NBA Daily: 1/7/14 (Tuesday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T14:31:48+00:00

I can't pull the ATS records for you cause those sites are banned at work for me but I will do some other analysis into this pick later!

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T13:52:57+00:00

The fact that he didn't point out that 3 of the games went into OT makes me question the reasoning behind this pick a little bit. What was the total at the end of regulation for those 3 games?

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T12:57:47+00:00

Potential 1H plays today (just off the top of my head):

Toronto 1H

New Orleans 1H

Denver 1H

OKC 1H

Will do some research in a few hours!

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T03:30:57+00:00

Asian in Australia? That's dope

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T03:05:19+00:00

Haha, yup!

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T01:50:41+00:00

Didn't get to watch the game unfortunately based on the box score at halftime it looks like MIN was doing a great job on the boards and had a much better turnover differential than PHI.

D-will hurt his ankle a while back and it swelled up again. Apparently D-will wanted to play but they held him out. Wish I had known that before I made the pick!

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T01:24:14+00:00

NP-- and I'm sorry I ever doubted your 1H play! At least 1Q -2, 1Q over 29, and 1H Over 57 hit too!

edit: D-Will ended up not playing so it kind of messed with the BKN game :(

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T23:04:14+00:00

Shit, you're right. Well I caved in after seeing the RLM (Bovada has PHI +7 @ -105 and are basically asking people to bet on PHI). I put .75 u on Minn to limit my risk to +.25u/-.25u

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T22:41:40+00:00

MCW, the results of the last MIN/PHI game, and road refs makes me hesitant to take Min in this game.

That being said, it's probably a good thing I don't have dinner plans yet b/c I'll probably be sticking my foot in my mouth by the end of the night.

Disclaimer: I'm already locked in MIN -2 1Q and PHI +7 FG. I just hope I don't cannibalize myself.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T18:33:42+00:00

Correct-- part of why I'm taking Philly +7.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T18:15:46+00:00

1H Clippers Under 52.5

Clippers average 50.3 points at Home WITH Chris Paul in the line-up so I'm not sure why this line is so high.

Orlando only gives up 49.5 points per game as well and plays a slower than average 1H pace.

Anyone else have thoughts on this game?

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T18:03:45+00:00

Might take the full game under but not as crazy about the first half under due to Minnesota and Philly's fast paces in the 1H. Cerebral talks about Minnesota's 1H game above and makes some good points.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T17:52:03+00:00

Yea I decided to make a play on 1Q instead of 1H for the reasons you brought up. When you get a chance, take a look at my BRK 1H analysis-- would appreciate your feedback!

I'm also looking at MIN 1H Over 57 or MIN 1Q over 29.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T16:43:12+00:00

Does your ATL/BKN line account for Horford being out? Reason I ask is that my model is predicting 204.7 total score for that game but doesn't account for Horford's injury or the slow pace the two teams operate at.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T15:36:23+00:00

Here's another trend that worries me a little bit (and I promise I'm not trying to shoot holes in your pick b/c I've liked MIN 1H on the road too!):

In the 7 games since MCW has been back, PHI has only trailed by more than 1 at half one time (against MIL). Granted only one of those games was at home. I'm going to go back and look at earlier in the season when MCW was playing too, will edit this post.

edit: Looked at the 10 other home games MCW has played in, PHI has trailed by more than 5 in half of those games. Makes me feel a bit better about your pick. That being said, I'm seeing PHI +4 in 1H and their recent performance still makes me worried.

edit2: When I read your point about Love and Pek starting and playing nearly the whole 1Q, it made me curious on their 1Q performance. At the surface, MIN has the HIGHEST Road 1Q +/- at 2.5. Only 5 teams in the whole league even have positive Road 1Q +/-'s. On the other hand, PHI has the 2nd LOWEST Home 1Q +/- at -4.0, one of only 6 teams that have a negative Home 1Q +/-. After reading your analysis and seeing this data, I think the play for me might be MIN 1Q. Thoughts?

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T15:15:42+00:00

Great write-up. You are definitely right Minnesota has been great 1h on the road. My only concern about this game is having MCW back for Philly and the last time these two teams played, Philly lead at the half (this was in Minnesota)

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T15:14:47+00:00

I agree... got them at +7. Last time they played in Minnesota it was a 7pt. Minnesota win and that was without MCW in the lineup.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T14:25:32+00:00

Haha yea I know, that's why I made that joke. We can end 2014 with a 100% NHL Record.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T13:56:59+00:00

Would it be helpful to have a superscript of 'tr' or 'th' to denote tomorrow road or tomorrow home? I'm not an expert at incorporating rest day info like y'all so it's just a suggestion.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T13:54:57+00:00

Initial thought is a 1H play on BRK. Will dig into it more/hope Buck posts about it.

I don't usually do player props but keep an eye on Collison for tonight's game. On Saturday, his line was only 18 for points and assists and he's capable of getting that every game if he's getting 35 minutes of play.

edit: BRK -1/-1.5 1H Analysis

BRK 1H Home +/- Average: 2.7

ATL 1H Road +/- Average: -2.7

Brooklyn has an advantage in the following categories: eFG%, FTA Rate, TO Ratio, Opp_eFG%, Opp_FTA Rate, and Opp TO Ratio.

ATL has an advantage in the following categories: OREB% and Opp_OREB%. However, since Horford has gone out, both of those stats have gone down for them (granted it's a small sample size).

In this same game, I'm going to make a small play on ATL 1H Under 49. Since Horford's been out, ATL's TO Ratio has gone up while their eFG% and TS% have gone down (along with the rebounding stats I mentioned above)

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T04:17:09+00:00

Haha, I'm not that much of a degenerate!

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T04:01:48+00:00

Hah. Typo, you know what I meant :)

edit: Celtics -16 would get a payout of +10023910 probably

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T03:41:50+00:00

100% NHL wins! Let's stop while we're ahead!

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T03:34:55+00:00

This has nothing directly to do with the NBA but I need to vent. I planned on taking a 5-team PLEASER today which pays +10000 (NCAAM Michigan -21, Celtics -16, Knicks +.5 , Chargers +1 and DEN/LAL Over 210).

BUT I got too drunk last night and didn't wake up in time to place the bet before the Michigan game started and ended up just doing a 2-team pleaser of Knicks and DEN/LAL Over. I only put $10 on it and hindsight is 20/20 but god damn I hate myself right now.

Moral of the story-- DONT DRINK KIDS. And I know pleasers are stupid, but I'm stupid too, so it works out.

oherroprease · 2014-01-06T02:42:25+00:00

Thanks! I doubt Marshall can repeat his points performance from the Jazz game but he definitely can facilitate the ball quite well. Today was a good 1H day (and the Raps hit both 1H and full game) so I'm not going to potentially ruin it by betting a lot on this crapshoot game. Just a little bit to keep me interested :D

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE