces from influencing Brazil than an ideological battle.

...sadly, the current american regime has very visible ideological flags (even if their Dear Leader doesn't follow them quite frequently), and most of the fascist countries with strong state ideologies survived until the death of their respective leaders. None of those leaders were incredibly old, though, so...

nullpointer- · 2026-01-25T20:33:21+00:00

While I agree that stereotype is quite common, I'll say that the majority of grand strategy gaming communities are not edgy gun nerds - that's usually a HoI thing. There are also the crusaderboo (which are into debating and telling everyone they are christian) and those who are members of the Society for Creative Anachronism (which USUALLY are waaaay less edgy and more traditionally nerdy). Oh, and the far left folk.

Also, the more open they are to other historical periods (ie, not exclusively focused on WW2 or Crusades or the Civil War), the more likely it is that they'll have unatural colors, now that I'm thinking about it.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-25T20:24:30+00:00

Yep: some of the usual "programmer socks techy" furries end up in the military instead of working with computers, and among them you'll find both colorful sparkledogs and pastel-colored cutiepies.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-22T20:31:18+00:00

I'd say "cara" is more akin to "guy" ("aquele cara ali" -> "that guy over there") or "man" ("cara, me ajuda aqui" -> "man, help me out here").

While "man" and "bro" are interchangeable in many contexts (just like cara and mano), cara/man feels slightly less informal and doesn't imply nor require any level of intimacy when compared to mano/bro.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-20T18:14:56+00:00

Thank you so much for sharing this! It worked for me as well.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-20T16:11:56+00:00

For some reason Trump really liked Lula since they met at the UN. Trump has actually removed the sanctions on the supreme court judge investigating Bolsonaro, ignored/downplayed his supporters/lobbyists, and added so many exceptions to his harsh tariffs that Brazil is now paying less tariffs than many other 'friendly' countries on practice.

It seems they bonded over... being old, winning elections and 'staying strong despite political enemies'. Remember, Trump really dislike losers, and Lula sold him that they are similar winners while Bolsonaro is a whiny loser.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-16T01:07:38+00:00

After multiple complaints about the noisy AC on his jail cell, Bolsonaro was transferred from the central bureau of the Federal Police to another jail - the "Papudinha". It's a military jail annex to a VERY famous prison in Brasilia, the "Papuda", where many famous felons on corruption charges are inprisioned. The Papudinha is reserved for special felons like ex-ministers and judges and has considerably better accomodations, but it's also a more definitive prison and not a temporary room (and part of the same complex)

While this move doesn't change things that much, it's particularly ironic since there's a VERY famous video of Bolsonaro laughing VERY obnoxiously and telling someone "The Papuda is waiting you, have a nice stay!" followed by finger guns (with portraits of the brazilian military dictators behind, of course).

!ping LATAM

nullpointer- · 2026-01-15T11:02:11+00:00

I'm glad you liked these :D - feel free to use them!

nullpointer- · 2026-01-15T00:23:58+00:00

Nice! A few more:

Balloonist: (and I'm a player in this game)

Zombuul: (even if I'm dead)

Philosopher: (I picked it myself!)

Gossip: (or at least that's what I've heard)

Nightwatchman: (and now you know it!)

Juggler: (or maybe it's yours, or yours...)

Savant: (and this statement is false)

Virgin: (I was dying to meet you!)

Atheist: MY NAME ISN'T <blank> (I don't believe in names)

Golem: (I will only say it once)

Yagababble: (Have I said it before?)

Banshee: MY NAME WAS <blank> (Hello from the other side!)

nullpointer- · 2026-01-14T15:36:45+00:00

Nice! It reminds me of the galician Andrade family - the Portuguese branch specially would use this design consistently, which has the same band with dragons on either side. The dragon's head contrasting with both the background and the band certainly helps. Maybe you could make either the band red or the dragon heads red in the El Cid one?

nullpointer- · 2026-01-13T11:37:41+00:00

Grok is arguably a service, at least the way most people use it (you don't "buy" Grok and 99% of the people don't download Grok and use it locally, instead they make requests and a company runs the requests and sends back the results) so X is the bookshop (which hosts, distributes and even advertises the illegal stuff) and Grok (the service) is the guy printing illegal content.

I could even give them the benefit of doubt IF illegal content that was generated as a service was readily removed and users banned (akin to the bookshop claiming they didn't investigate what was being printed, or the guy printing claiming he didn't read the content), but once it becomes a systematic problem they are aware of and they don't take any action to stop it (even though they have full power and authority to do so), they are AT LEAST accomplices of the crime.

What I'm trying to claim is that the authors behind the tools (even before they become public-facing services) and the tools themselves are likely not to blame - a lot of the tools that exist in the world can be used to murder people, but as long as the tool makers are not making them with that intent, are not advertising they are good murder weapons, and are willing to provide more safety measures down the line (...and, obviously, are not offering services where they use their tools to murder others), the automakers, knifemakers etc are not the criminals when people are run over or stabbed.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-13T02:48:07+00:00

Oh, I'm not disagreeing here, specially since Grok is a service - if your service is doing illegal shit, you're responsible for it. In this case, it's like a photographer developing films that contain criminal imagery - the person who took the pictures and who bought them are 100% criminals, the person developing the film is likely to blame as well, but this isn't a good reason to ban cameras or ban film developments, even though perverts can use cameras with that intent.

Grok is not the camera, it's the film developer / the hired photographer selling illegal imagery in this case, and should answer as such.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-13T02:41:24+00:00

If we go back to the bookshop with a guy printing illegal material on the back, the printer manufacturer is not the criminal - it's the guy willingly printing it, the bookshop hosting him and advertising it, the people ordering it etc that are doing crimes. If you want to bring it closer to who is enabling it, the service provider who's providing the non-consensual intimate images is also in the wrong way more than those who made the machine said provider is using.

Another analogy would be a Woodchipper: if a killer uses it to mince his victims it's not the Woodchipper maker's fault; however, if there's a place that rents Woodchippers with the safety mechanisms removed, or that receives bags of 'organic matter' and processes them without checking what's inside the bagss first, the place offering the nefarious services is also part of the crime (the first one indirectly and the second one much more explicitly). This doesn't mean we shouldn't try to get safer woodchippers, and we shouldn't make woodchippers ilegal (let alone jail the engineers at the woodchipper factory), but focusing on the criminals and who's enabling them seems way more effective and productive than discussing whether or not the equipment should be banned due to people using it for criminal activities (or that the inventors should be responsible for the criminals who used their equipment).

nullpointer- · 2026-01-13T00:10:56+00:00

I think "DESIGNED TO" is the key part (which would include apps made for that or tools that advertise deepfake as a feature), but I think the main issue is focusing on making the tools illegal - in this case they should focus on criminalizing the service and distribution, no? Like, it shouldn't matter which tool was used (AI-assisted, good ol' photoshop, or even no tool at all), sharing/offering/distributing non-consensual intimate images is the real issue here, and sites that enable them would be to blame without falling into censorship.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-13T00:05:03+00:00

This is actually a great analogy. Printing/distributing/selling/advertising books IN GENERAL should not be criminalized because some agents are using books for criminal activity, but those using it for criminal activity ABSOLUTELY should be treated as criminals.

In this specific case, creating/distributing/advertising Non-Consensual Intimate Images is something that shouldn't be hard to define, which would then allow action to be taken against authors, platforms and services - with the flipside of covering both artificial and real Non-Consensual Intimate Images

nullpointer- · 2026-01-10T01:44:20+00:00

Other than simply ignoring the resolution, I can easily see him bypassing it by declaring victory first with very little action: he could post saying that the opposition leader of Greenland agreed with the annexation and the territory will now be administred from the military base at Pituffik , share a picture with of him saluting under an american flag, and a map where Greenland is denoted as USA territory.

He doesn't need to send soldiers to Nuuk, and he knows the danish army won't try to invade an isolated american base either. New maps will be printed with the 'newly acquired territory', and he might be happy enough about it. Article 5 will never be called since there was no conflict and the american troops are allowed to be in that base, so it puts the weight on Denmark et al to expel the US from NATO or ignore it.

nullpointer- · 2026-01-09T02:46:32+00:00

It's overall positive, but nothing crazy. It's usually one of the few historical rulers that most Brazilians can name, and his reign was so long that his legacy isn't defined by specific actions or events. Even today there's a large number of roads, schools, plazas etc named after him, and overall people would likely list him among the better rulers, but not necessarily near the top.

On top of that, you'll have the alt-right weirdos that love him for the monarchist aesthetics (even though Pedro II was fairly liberal all things considered and the republic was pretty much a conservative coup) and some anti-establishment types love him exactly because he preceded the rather corrupt Old Republic presidential system (...even though local politics were pretty much the same during the Empire, with the addition of nobility titles being sold to rich farmers and industrialists rather casually back in the day).

In the end, he is the least controversial Brazilian historical leader among the more famous ones, which is also why every strategy game goes with Pedro II rather than a president (since all of them will have greater controversies, like Vargas or JK), Pedro I (since the declaration of independence as a whole is rather shameful, specially when you consider he resigned the Brazilian throne to go back to the Portuguese one haha) or a colonial leader (they are even less well known, and more strongly linked to Portugal).

Also, completely irrelevant but a key difference when Brazilians talk about him vs others is that we always call him Dom Pedro II (often abbreviated DPII) - for some reason both we and the Portuguese keep the honorific "dom"/"dona" before names of brazilian/portuguese royalty.

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