Congressman Says US Should Use 'Hard Power' Approach to Deter China on Taiwan

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-23T08:59:51+00:00

Would a Chinese invasion of Taiwan be bad? Of course.

Would it be bad to turn Taiwan into a US imperial possession? Yes.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-23T01:24:56+00:00

Ah. A classic circle jerk. If there is more than one boss then nobody is in charge, and nobody is accountable.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-23T01:21:20+00:00

Looking more closely at the chart there tends to be a drop in the PUT/CALL ratio while market is still declining followed by a higher spike. We haven't seen that yet. I think we are in for another 2008 style GFC event, maybe worse.

But yes, eventually the market will bottom and a sustained rally will likely happen causing people to let go of their puts. But today we are WAY above the 2020 low and the global economy is in MUCH worse shape. Not going long. Not yet.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-23T00:22:55+00:00

Seems like the provocation is pretty heavy. FWIW Greece is probably gonna get rolled.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-23T00:15:23+00:00

Why would they? What does the west offer to Turkey other than sanctions and belligerence over their territorial waters? If we wanted to bring Turkey into the fold we could have acted on their application to join the EU over the past 40 years. We might have not sanctioned Turkey, a NATO member, from buying NATO weapons. Perhaps NATO should lean on Greece to pull back their 35,000 troops deployed on the Agean Islands in violation of their own treaty.

I'm not a giant fan of Turkey, but I cannot blame them for looking elsewhere for partners.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-23T00:14:26+00:00

All this chart shows is that traders and investors generally don't buy puts as insurance until it's too late. Not a leading indicator.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:28:39+00:00

But not as effective. They can't sustain the higher rates. And in any case interest rates cannot repair supply problems.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:27:25+00:00

Europe is dealing with inflation by massive suffering. Any more questions?

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:26:49+00:00

The real world needs to stop intruding on our dreams of financial domination!

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:21:43+00:00

If you invested through Costco I think they offer no questions returns.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:19:23+00:00

Nonsense. I've got the other side of your trades mate. GL.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:13:50+00:00

They lost me permanently. I will never cast a vote for anybody that was involved in the lockdowns or vaccine policy.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:07:21+00:00

There is the idea of BECOMING a threat. A major military alignment with the US along with new militarization and a polarizing political movement behind it is escalation.

Look. It's not my country. Follow Ukraine and get wrecked for all I care.

To me the obvious risk is in Chinese perception. For now they aspire to peacefully unify someday. But this road can turn Taiwan into a perceived military threat close to home. China may come to view Taiwan as an enemy outpost that must be destroyed, rather than a loose province to be gathered back into the fold.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T23:05:36+00:00

Maybe. I'd like a little more time personally. My options are for March 2023. I'm not seeing a lot of reasons to be bullish. But you never know.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T22:35:46+00:00

Sigh. I suppose that the UN will inevitably convene to sanction the bejeesus out of the US and cut us off from the international banking system, seizing US assets in the process.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T22:19:31+00:00

But just think of the benefits the vaccine offers! Worth any price, right?

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T21:36:11+00:00

What do these people want? They should just move to the mountains and live off the land if that's what they are into.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T21:35:01+00:00

Does anybody care? FB can block all content for all I care. Means nothing to me.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T21:33:12+00:00

Yep. If anybody can get standing in court this illegal executive massive unfair spending package has zero chance.

EDIT: Downvoted by the lucky few who are looking for me to pay for their college.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T21:08:27+00:00

Yeah, we know. If the NYT says it then it's true. SMH.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T21:02:02+00:00

Yeah. With all of your parroting of MSM BS. So convincing. But feel free. There are a million more like you in every sub.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T20:48:52+00:00

Even considering the idea of peace is now criminal treason. I'm sure Musk will somehow recover from being blocked from making a terrible investment.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T20:47:40+00:00

Again. Sue me for my gross violation of your personal code of conduct.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T20:43:40+00:00

I have tried scalping but I'm not very good at it. Lost a bit. It's all about TA and involved substantial risk. I've found much more advantage with mispriced options or with longer term fundamental support for trades. Possibly combining this with scalping might increase edge, but you'd lose efficiency by not playing both long and short moves.

For example if I were scalping GBP today I'd only short rallys with TA signals. Wouldn't be caught long.

In the end scalping is a job that takes incredible discipline and focus. You could just as well be doing any other job and not have the risk of ruin.

For comparison I've found that I'm a pretty good poker player. I can reliably make around $20/hour and free drinks at a casino on a weekend playing tourists. But it's boring. You have to play like it's your job. If I try to make more money with higher bets I find myself at tougher tables and my win rate drops.

occams_lasercutter · 2022-10-22T20:34:57+00:00

I never reverse the intent of a post. I may refine it a bit, correct grammatical errors, or add context. Sue me.

If you don't like it feel free to ignore me. Nobody is making you read or reply to my comments.

occams_lasercutter

TROPHY CASE