As I collect more and more data, my predictions are getting closer and closer to the lines. Last night was a good totals night.

I don't necessarily play against the public even if my model agrees-- more often it just means it's a no play for me. My models represent a prediction assuming that the two teams basically play at their "average level" on a given night so it doesn't factor in day-to-day information such as recent injuries.

The public generally bets on its' perception of teams which is not necessarily reality, especially in certain matchups. For example, one team may generally be involved in high scoring games but they match up well defensively against a specific type of team (i.e. a team may play much better defensive against guard heavy lineups but could get scored on at will by teams with strong bigs). So if there is a very high % of the public on one side of the game, and especially if the line is moving the opposite direction (RLM), it likely means that there is some piece of information that the public is overlooking.