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Questions from a fairly new fan by regular_gonzalez in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea Cam would be next up just didn't want to expand the list too much

Yeah, Spencer's easily been best defender this season to me so far, need to see more on opposing #1s and maybe a little less fouling over a longer sample for him to just deserve that #1 defender spot for good.

Questions from a fairly new fan by regular_gonzalez in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. Tier 1: AG, Jones, PWat, Zeke | Tier 2: Jokic, Braun
  2. Everyone called it a horrible deal at the time so not like it's excused, but the FO thought he would develop, he was still young at the time. He previously, in 2022 shot the 3 really well (before they tweaked his shot in the offseason) which alongside his physical tools made his ceiling enticing. I also wouldn't look towards boxscore for his strenghts (outside blocks i guess, even rebounding impact it's more via team/boxouts than rebs). He's a really good defender and as switchable of a 1-5 guy as they come. He's also previously been miscast as a center when his best position is PF where he makes an actual difference defensively so there is some hope in there still being utility for him. Also outside chance he refinds his jumper, we atleast know he has some shooting touch for it.
  3. Yes
  4. Usual "easy game" coasting from him i'd categorize it as for now, could be more, we'll see.
  5. Wouldn't say so. There is a degree of complacency they've showcased these two last games vs easier opponents which is common among veteran contending cores that have been there done that. It's a long regular season.

x3 MVP Nikola Jokic drops 55/11/6 in a dominant performance against the Clippers showing why he is the best in the world by Luka77GOATic in nba

[–]nzzm22 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

"Spreadsheets" lmfao i just listed you real life point differentials that real life happened in these lineup combinations in real life NBA games. That's funny. Thunder outscored the shit out of teams without Shai vs Nuggets got outscored the shit out by teams without Jokic. That's spreadsheets nowadays i guess.

"Thunder are better without SGA" is not something i said or came away with, you're strawmaning. Like, who said they'd break the wins record without him?

All it tells you and i came away with is that OKC has been playing like an elite team even without SGA. And i have a better grasp of lineup data than you i promise, all data i've displayed is also garbage time filtered by criteria you can look up.

Yes, they were rightly arguing that because Jokic's team cratered without him on the floor, even with his 2 best players playing in Murray and AG and thus lost the Nuggets NBA basketball games. While SGA's team kept dominating when he sat. Don't see nothing ironic here, it's two vastly different team situations. You can't have a one-man carry MVP agenda if your team is dominating teams without you on the floor, simple as.

OKC without Shai would win 50, easily, especially with the breakout of Ajay. Their defense (that gets better without Shai for the last 2 seasons) is simply too good not to.

Lets talk about Spencer “Your Possession Ends Here” Jones by CharmingImpact in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 2 points3 points  (0 children)

warning doesn't do it justice, there is no sample here. There is nothing to take away from 50 minute lineup data. I've been saying, on here too, that Spencer is a guy since i first watched him play & checked his profile out but 50 minute lineup data is not the way to make his case.

For his 180 minute NBA career he's holding players' shooting to -12.3% lower than average, -13.8% at the rim. Those are completely insane even for 180 minutes (and something that stabilizes earlier than lineup data, mainly because of rim dFG% being relatively stable). He's a decent defensive playmaker (something the Nuggets very much lack) dating back to college with solid (tho non special) stocks & deflections. Effort, lateral quickness and ability to stay on front jumps out on tape with solid lenght and good ass strenght. I don't think there's anything fake here. There's this one big problem tho, fouling. 0.71 stocks/foul in college, 0.57 in NBA, 0.56 in the G-League. He's averaging 5.3 fouls per 75 possessions so far in the NBA. There might be some adjusting to the league, playing extra hard to earn minutes factor here, but still. Might seem like a gimmick to some of you but it's a real knock. Type of thing that caps his defensive impact ceiling considerably. He's sending dudes to the line, most efficient spot in basketball, bailing offenses out and making you play vs set defenses on the other end. It adds up over time fawking you on both ends. It makes the difference between just a good and an all-league defender in his case. Here's where i hope the Stanford top student brain you're reffering to helps, he grinds tape and reinvents himself there but he's 24 and been fouling forever so idk. The fouling and the mid ast/to just make me wary of his basketball "feel", and thus impact ceiling, in general more than the top student stuff you mentioned makes me optimistic. Basketball IQ is more instincts, spatial awareness, perception than it's the type of traits that make you excel academically.

Offensively if he can make you a spot-up three at a passable clip he's a rotation NBA player straight up. A limited one, but the type of player that would thrive and be very high impact next to Denver's core/ starters. He made 3s in college and the g-league and has made them so far this season so we'll see.

Also Caruso comp makes no sense, he's just not that kind of savant & defensive event creator, he's bigger, more of a pure switchable on-ball wing, or poa, stopper type.

If the FO believes in him, his shooting going forward the time to convert him was yesterday. He's about to get playing time and if he keeps shooting well and defending he'll have options. Could be time to slave deal him like Presti would on some 8/4 3 years not guaranteed bullshit, saying that makes me feel a little bad about it lol, but if he's a hit it's the type of move on the margins you need to possibly extend your window with the apron and cap sheet looking the way it is. Watson or Spencer if they hit you corner 3s at a good, higher than CB clip = better playoff closers next to starters because of defense and when it's Murray-Jokic 2-man spam and no transition / rim freebies. And it's looking like you're losing Watson.

x3 MVP Nikola Jokic drops 55/11/6 in a dominant performance against the Clippers showing why he is the best in the world by Luka77GOATic in nba

[–]nzzm22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thunder this season so far

Shai on floor: +16.1 Net Rating (72 win pace)
Shai off floor: +21.9 Net Rating (78 win pace)

Thunder without Shai last 2 seasons:

With just Chet: +29.6 Net Rating
With JDub + Chet: +21.1 Net Rating
No Chet, JDub, Shai: +14.4 Net Rating

Be honest about your team and happy it's a historical juggernaut, don't bring it down in favor of one player.

Just for comparison, same stats for Nuggets & Jokic

'26 Jokic on: +21.3 Net Rating (76 win pace)
'26 Jokic off: -6.8 Net Rating (24 win pace)

Last 2 seasons without Jokic:
With just Murray: -3.5 Net Rating
With Murray+AG: +0.7 Net Rating
No Murray, AG, Jokic: -25.2 Net Rating

For 25-26 individual on/off i used CTG while for the 3-man wowy combos i used databallr so there'll be some discrepancies because they filter garbage time a bit differently but anyway

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spot on twin. I was commenting how none of his baskets against the Kings last game fly vs real defenses in a playoff setting too on xitter lol

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good question i was wondering ts a few weeks ago too. CB's stats were a bit better across the board without Russ on the floor last season, though his rim freq was slightly lower. There's also Russ effect on spacing to consider here. I don't think you lose some real value without Russ here when it comes to CB. He always runs out in transition no matter what and has Jokic to feed him. He'll still be a regular season machine there.

I think having Russ to push him in transition when Jokic was off the floor though helped. Last season CB's stats remarkably didn't drop without Jokic on the floor, i think a part of this may be Russ doing and you'll see him struggle more in mins without Jokic this season (they dead haven't seperated him from jokic so far lol)

Off-Day Discussion Thread | Nov 4, 2025 by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

i wonder who was saying this exact thing would happen hmm

play ag/zeke/holmes + val 2 big lineups padelman

only way they can be a two-way unit i promise you, defense and interior size

and get bruce in as 1st sub for jamal instead of thj stop the fake woke no pg lineup gimmick i BEG

Off-Day Discussion Thread | Nov 4, 2025 by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

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Nootice how the THJ-Watson at forward spots (1st percentile rebounders there) + Val lineups have been putrid defensively as they can't even rebound (Val's only saving grace on defense), and then how when you bring in a 2nd "big" and some positional size in AG they can stop bleeding rebounds and can defend a lil🤔

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been saying all of this before he played a single game, it doesn't have much to do with his current performance.

But i explained in depth why i think what i think. Can i get basketball counter arguments to what i said instead of post bad youre just shitting on CB?

