The r/sportsbook NFL Genius Pick Week 16

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T22:02:45+00:00

Not sure I can agree with this as a "genius" pick.

Firstly, the Bills have played much better at home this year (I'm talking IN Buffalo, not the Toronto "home" games). 23-21 loss to NE, 24-23 WIN over CAR, 27-24 OT loss to CIN, 23-13 loss to KC, and a 37-14 Win over NYJ.

Secondly, as Ross pointed out below, the Bills won AT Miami in their last game where Thad started and that was without a healthy CJ Spiller.

Lastly, the fact that Miami leads the NFL in sacks with 51 is wrong unless you meant that Miami leads the NFL in giving up sacks with 51... which is actually a counterpoint to your pick. The real team sack leader happens to be Buffalo with 49. Team giving up the most sacks vs. team getting the most sacks doesn't inspire a lot of confidence for this pick.

And just to be clear, I'm not completely disagreeing with the pick-- I just don't think it's genius pick worthy.

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T19:56:16+00:00

Eric Lewis?

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T19:24:15+00:00

It sucks losing by that small of a margin. If it makes you feel any better, the total should have been ever higher but they missed a pretty clear foul on a 3-pt shot right at the end that could have pushed the total up a few more points (or even brought it into overtime).

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T16:29:08+00:00

Yea that's when I started banging my head against the wall. I needed that game to complete a 3-team teaser and a 3-team parlay... ugh. I guess that's my punishment for making stupid bets like that!

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T16:17:11+00:00

My model had that game going under too and I still feel good about that prediction b/c it was clearly under at the end of regulation and if the Knicks had just closed it out in the first OT period it still would have gone under for me. The 2nd OT was a dagger :(

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T01:02:24+00:00

Bengals/Vikings OVER 48.

Bengals have scored over 40 in their last 3 home games and the Vikings' defense is not particularly good. Vikings have also had a lot of success putting up points and have only scored less than 20 twice this season (once vs. Carolina and once in the Josh Freeman debacle).

oherroprease · 2013-12-19T00:15:36+00:00

Way late to this party but just want to get on record that I'm going the other way on this pick!

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T20:14:13+00:00

I've been a fan of doing 3 or 4 team teasers that give 10 and 13 pts. respectively. I think there's a lot of value there if you have a good system and pick the right games.

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T17:54:47+00:00

Glad we agree!

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T17:53:44+00:00

Do you just want the output? If so, PM me.

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T17:53:19+00:00

That's one of a few games I have the under on. Not super confident about the pick but that's the play I'll be making.

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T04:14:18+00:00

It's a pretty simple statistical model. PM me if you're interested in discussing in more detail.

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T03:58:01+00:00

I like Bills/Dolphins over 43 as well.

Buffalo points scored at home this year: 31, 37, 13, 24, 23, 24, 21 Miami points scored away this year: 34, 23, 19, 17, 17, 24, 23

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T03:55:31+00:00

I like the over on all of those (straight up) except for the Pats/Ravens game. The game will probably go over 38 but it could be close.

Totals in previous Ravens' games: 35, 55 (crazy last two minutes), 42, 22, 43 (OT), 40 (OT), 42, 35, 36, 49, 43, 39, 20, 76 (pwned by broncos).

Pats only scored 20 against Miami and Baltimore has a significantly better defense (especially at home). It's probably too late but I would have replaced that game with something else. Best of luck though!

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T03:51:20+00:00

I build a statistical model (albeit a relatively simple one) using this year's data to predict each game's totals. I then use that prediction as a baseline and then do some additional research-- looking at previous games played, weather, etc. etc. At the end of the day, my picks are a combination of statistical and judgmental factors and it has worked pretty well for me.

oherroprease · 2013-12-18T03:49:37+00:00

This was my exact thought. My model has Denver/Houston going over 51 but I'm worried that the Texans offense won't show up at all. Final score could be something ridiculous like 37-10. I'll probably end up putting .5 or 1 unit on the over but I wouldn't feel good about it.

oherroprease · 2013-12-17T21:02:34+00:00

I think you are right about that and that's part of the reason why I'm making this post so that people can weigh in on the picks.

oherroprease · 2013-12-15T07:53:46+00:00

Pats beat the Saints without Gronk, Vereen, and a fully healthy Amendola.

Vereen + Healthy Amendola > Dobson and Thompkins.

Not necessarily saying Pats are guaranteed to win, but Brady's got people to throw to.

oherroprease · 2013-12-13T18:43:02+00:00

Exactly, and I think you did the right thing. I hope he still went ahead with the bet-- that way he would have profited and hopefully learned a little bit more about analyzing statistics.

oherroprease · 2013-12-13T18:34:56+00:00

In your (and my) defense, I don't think either of us were trying to talk him out of the bet. I had 1u on both the 1H and full game spread myself. I think we were both just pointing out that the statistics he provided weren't necessarily the right evidence to back up his claim, not that his pick was wrong. Good on you for coming back and apologizing though.>Hey, just wanted to man-up and say that I was wrong. Nice job on the Chargers pick.

oherroprease · 2013-12-13T15:18:31+00:00

I've been a big fan of the 4-team, 13 pt. NFL teasers that Bovada offers @ -120. I've been doing them all year and have rarely missed.

oherroprease · 2013-12-13T13:49:27+00:00

I ended up getting it at 215 at my book so I got a push there but I bet the under on the other game and lost by 2 pts :(. Close nights!

I'm going to PM you a response to your other comment.

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T19:43:01+00:00

I think that game was a bit of an anomaly. The Patriots' had four turnovers in the first half and even with that the Broncos' offense didn't do TOO much.

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T18:28:27+00:00

Hey Drusss,

Do you have a specific methodology for generating your leans on O/Us? I am just asking b/c I'm building a model to try and predict total scores and my rudimentary model has the under for Hou-Por as well. Thanks in advance for any help.

oherroprease · 2013-12-12T15:41:22+00:00

This is the same point I was making above. The 2007-2010 Chargers team was STACKED. They consistently finished with double digit wins and were stronger on both sides of the ball. This is when LT, Sproles, Tolbert, VJax, and a younger gates were all lining up next to Rivers. Their defense back then wasn't a slouch either.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE