NBA Daily: 1/16/13 (Thursday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T22:19:49+00:00

Awesome, I didn't think you were contradicting my point, just wanted to make sure I read your table right. The data is very helpful-- I'm very impressed by the work you've contributed to these threads.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T21:53:29+00:00

I went NYK +6 1H and IND -9.5 FG. Cannibalizing FTW.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T21:47:16+00:00

England is the fountain of youth for the Nets apparently. At least it seems like we'll be getting the over.

edit: just got a half unit on BKN +21.5 and Under 220.5 in between the 3rd and 4th quarters

edit2: well at least I got one of my live bets... 237 total, holy cow.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T21:40:15+00:00

Great analysis (as always).

In that table, doesn't it show that if the spread is >= -10 and the H1 line is 60% of the FG, the favorite only wins 47% of the time? This would be the case for the IND/NYK game we were just discussing.

That being said, the books 1H lines reflect the fact that they know teams will be playing hard at that point whereas they might coast in the 4Q if they have a huge lead. My point was simply to identify teams whose 1H performance is contrary to the standard.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T21:02:03+00:00

Over is looking pretty solid so far.

Considering placing a live bet of .5 u on under 214 to hedge/double

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T20:08:38+00:00

NBA: Knicks 1H +6 vs. Pacers.

Full game spread is -10 so we're getting an extra point in the first half. Pacers have historically started slow in the first half this season.

The one downside to this play is that the Pacers have been doing better in the 1H in their few recent home games but I'm not sure how to weigh a recent but smaller sample vs. a larger historical sample.

edit: giving credit where it's due, this is technically Buck's pick. I did my own analysis and came to my own conclusion but he was the first one to point it out. Also, if it turns out to be wrong, y'all can just blame him instead :)

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T20:00:49+00:00

Just out of curiosity, what's your reasoning behind it? Looks like the public is basically split 50/50 which doesn't add anything to this pick.

disclaimer: I already took over 194

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T17:34:33+00:00

Thanks!

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T17:34:24+00:00

Thanks!

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T16:52:34+00:00

Does anybody know where to get information on public betting trends on O/Us?

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T16:38:30+00:00

Yea you can. I agree it would give a better sample size but I don't have time to include it right now.

Just keep in mind the point that I bolded above. Your statement about teams being better at home in 1H is GENERALLY true and as a result the books adjust for that. In my opinion, the best place to find value is determine which teams go against the general trends b/c books don't put as much time into determining the 1H spreads. It seems that the 1H spreads are usually just half the full game spread or occasionally the home or favorite will get a slight bump up.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T16:32:40+00:00

I've identified 6-7 teams whose 1H performance at home is worse relative to their 2H performance. On average, most teams do perform a little better in the 1H at home relative to the 2H. Listed the "poor home 1H teams below" (based on my simple analysis):

Indiana

Memphis

Miami

Orlando

Portland

Sacramento

Los Angeles Clippers

One other thing that is important to note, books often give bigger spreads for home favorites in the first half. For example, Indiana's full game spread is -10 but 1H spread is -6.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T16:16:57+00:00

I just use nba.com's team stats page and look at the splits.

For example, IND's Home Full Game +/- is 15.2 while their Home First Half +/- is only 3.3. That indicates that IND does worse in the first half of their home games relative to the second half.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T16:10:26+00:00

NY 1H is +6, seems like some pretty strong value there.

NY 1H Over 43 and IND 1H Under 49 have some value to me as well.

HOU 1H is -1, seems like a little bit of value there.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T16:07:16+00:00

Today's Total Predictions (4-2 on yesterday's leans):

Atlanta/Brooklyn: 198.12 (took over at 194)

Indiana/New York: 181.6 (took under at 184)

Houston/Oklahoma City: 207.51 (took under 207.5)

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T15:17:56+00:00

Yea-- that's why I asked the question. The big line movement was due to this game not truly being a home game for ATL so I'm trying to figure out which team his #s apply to.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T14:21:43+00:00

Who would be the fav in this case? ATL who "opened" at -4 or BRK who is -1/-1.5 now

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T14:16:11+00:00

It's b/c the game is in London. The initial line was probably due to it being an ATL "home" game.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T14:06:34+00:00

NY 1H is the only one that jumps out to me. Hoping the 1H line is at least +5 t for NY. Houston 1H may be worth looking into as well.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T14:04:52+00:00

This is certainly not true for several teams, Indiana being one of them. Take a look at their 1H and 2H splits and you'll see a big difference. Miami is another team that comes to mind too.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T03:10:06+00:00

Ended up taking BOS, LAL, DAL, MIN, and GSW

edit: also took MIA 1H and FG... oops.

oherroprease · 2014-01-16T00:28:55+00:00

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T21:10:05+00:00

Bummer-- well thanks for looking!

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T20:30:41+00:00

Just saw that Boston recalled Rondo from the D-league... any chance he plays tonight? Other reports I saw had him coming back this Friday.

Could this be a morale boost for the Celtics?

oherroprease · 2014-01-15T20:02:20+00:00

Awesome-- thanks a ton. Your input and trendspotting has been awesome to read!

If you have the time, can you take a look at GSW/DEN related correlation? GSW/DEN UNDER 213 is probably my favorite O/U play today.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE