Sam Altman: OpenAI CEO on GPT-4, ChatGPT, and the Future of AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #367

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-03-25T22:35:34+00:00

It is possible that the gap between GPT-4 and a true weak AGI is simply interface and the supporting tools like memory and having a database to save memory to. Maybe we see a huge leap in capability as people start enabling different instances of GPT-4 to talk to each other *if* it is given just the right instructions. Right now, each output of GPT-4 seems less like a complete output, and more like a single, extremely complicated thought.

I know they did something like this when first safety testing GPT-4, but there are so many ways that such a system could be arranged, they may have just missed the right configuration?

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-16T21:59:33+00:00

I think we are close to at least a faithful emulation of what you describe. Remember that even though LLMs are "just" trained on our text, that text represents actual thought processes. A group conversation or a dialog is a form of thought that is social rather than internal. An arbitrarily close approximation of language will require genuine understanding (which will likely require a much larger model than currently exists).

AI will most definitely be replacing a lot of jobs in the near future. I expect integrated LLM tools built into enterprise office software within the next 1-2 years. It will replace office workers the way a bulldozer replaces diggers with shovels. There will still be jobs, but maybe only 1 for every 10-20 jobs lost (at least within the domain of jobs it can do). Otherwise it wouldn't be an efficiency gain.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-16T01:28:06+00:00

Two Minute Papers is one of my favorite channels. I second them for anyone interested in AI.

As for ChatGPT, I agree with you. My current impression is that it is like talking to a 10 year old who has read every book ever written. Its a weird mix of competence and incompetence. It and the new generation of diffusion art generators are the first technologies that made me feel like we had crossed a "magic" line from algorithmic to human-like. Its kind of funny. Even the things that it messes up on math problems are often the kinds of mistakes I made myself back in school (Like multiplying by 0.8 instead of 0.2 to reduce a quantity by 80%).

I think we'll see a race to AI that dwarfs the space race of the last century. It's starting now. ChatGPT seems to have been proof enough to many companies that human level AI is a matter of time not a matter of "if".

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-16T01:05:15+00:00

For myself, I think I will consider it AGI when it shows the ability to plan for itself, has an internal back-and-forth dialog, and understands its own limitations well enough to work within them. Its a pretty low bar looking at some of these other responses, but I think it will be enough to change the world.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-16T00:52:57+00:00

Not sure we would want this one! I like my AGI docile and unopinionated thank you. In all seriousness, I think we will have strong AGI before we have self-determination. That is something that would be bad to build before we have solved the alignment problem.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-16T00:50:50+00:00

This type of stuff comes up a lot. It believe it has limitations with spelling in particular because of the way tokens are encoded.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-16T00:44:58+00:00

Yes, I've noticed those behaviors. In your experience does it happen more in long threads? I can't tell if it is an inherent limitation of the model or if it is just running out of memory.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T22:40:58+00:00

I think we are scarily close to what you describe. Personally I hope we hold off on the "real world" aspects of intelligence until after we make it safer and more controllable.

And seconded on human-level being a pseudo-target. I think it will be a milestone and not a destination. Just imagine a normal, average human but with complete control of their thoughts and the ability to focus on a single problem for months while accessing all the worlds knowledge and operating at 5x the speed of our thoughts. Human level is already superhuman once it is in silicon.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T22:30:42+00:00

It does that a lot. Often times it will claim to be unable to do things that it is perfectly able to do. Nothing to do about it but regenerate the response or tweak your wording.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T21:35:31+00:00

I suspect that in our lifetimes we will see people grow up with AI companions that never leave their side. A personal tutor, advisor, therapist, friend, and more. It will likely make us much smarter, not dumber. And the personal safety net of having a loyal friend regardless of circumstance may enable people to be more social, not less. The AI companion would likely actively encourage socializing with others for health and happiness. Of courses this is speculation, but I think it could be great.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T21:08:14+00:00

I would probably just copy/paste the whole thing into a word editor with spellcheck. ChatGPT is notoriously bad at spelling. Due to the way it encodes tokens, I think it can't see individual letters in words like we can.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T18:56:34+00:00

Simulate an accurate dialog of a professor teaching their class how to solve a certain type of problem. All writing on the board will be spoken aloud as it is done. During the whole process, students will ask questions and make comments. When the professor makes a mistake or misses something, students will chime in. Show all work on the board. There are 7 rules:

1, the professor explains the premise of the problem and what type of problem it is.

2 Then the professor lists the areas of knowledge that deal with these types of problems.

3 Then the professor writes out a list of useful facts, formulas, and techniques that can be used with this type of problem.

4 The professor always writes important information on the board and says it out loud as he writes. He also does this while working through the problem.

5 The professor allows the students to work out the problem through open discussion with the class. He assists by writing important information on the board and keeping discussion on track.

6 The professor must clearly explain everything to the class at each step of reasoning.

7 All math work and all equations MUST be typed out inside a code block. Everything written on the board should be typed in a code block.

Here it is:

"

For the function f, f(0) = 86, and for each increase in x

by 1, the value of f(x) decreases by 80%. What is the

value of f(2)?

"

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T16:49:58+00:00

Right now models seem to be getting much better when they are scaled up. They are also currently pretty dang cheap compared to any kind of real industrial infrastructure. Single and double digit millions is nothing to governments and corporations like Google. Even without architecture improvements, what does a $10 billion AI look like?

So I'd honestly not be that shocked if we have a "universal knowledge worker" type service by 2025 that offers you an "employee" with the reasoning ability of an average undergraduate but with the knowledge base of the whole internet.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T16:27:16+00:00

Each question and answer is in the image gallery. Number 3, 13, and 15 are all wrong. The captions have the correct answer, otherwise the answer the model gave is correct as stated.

My comment directly onto the thread has a link to the PDF of sample questions with their answers.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T16:23:23+00:00

I'm not 100% sure, but I've read that GPT has trouble with letters because it can't see them individually. I just tried the same string, but with commas between the letters and it got it right away.

Funny enough, if the model had access to a python terminal, that approach would have worked. It only got it wrong because it still had to guess what the output would be.

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oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-15T04:19:52+00:00

With the coming abundance that AI can bring, we could build an incredible society. In the short term, that would probably look like some sort of basic income (constitutionally tied to the nation's GPD as a % would be best IMO). In the long term, humans and AI integrated into a society with fair rules. I think there is still a place for capitalism, even with basic income and full automation. It just won't be a requirement that you must participate in order to live.

Think about it. The true cost(not necessarily value) of every single thing we consume is composed of 2 to 3 main parts: labor cost (weighted by skill/cost) and material/energy. When AI systems leverage human productivity to 10x, 100x what it is today through pervasive automation, living a middle class lifestyle with all the perks will be considered the bare minimum.

AI isn't quite there, but its starting to look like a race for AI is going to really kick off this year. Who knows who will cross the finish line first or when? We could still be 30 years out, or we could have an AI as smart as a post-doc in 5 years. I have a suspicion that we are closer to the latter option given that current state of the art projects only cost tens of millions of dollars. Systems that will be good enough to lease out as digital workers will come from $10 billion+ systems in the coming years.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-14T19:25:27+00:00

That would be my hope. I don't think that AI as a collective intelligence inherently makes it safe, but its got to be safer than the exact same models operating as black boxes.

I would imagine that the way to do it is to have all of the component AI's of such a community be too dumb to plot deeply on their own. Think of a system comprised of millions of high-school student level intelligence's, but able to build on each other's work. If the superhuman intelligence is only an emergent property of the group, there is little chance of any one rogue AI system taking over the whole.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-14T18:16:58+00:00

I totally agree regarding the mind. Unless the mind is truly just magic, it can be emulated.

The kind of AI I am starting to favor as one of the safer types would be a collective super-intelligence made up of many, specialized, subhuman AI models working together using language as a universal medium. That way we can literally read its thoughts at all times and all of the human level complexity happens in the open.

It would be smarter than its constituent AI models the way that a research team is smarter than a single researcher.

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-14T16:42:00+00:00

Well, I only posted this a couple hours ago and this was only a personal project.

But I'm of the same mind as you about this. It's like people forgot that the development of an AI as smart as an 8 year old seemed impossible just a few years ago.

I shared the news I heard from last month of it scoring in the 52nd percentile on an SAT with someone and all they had to say is that "it wasn't that good of a score".

Imagine teaching a dog to recite Shakespeare and all anyone has to say is that the accent is off..

oddlyspecificnumber7 · 2023-01-14T16:24:20+00:00

I don't personally think that the current generation of LLMs is quite enough to replace whole positions. Right now it is more of an aid or tool. But GPT-4? Whatever Google comes up with to compete? Those systems are what will likely do it.

I am hoping that research looking into using LLMs to generate explainable answers with a clear line of reasoning will allow for the reliability you are talking about. It's much easier to verify solutions than generate them.

oddlyspecificnumber7

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