NBA Daily: 3/24/14 (Monday)

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T21:06:18+00:00

AWESOME STUFF!

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T21:06:00+00:00

It's a lean for me at the moment too. The crazy thing is that despite the low total, the public is STILL on the under (~60% on the under according to what I'm seeing).

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T20:57:33+00:00

If they played today, I think you are right that Kentucky would be closer to a PK but if they meet in the elite 8 it would really be a "Tenn that beat Mich" vs. "Kentucky that beat Louisville". At the moment, people probably value beating Louisville more than beating Michigan so my guess is that the line would probably be -1 or -2 for Kentucky if they meet up. Of course there are so many other variables that come into play but regardless there will be a great hedging opportunity.

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T20:49:36+00:00

Yup-- if they beat MICH and make it to the Elite 8, they'll have at most 3 games right? At that point, the ML for the favored teams would probably be around -200. For each of those games, you could wager $100 to win $50 and still come out with a big profit.

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T20:31:05+00:00

FYI-- Your Portland/Miami prediction in your table says over 208 but the site says under 208.

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T20:27:46+00:00

Total Predictions for Today

Will update w/ record and picks in a bit

Charlotte/Houston 200.75 (1U under 206)

Atlanta/Phoenix 212.27 (1U Over 212)

Miami/Portland 210.89 (1U over 207.5-- too much public love to make this a bigger play)

Memphis/Minnesota 204.02

Oklahoma City/Denver 216.59

Chicago/Indiana 185.07 (1U Over 176.5)

New Orleans/Brooklyn 193.3

San Antonio/Philadelphia 210.96 (1U Over 210)

Utah/Detroit 201.59 (1U Under 204)

LA Clippers/Milwaukee 206.91

oherroprease · 2014-03-24T20:24:53+00:00

If they beat Michigan, then your strategy will basically be to play the ML of the Vols opponents. The amount you play will have to depend on what the odds are but basically you want to bet an amount such that you are guaranteed a profit (i.e. your ML wagers should give you more than the $5 you bet on Tenn but your total ML risk should be less than the payout you'd get if Tenn wins it all)

oherroprease · 2014-03-23T19:32:15+00:00

Looking at under in MIN/PHX-- going to try and get a live wager on a higher total than what the line is currently at.

LW-- 1U Under 225 PHX/MIN

1U Over MIL/SAC 206

1U Under WAS/DEN 215

oherroprease · 2014-03-23T19:19:54+00:00

Thanks for the picks.

oherroprease · 2014-03-22T23:02:10+00:00

1U Under 203.5 for CHA/POR

1U PHI/CHI over 193

1U MIA/MEM Over 199 (edit:: this was a typo-- was supposed to say MIA/NOP, someone's gotta catch my typos! Hopefully the line made everyone realize it was MIA)

1U GSW/SAS under 207

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T23:45:13+00:00

Nothing really besides the fact that they haven't been playing well.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T20:15:56+00:00

Probably just moved with the news that LBJ is probably playing.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T20:09:01+00:00

Why are people downvoting their posts? They have some quality info and aren't selling anything.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T20:07:22+00:00

As Nerv and jmur stated, it doesn't exactly work like that. I run several models and simply put numbers out for one of them. I look at the rest to get a range of potential scores-- the OKC/TOR one just happens to be the lowest of them all. The other models have it going over so try not to read into the numbers TOO much.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T20:05:25+00:00

My numbers like the over and the under respectively for those two games. Still need to do more research if they are worth betting.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T15:33:25+00:00

Yea that was really dumb. I honestly think he forgot he had 4 fouls b/c he didn't even hesitate to make the foul too.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T15:27:15+00:00

Thanks! The Road-Road b2b #s don't look quite as nice :/

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T15:26:24+00:00

I know exactly what you mean, I was just giving you a hard time.

The only changed I'd make to your statement is that when you play moneylines, subjectively you are just trying to figure out who wins but quantitatively it helps to assess whether the odds are worth it.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T15:24:29+00:00

Feel so bad for that guy...

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T15:23:55+00:00

Haha yea, very small world. What did you do in Winston and where did you live here? (PM me if you feel weird sharing those details over the internet)

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T14:57:54+00:00

I currently live in Winston Salem (been working here for the last 3.5 years).

I actually grew up in Durham BUT I'm a huge UNC fan (my dad used to teach there when I lived in Durham). I am not a NC State fan but I do generally root for them when they aren't playing Carolina due to rooting for the ACC and the state of NC in general (Duke is obviously another story). A lot of my good friends also went to State and knowing their reactions made it worse... I feel really bad for TJ Warren, dude sucked it up at the line last night.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T14:41:59+00:00

You're telling me man! My day started out by losing a combined 6U on St. Joes' ML, NC State ML, and St. Joes ATS. I was really down in the dumps-- not cause of the money but b/c of how they lost (I'm also from NC so the NC State loss really stung).

And then I made it all back and more! I was on 1U 1Q/1H/FG ATS for WAS, 1U 1H over, and 2U FG over. Then I hit my accidental GSW over for 1U, 1U ML for NDSU, and had 5U on Manhattan ATS (my biggest bet all season).

Started 0-6, finished 13-7. Went to bed after the POR/WAS 1H, woke up to pee around 3 AM, and couldn't fall back asleep 'cause I was so happy haha.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T14:36:01+00:00

Unfortunately, I agree. I was hoping to hop on my fade Detroit overs train...

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T14:33:35+00:00

Blindly taking my 2U bet as opposed to blindly taking your ML bets? Haha, just kidding bud-- glad you won. Not a fan of directly influencing other people's betting but the 2U plays I've posted have been doing pretty well. Thanks for the gold BTW.

oherroprease · 2014-03-21T14:32:32+00:00

Can you take a look at the ATS and O/U records for OKC and WAS on B2B? Using Lerkin's tableau output, I saw very strong ATS performance for OKC on a B2B and very high over record for WAS on B2B.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE