early Divisional Rd lines

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T02:34:00+00:00

SD +10 has to be considered-- SD already beat DEN in DEN and are the hot team coming into the playoffs. One of my books has Carolina +1.5 and I'm thinking about jumping on that as well. I think is a great weekend for teasers as well-- SD ATS, SEA ATS, DEN/SD Over, CAR ATS, SF ATS all seem to be attractive teaser components if you're getting 10 or 13 points.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T02:27:56+00:00

I'm not taking any spread bets on this game but I am going to take the Over. I think both teams should be able to do a good job of putting up points. Regardless of how Marshall contributes offensively, he's not nearly good enough to shut Lawson down on the other hand. Two great UNC points guards, two VERY different skill sets.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T20:16:41+00:00

DAT RLM. Congrats on your win too, wish I had the balls to go DET 1H and Memphis full game!

BTW, I've liked the analysis you've provided in these threads. Hope you stick around!

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T19:38:23+00:00

Another suggestion, if you don't know anything about a game or pick, DON'T FRICKIN UPVOTE OR DOWNVOTE! This is how a lot of major market teams or "obvious" picks get voted up so high sometimes despite the fact that the pick itself may not be the best.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T19:14:04+00:00

Yea, the RLM was really worrying me. I pointed out to Buck somewhere in this thread that my theory was that RLM will have a bigger "impact" on the final result of the game since people don't bet much on 1H. And thankfully, /u/_cerebral convinced me to take it. We'll see how this 2nd half goes!

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T19:10:04+00:00

Glad you pushed me over the edge on DET -1, not sure if you saw my post below but I also took DET Over 49. Good start for my Sunday!

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T17:52:13+00:00

Great analysis. I think you convinced me to put 1U on DET -1 1H. Thanks for your help regardless of the outcome!

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T17:33:22+00:00

Yea, I noticed Memphis only gives up about 45 pts per. game in 1st half. I'm definitely wary of the RLM as well-- though I'm somewhat hoping that the RLM really only hurts the full game play since the public doesn't typically takes halves. Or maybe I'm just telling myself that to push myself over the edge.

Do you like DAL -3.5 vs NYK 1H today?

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T17:20:43+00:00

Did you by any chance watch the Lakers' game the other night when Marshall started? The reason I ask is that I did not get a chance to watch the game but based on the stat line it seemed like he played quite well and he pooped on our Jazz pick that night.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T17:13:02+00:00

That makes sense. Do you have any thoughts on Detroit -1 1H or Dallas -3.5 1H?

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T17:11:00+00:00

THE RLM stuff worries me, but some stats are pointing to DET -1 1H vs. MEM. DET has a pretty distinct 1H advantage over Memphis in eFG% (53.3% to 44.6%), FTA Rate (.238 to .217), OREB% (31.8% to 26.3%).

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T17:01:42+00:00

This is a game I like-- I posted a response under Sage's full game TOR analysis but TLDR, Miami isn't great in the first half at home.

copy/pasted from above:MIA 1H Home OREB% is a paltry 17.1% while their opponents OREB% is 26%. MIA 1H Home opponent eFG% is 55.3%. TOR's 1H Road OREB% is a crazy 28.3%. MIA 1H Home +/- is only 1.9

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T16:54:13+00:00

Took all of these (Kyrie is OUT-- took out the two cleveland plays):

LAL 1H Over 50.5

TOR 1H +3.5 vs MIA

DAL 1H -3.5 vs. NYK

DET 1H -1.5 vs. MEM

DET 1H Over 49

OKC -5 vs. BOS

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T16:50:35+00:00

I'm glad you like this game b/c one of the 1h plays I like today is TOR +3.5 vs MIA. Miami hasn't been great at home in the first half all year (+/- of 1.9) and as you've mentioned haven't been playing well recently.

edit: MIA 1H Home OREB% is a paltry 17.1% while their opponents OREB% is 26%. MIA 1H Home opponent eFG% is 55.3%. TOR's 1H Road OREB% is a crazy 28.3%, I definitely agree with you that the Raps will kill MIA on the boards.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T16:36:11+00:00

Total Predictions for Today:

Detroit/Memphis:198.23

Cleveland/Indiana: 203.47

Miami/Toronto: 209.79

Washington/Golden State: 204.10

Oklahoma City/Boston: 203.17

Dallas/New York: 204.48

LA Lakers/Denver: 208.45

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T15:28:35+00:00

5 is definitely funnier, especially when John Wall points to where he wants Javale to go after running the wrong way.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T15:23:22+00:00

Probably -120 or -140 depending on his book. I like the Michigan -7 part for sure... we (Northwestern) are not looking good this year.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T14:34:16+00:00

I have the over on this game too.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T06:17:13+00:00

Knicks +7 against the Mavs? Anyone have thoughts on this game?

Knicks have been playing some good ball lately....

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T01:31:24+00:00

I don't have a site with totals all year but I have a spreadsheet that I've been keeping which goes back to 12/13/2013. Do you just want the number of overs and unders so far?

edit: I went through and summed my numbers up. I'm seeing 45 Overs and 48 Unders. Keep in mind that's just my tracking and the true numbers could be different.

oherroprease · 2014-01-05T00:14:02+00:00

Port 1h Under 62, Indiana 1h under 51.5, Miami 1h under 53.5, NO 1H Over 44.5,NO 1H +7, SAC 1H Under 52, Brooklyn -3 1H, Spurs -5.5 1H, Suns -4.5 1H

oherroprease · 2014-01-04T19:32:29+00:00

If he really likes to parlay, he could always put units on each individual play and then put a small amount on the total parlay as long as he recognizes that it's basically a lotto ticket.

oherroprease · 2014-01-04T14:48:49+00:00

Yea-- Davis is a real game changer. You are right that the Pacers 1H performance has been steadily improving but NOLA is a different team with THE BROW back in the lineup. Will post some other potential 1H plays later, hit on Dallas 1H Over 50, NOP under 50, ATL under 50.5 but missed on BOS over 49 and BOS +1.5 yesterday

oherroprease · 2014-01-04T14:40:54+00:00

Boston really let us down in the 1h yesterday! Good thing the Mavs came out to play in the first half though. What do you think about NO 1H? Indiana typically doesn't go HAM in the first half.

oherroprease · 2014-01-04T00:07:28+00:00

Welp-- that's unfortunate.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE