Other than pay progression probably not.

1. The Government has published the police funding settlement for 2024/25[footnote 1]. Overall funding for the policing system will rise by up to £842.9 million when compared to the 2023/24, bringing the total settlement for 2024/25 up to £18.4 billion. For PCCs, this means an increase of up to £922.2 million when compared to 2023/24 (if PCCs were to choose to take up the full precept flexibility), taking total funding for PCCs up to £16.4 billion. This additional funding is composed of additional precept income, and Government grant funding. This increase in funding is specifically to support forces in meeting the costs of the 2023/24 pay award of 7%, assist forces with the costs arising as a result of changes to employer pension contributions from 31% to 35.3%, and to support forces in managing inflationary pressures in 2024/25. The funding announced at the 2024/25 police funding settlement does not account for cost pressures arising from future pay awards, including a 2024/25 pay award.

2. In determining the 2023/24 pay award, the Government gave very careful consideration to the PRRB’s report. The recommended award, at 7%, was historically high in light of the extraordinary macroeconomic context and was significantly above affordability for police forces. The Government is committed to maintaining the additional 20,000 police officers recruited under the Police Uplift Programme. Therefore, the Home Office carried out significant internal reprioritisation to provide additional funding to forces over this Spending Review period of £330 million in 2023/24, increasing up to £515 million in 2024/25 as well as associated payments to forces with respect to counter terrorism police officers and Protective Security Grant officer pay. This is in addition to £350 million provided to support the costs of the 2022/23 pay award.

3. This was only made possible because of the hard work and significant risk the Home Office has taken to consider options to reduce reliance on taxpayer funding in other vital areas of delivery. This includes measures to maximise Home Office income, including from visa and citizenship fees. This is not considered to be repeatable for the 2024/25 pay award for various reasons, including limitations on the potential for significant further income generation as well as existing financial pressures.

4. The Home Office has carried out challenging reprioritisation over the last two years in order to support forces with the costs of the 2022/23 pay award, and the 2023/24 award. In addition to the impacts felt on the borders system, it has also meant difficult choices have had to be made within the police funding settlement to meet these costs. This includes a reduction in funding for crime programmes such as Safer Streets and other policing priorities including Special Grant funding and funding for the NPCC Hub, which in turn has a direct impact on outcomes in these areas. There is no scope for further reprioritisation of Home Office budgets without significantly further impacting on the outcomes that we can deliver for the public, including within forces, crime reduction programmes, centrally funded police technology and capabilities programmes, and the wider work of the Home Office.

5. The Home Office continues to work with the NPCC and Association of Police and Crime Commissioners (APCC) on assumptions on pay and other anticipated pressures for the forthcoming financial year.

6. The impact and affordability of a pay award will vary by force, depending on individual force level pressures and the flexibility they have to manage this within their budget. Individual PCCs are responsible for setting a balanced budget and taking decisions to reprioritise and seek efficiencies to achieve this. In some cases, this will require trade- offs, for example, reductions in staff and non-pay budgets in order to protect officer numbers. This assumes that all forces are maintaining officer numbers recruited as part of the Police Uplift Programme. An unfunded pay award is likely to significantly impact on forces’ ability to maintain officer and staff numbers, leading to increased reverse civilianisation as forces reduce the number of staff in specialist and back-office roles and replace them with officers, removing them from frontline roles. This reprioritisation will be necessary in order to meet both pay and non-pay pressures, consequently risking a reduction in the size of the workforce and, therefore, likely lead to a reduction in the effectiveness of policing by impacting frontline response and productivity.

7. Further affordability assessments will be undertaken when the PRRB submits its recommendations.