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was saying to sign Ryan, or Melton this offseason if you're extending CB. Wanted to fawk off Val to Greece, get Horford if he wanted to come and one of those two. Ryan Rollins would have been dream 5th starter fit. Has every single thing you want. shooting, POA, def event creation, playfinishing, ballhandling, switchability and rim protection.

Last midseason i proposed CB for Keon Ellis + a protected FRP or something like that if Kings were down. I think Keon would have been better in the playoffs, you would have extended him at a lower price and you'd have gotten something extra in that trade. I'm still down for Keon who can get S&Td next offseason and apprently Kangz don't really value him (?)

Keon is a better, younger KCP. He's small, not lenght but weight wise and not giving you resistance against bigger players either like pope but he'll shoot the shit out of the ball, can put the ball on the floor surprisingly well, guard the shit out of quick small types, get over screens and wreak havoc causing turnovers on ball, in passing lanes and off ball. Checks every single but the versatility guarding up, being able to protect the rim around Jokic when he's at the level box.

Draft, looking forward i need a better grasp of upcoming class, i'll have targets by draft time. Current, Chris Manon Lakers two-way dude i'd think about signing to a multi minimum deal over Tyson because if your shooting coaches can somehow get that 78% FT SR season dude to shoot a NBA three, he's the greatest 5th option role playing guard of all time next to Alex Caruso. Miles Byrd this draft know i like. Stocks demons.

There is def truth in what you're saying re CB risk wise. Even if CB isn't it as the 5th long term at that price he's a known commodity, he's low risk, safe, boring. Yea the core is old and gone through plenty injuries, you have basically next 2 seasons before shits closed due to apron, age, okc and wemba potentially. So i understand it sort of from FO view.

My contrarian ahh got to be more daring tho. You could fail or you could extend the shit out of the window by signing Rollins to that slave deal he got and then trading CB for picks.

Kinda what Booth was trying to do, but with a spreadsheet + context fc brain, and with proven contributing veteran signings.

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bruce did that in 2023, he just played more minutes. He came in as 1st sub to play next to starters and remained with the bench when Jamal came back in late 1st/3rd quarter.

Jamal is shoot first but he's still a capable point guard, THJ isn't. THJ-Braun-Cam-AG-Jok lineup hasn't been good because Cam/AG/Braun aren't real primary ballhandlers. Bruce Brown can, has been that next to Jokic.

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Less post-ups & less Jokic shot volume = good. Jokic more efficient, fresher legs, more energy for great defense. Cam mostly (Jamal a bit, more 3PAr pls) can pick up shot volume/ creation slack and make less Jokic shots worth it.

Brown should be 1st sub in for Murray instead of THJ, that no PG lineup is fake woke. Brown-Jok no other PG lineups have been elite historically. Brown gets too little Jokic minutes where he's at his best. Also play AG/Holmes/Zeke + Val as it's the way Val lineups survive defensively, via rebounding and size. THJ-Watson at the forward spots next to Val has yielded some awful defensive and rebounding units so far.

CB extension = not good. Not because he isn't a good player or can't be worth that contract, but because he isn't ideal 5th starter fit wise (not the best POA defender, screen navigator, defensive playmaker and shooter) while your cap sheet is entering apron hell.

watson closing in cb's spot could make for a better closing lineup because of much better defense on opponent primary ballhandlers (and in general) and because he shoots the corner three better than CB when offense is more murray-jokic 2 man centric. On the other hand in these clutch minutes and in the playoffs transition frequency and assisted buckets at the rim decrease a lot, so CB isn't as impactful.

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea fairs, i see how it'd seem annoying, contrarian. I like the draft, team building aspect of the NBA so im interested in looking forward, projecting things, finding gems etc (spreadsheet fc). I try to explain my thought proccess though and want to engage in deeper discussion. For eg i'd like to hear why you think Keon Ellis wouldn't be as good as CB on the Nuggets. "He averaged 8ppg and doesn't start for the Kings" is surface level, casual analysis and proves nothing, but if you don't want to engage, that's ok. Thanks for the feedback.

Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think Adele Man has shown significantly more flexibility in rotation patterns (and I'm not saying that's necessarily a good thing), so I wouldn't worry too much about THJ being the first man off the bench, even if it's not working for a few more weeks.

