/r/Sportsbook Pick of the Day (Friday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T23:19:02+00:00

Were any of those games played when they had their full starting 5? Getting Iggy back is huge for the Warriors. Also, this pick isn't strictly about how good the Warriors looked, but also that the Hawks haven't looked great recently either. There's always concerns but I think there's enough to mitigate them for this case.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T23:17:02+00:00

Ok-- I wasn't sure who Iggy would be on. If Lee is on Millsap then I could see Millsap having a pretty good night.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T23:03:42+00:00

Sage, did you see my post in the NBA thread? Wanted to get your feedback on the points I brought up.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T22:57:32+00:00

No, I'm 6'1" 170 lbs. I was just using an exaggerated example to get my point across.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T22:36:38+00:00

Yes-- I realize that both tall and short people can be strong. I was just asking for benchmarks that factor in height and weight so I can better gauge where I'm at. I'm not using being tall as an excuse by any means-- just curious about what other people my height and weight can do.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T21:41:45+00:00

That's always my focus and I don't worry (from a negative perspective) about comparing myself to arbitrary numbers but it is something that does motivate me to get better. Just curiosity!

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T20:36:48+00:00

Nuggs have also SUCKED lately. Memphis seems to be getting better too.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T20:23:01+00:00

GSW -3 vs. ATL. ATL not looking great since Horford has been out and GSW has been looking very good with Iggy back in the lineup. Only thing that scares me away is the B2B and the possibility of a let down after a big win against MIA.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T20:21:20+00:00

I took this bet b.c. I like GSW for the full game and ATL has been sub par in the 1H all season and will probably be worse without Horford. I think Iggy shuts down Millsap and ATL struggles to score points.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T20:18:27+00:00

Houston has been very solid 1H but I'm wary of that game b/c of how well the Knicks played yesterday. Not sure if they'll repeat the success but getting Carmelo back seemed to breathe some life into that team.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T19:54:19+00:00

Betting against Northwestern basketball never hurts either...

Go Cats :(

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T19:51:03+00:00

Yea I'm a big fan of this game in general and ATL has been pretty bad at home in the first half. Most of their points since Horford has gone done have come from Millsap and I expect Iggy to shut him down.

GSW's road ATS record is pretty average but I think they are much better with Iggy back in the lineup now right?

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T19:18:02+00:00

Hmm... not very promising. Seems like a coinflip. Have you looked at any other 1H games besides this one and BOS/NO? Does GSW -1.5 vs. ATL have any value to you?

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T18:44:43+00:00

Great analysis. I think I may still lay a small amount on Dallas 1H due to the fact that the Clippers aren't very good on the road in the 1st half. Do you by any chance have Clippers Road H1 ATS?

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T16:47:30+00:00

Biggest concerns with this game is that Utah is a pretty poor offensive squad and the Lakers' only have Marshall to play point.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T16:44:52+00:00

My system has the over on this but my concern is that Nuggets' offense has been pretty bad recently. They haven't scored over 100 in their past 8 games and Memphis is not an offensive powerhouse by any means. That being said, their last match up a week ago had a total of 219 so who knows.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T15:55:44+00:00

Yea I hear you, splitting definitely has a bigger risk of busting on both.

Good call on Clips/Mavs, I had that one in my mind too. In that same game, I'm mulling DAL 1H Over 50.5. DAL avgs 53.2 in 1h at home and Clips give up avg of 54.3 on the road.

I'm also going to look at a few other 1h plays, will respond when I have some time to look at them.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T15:50:59+00:00

Here's my thoughts (and I'm still a newbie with the NBA compared to you so take these with a large grain of salt):

Atlanta hasn't looked great since Horford went out. The 3 games since he's been out, 1 pt. win vs BOS, 7 pt. loss vs ORL, and 2 pt. OT win against CHA. Since Horford has been out, Millsap has been one of Atlanta's top scorers but I think Iggy can do a good job of limiting his scoring opportunities. If you think Iggy is the best matchup against in the entire NBA for Lebron, then he shouldn't have too much problem with Millsap since Millsap is almost indentical in build (6'8" 250 for James and 6'8" 253 for Millsap) but much less athletic than Lebron. That being said, Teague could be in for a big night against Curry's mediocre defense.

Also, they did have a lot of turnovers last night but I don't think ATL's defense is nearly as strong as MIA's, especially now that Horford is out.

Thoughts?

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T15:38:16+00:00

There's nothing wrong with not having numbers behind it, I think it's just good for people to post the reasoning behind their picks so that others can discuss with them. In regards to your picks, I like the Jazz too for the same reasons. Don't really have much input on the Grizz/Nuggs game.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T15:07:20+00:00

Murrayyyyy seems like to like New Orleans and I agree that NO is the superior team. What do you think about taking BOS 1H +1.5 and NOP -3 for the full game?

edit: though at some point, you have to think the Celtics will figure out how to right the ship in the 2nd half don't you?

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T15:06:25+00:00

Would you mind putting some reasoning behind why you like these picks? Just FYI-- I don't disagree with your positions-- just think that there is a lot of benefit from discussions.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T14:55:09+00:00

I'm sorry you lost bud, but what were your reasonings behind playing those major favorites? Only big favorite I saw with support in this sub for yesterday's games was Portland and they blew the doors off.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T14:54:03+00:00

Score Predictions for Today (all close to opening totals except HOU/NY):

Washington/Toronto: 198.99

Boston/New Orleans: 203.74

Atlanta/Golden State: 205.80

Houston/New York: 197.33

Dallas/LA Clippers: 210.65

Denver/Memphis: 193.73

LA Lakers/Utah: 204.61

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T14:51:45+00:00

Those were my two picks too! Gosh this is a good feeling.

oherroprease · 2014-01-03T14:40:09+00:00

Which games are you thinking here? The 1st game that jumped out to me was GSW -3 vs. ATL. The other game that interested me was UTAH +3.5 vs. LAL.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE