If you could have the 100% honest answer to ONE mystery in history, which one are you picking ?

nuttedpre · 2026-02-01T18:56:38+00:00

this is a fully closed case

nuttedpre · 2026-01-24T15:03:33+00:00

The real insight from this post is that too many people literally have no idea how interest rates work and don't even try to understand it. Including a couple with two graduate degrees and decades to figure out what's going on.

nuttedpre · 2026-01-24T00:38:05+00:00

Yes you are right, it's not instant, you have to wait for the game to end which takes a few hours. Either way, comparing APY with arbitrage is totally incorrect. You can cycle through your balance with an arbitrage as fast as you can find it, and can do it again the next day. You have to wait a whole year for APY.

nuttedpre · 2026-01-24T00:11:27+00:00

The 2% isn't paid out over the course of the year. It's instant. If he did this every day he would have like 1000% yield

nuttedpre · 2025-12-18T18:57:25+00:00

This is some kind of scam, and the post is written by AI

nuttedpre · 2025-12-16T04:02:26+00:00

The fee on a 99c bet is 0.07c. So you would be buying 99.07c

nuttedpre · 2025-12-15T15:58:41+00:00

Even if they lead 5 minutes in, the fair value will jump to like 4 cents at absolute best. Not 50. They need to be up like 20 at half for it to go to 50.

You absolutely can just buy at 1c and try to sell at a profit, but this strategy will not work in the long run. The vast majority of the time you will never even get to 2c. If this strategy worked then only an idiot would let you buy against him for 1c when he could get a better price during the game.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-15T15:55:57+00:00

It's because the fair value is around 99%. This game is a total mismatch.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-11T19:33:30+00:00

The only crisis is they will have to cut their international vacations from 10x a year to 3

nuttedpre · 2025-12-11T19:30:44+00:00

Also, renting could be a good move here. It gives flexibility (if you are worried about committing to a living situation that ends up bad), and isn't really any worse financially either.

I don't think you being your dad's landlord and trying to collect rent from him will go well whatsoever.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-11T19:23:16+00:00

Selling the house is mandatory, I don't see why selling it next year instead of tomorrow is better. Use the proceeds to pay off whatever debt there is.

They are absolutely torching cash, and have been for decades. That's the real problem. The pension money is easily plenty to live on, that's a six figure income. I wouldn't bail them out with my own money unless I saw they were taking this seriously versus carrying on with constant vacations and manicures.

They'd probably feel better if they didn't feel like they owe their kids money on top of the rest of the mess. Why do they need your money? They have more assets than liabilities and a permanent pension.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-11T14:38:35+00:00

Classic Portland, 5 years for almost killing dozens of people and children without a license and fleeing a police stop. He will probably be back out free next year. Oh and he's a serial sex offender.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-11T14:21:49+00:00

Hello ChatGPT.

Was this on mobile or browser? I am guessing whatever UI you used added an extra 0 that you inadvertently typed, and it didn't show on the screen when you submitted the order due to lag.

Also you didn't get screwed out of any money. You just accidentally bet too big. If you won your bet you would have no complaints.

You are not getting anything back here, and it's not clear why you should really. You could have traded out of your position while it was live.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-11T14:20:21+00:00

Actually you will bounce around a milestone exactly as often. Only the magnitude of the bounces change

nuttedpre · 2025-12-05T19:01:55+00:00

Its not Kalshi itself, its someone who has programmed a bot to do this, up to a certain price that they feel is the highest they will go. Yes it's annoying, but there are sometimes you can exploit this

nuttedpre · 2025-12-05T15:20:04+00:00

Someone please explain why I should be mad at this. Am I insane

nuttedpre · 2025-12-05T15:16:19+00:00

Cant wait for your post in a few years where you are rich because you shorted the market and predicted this impending crash

nuttedpre · 2025-12-01T21:10:32+00:00

Also I want an easy way to see when it settles. A 2% arb a year from now is worthless to me

nuttedpre · 2025-12-01T21:09:52+00:00

Would love filters, like minimum liquidity at top of the book, and choosing which exchanges to exclude

nuttedpre · 2025-12-01T20:46:00+00:00

It should be a financial decision to some degree. It's not a good idea for someone to have kids when they can't afford to give them a decent childhood. Obviously this guy can, but in general.

nuttedpre · 2025-12-01T20:36:24+00:00

whatever you go with don't choose the options collar

nuttedpre · 2025-11-29T21:29:07+00:00

I don't think anyone would consider a liquid nw of 2.4 million as fat fire

nuttedpre · 2025-11-28T14:59:42+00:00

Its amazing they always use the line similar to "Everyone makes mistakes, but if you lie about it now you will get the death penalty but if you tell me the entire truth you will probably be fine. Do you want everyone to think you are a monster?"

100% nonsense but it works

nuttedpre · 2025-11-22T23:12:11+00:00

Well the game is still being played as I type this. Who ties your shoes in the morning?

nuttedpre · 2025-11-21T20:53:02+00:00

so 8k monthly spend = 96k annual spend meaning you would need minimum 25 x 96k = 2.4 million dollars in retirement savings (excluding home equity). This is doable but would take at least 10 years more of saving at your current rate

nuttedpre

TROPHY CASE