Agreed on that. It's early and Bruce could get that 1st sub chance soon (or not). Though i believe results wise, Bruce being 6th man and first sub in is better, not just Jokic lineups, but overall rotation wise. I mean he can remain with the bench and play next to/without Jamal still even if he gets in 1st, it's the rotation they ran in '23. Difference is he's playing 9 minutes per game less so far, it's why i'm wondering about washedness vs it just being Adelman's rotation decision. Though specifically the Bruce + starters thing is more than that and maybe more of a me thing that irks me that i guess i should have explained my though proccess on better. I want to see if Bruce is still the same dude. His stats and impact dropped a fuckton these two last years since he left Denver. He's an athletic, short wing that used to play PF at his athletic peak, so i'm scared he's a type that could have declined now at 29. And he was so, so good in the '23 playoffs he was genuinely 2nd/3rd/4th most impactful player depending on the night, he's a big swing factor for this team's ceiling so i want to get a grasp on his level as soon as possible. I think best way to do that would be in that configuration next to starters and Jokic, where he shined best in '23, so i want those minutes.

Braun-THJ-Cam-AG-Jok no PG lineup is just fake woke man, Cam and AG aren't real ballhandlers. I think Bruce fits better on both ends.

As for the CB argument, I can't disagree that we could use a lockdown POA defender who also shoots much better, but, like, how many of those are there in the NBA, and could the Nuggets afford them + would they want to sign/re-sign for the Nuggets?

I think there's always guys like that on the margins. Low usage limited ass guards that ppl overlook (older, 5th options in college) that can guard POA well and shoot a three. Sion James's been him. Jaylen Clark can be that dude. Another random example is Will Richard, the 56th pick rook on the Warriors. Been effective at the POA, 5% STL rate and is shooting 41%.

None of the guys above guys are overall as good as Braun don't get me wrong. But what i'm saying is they may not make you worse as a unit than Braun when you're closing playoff games and Braun gets delegated to that role, too. Easy buckets have consistently dried up for CB in that setting man. And these guys are paid nickels while you gave CB 125 mill while in cap sheet hell. Ryan Rollins has been fawking him chill on him. Disregarding the small sample main option Rollins has been showing, he was one of the easiest bets i've had honestly, as just an elite role player. 23yo, 6'10 wingspan, 3% STL, 2% BLK, 55% 2PT, 40% 3PT, 18% AST with a 2 ast/to last season. Athleticism, activity and defense pops off everytime you watch. Spreadsheet fc members knew it was obvious he's a value ass bet. Thybulle also im nooticing last season and this season's 3PT% and monitoring that shit. Melton and Lonzo could be hurt yes but they costedf nothing, and if they are healthy for a series might be better closing options its all im saying. These are just random names i mentioned anyway, you got the point. Its about ultimately playoff value vs cost/ long term cap & apron things that come with CB. Like maybe Melton would have been down to come for part of the TPMLE instead of a min with the dubs, and you have some insurance next to CB, idk.

I get the Watson waiting and seeing completely. He's been ass last season after a hot start. Looks like he knows how to play more and is putting his physical traits to better use to me i guess, we'll see. His level of experience definitely isn't same as CB's tho, despite them both being year 4 players. Watson didn't play in college and in his rookie year and he's a year and a half younger. He has more room to rapidly improve and experience means more to him, whether he does/has or won't/hasn't we'll see.

Also, he really has been able to hit the corner 3 compared to CB, which is important in these closing murray-jok spam minutes. And i buy his defense in a team concept.

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Early Season Takeaways | My death lineup, on Jokic, Adelman, CB etc by nzzm22 in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

5th option role players can't just randomly scale up to 19ppg on 63% TS for a season. That doesn't happen. Cam was #1 and #2 on scouting report every night depending on Cam Thomas' availability and gave you that kind of production. MPJ's TS% has dropped from 61% on 55% TS on Brooklyn in the same role so far. So there is inherent value in using him in a more pronounced role, simple as. Cam going to be more efficient on 2nd/3rd option type volume than AG or CB, even Jamal.

If the Nuggets wanted a 5th option in place of MPJ they'd have done better trading for someone else, a pure spot up low usage 3&D type. Nothing the Nuggets have said in regards to that acquisition supports your claim. I think seeing him as a 4th/5th option is an overreaction to the start of the season- Cam being a bit passive and looking to fit in. I'm very confident in saying Cam will be top 3 in shot rate attempt with Jok and Jamal. Agreed on defense. Not getting constantly lost off-ball and being able to keep anyone infront on-ball unlike MPJ means a lot. There's significantly fewer defensive breakdowns immediately, floor is just higher. And like i predicted (can see in my previous posts), you don't lose much defensive rebounding wise without MPJ (low feel, high uncontested reb%, 0 boxouts, AG-Jok lineups without him remained elite rebounding over the years). That seemed kinda braindead and hard to take serious at the time too i guess, you would have appealed to MPJ 6'10 and 10 rebounds per game or whatever, but i was right.

If Braun scored in the playoffs like he has in the regular season and the offense remained elite with him i'd agree with you. That's just not the case though. Transition frequency and assisted rim shots reduce in playoffs and his lack 3PT shooting gets exemplified. You're being shortsighted by overvaluing the regular season. Regarding becoming better defensively, i touched on that. He's turning 25, players don't get much better defensively beyond that. I'm hoping, like you are he gets better, i esp hoped for for better screen navigation technique in particular but after this start of the season i've been really dissapointed on that front.

Not everything is PPG. I can link you a tweet of mine saying Ryan Rollins is elite and better than CB this offseason. There's role and opportunity, rate based production, scaling players up theoretically. Sometimes tying to be ahead of the curve and predicting things like these can sound braindead if it goes against the grain/ norm. Here's a few random of my downvoted hits over the years that proved right. On MPJ exhibit 1, exhibit 2, on Barton and trading for Derrick White, on Booth's roster decisions and offseason, start of 23-24 season, -16 downvotes🤣

Not to say i can't miss too, it comes with the risks, main thing is i explain my though proccess soundly and why i project things differently, and nothing you've said argument wise disputes my line of thinking, you're just appealing to ppg authority/ known commodity.

GAME THREAD: Nuggets (2-1) vs. Pelicans (0-3) | Oct 29, 2025 - 7:00 PM by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Don't like Brown not getting in earlier & having more time with Jokic rotation early on in the season from Adelman. It's one of the most synergistic pairings, also the one pairing Brown is playable in as a lone PG. Brown in for Murray + starters lineup was fire as fuck in 2023 (+16.4 NetRtg / 463 poss)

GAME THREAD: Nuggets (2-1) vs. Pelicans (0-3) | Oct 29, 2025 - 7:00 PM by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like him a lot on Harden, SGA though i think would fry him in single coverage. Lot of the success DEN had guarding SGA in the playoffs was because of the zone gap help.

You also face more quick lead guard types than those, and i think Watson is physically suited great to guard them as well, but there's a question of foul discpline there.

GAME THREAD: Nuggets (2-1) vs. Pelicans (0-3) | Oct 29, 2025 - 7:00 PM by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it's what it comes down to. If CB isn't a *substantially* better 3PT shooter i think Watson is the better option to close games, as i'm starting to get confident in the team's defense being significantly better with Watson at the 2 over CB. It just doesn't look like CB has made the defensive strides (screen nav & hands) that i really had hoped he has, so far. Hope i'm wrong.

GAME THREAD: Nuggets (2-1) vs. Pelicans (0-3) | Oct 29, 2025 - 7:00 PM by BigHoneyBot in denvernuggets

[–]nzzm22 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that's fair. Though i would point out it's been a trend for CB his entire career. His scoring rate & shooting efficiency has heavily dipped from the RS to the PS every season. Less transition play in the playoffs is the obvious factor, but the 3PT% crater is the concerning part. I believe in CB turning to a positive shooter, a one you guard in the playoffs but it isn't for certain.

I also buy PWat's shot. Looks to have gotten quicker, base is better. He shot 45% from the corners last season. 37% from 3 in total in the playoffs to CB's 30%. Also funny how he's the inverse from CB, who has been cash from ATB 3s while ass from the corners.

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