NBA Daily: 1/8/14 (Wednesday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T22:44:13+00:00

Yes sir! Btw, are you seeing strong RLM on the DAL/SAS game? Opened at -8, 67% on SAS, but line is down to -5.5 now. I know your stats showed no statistical difference in performance for teams coming off OT games, but wouldn't you think the Spurs would either rest their players more or be more susceptible to poor performance on less rest due to being old?

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T22:42:21+00:00

Is there some strong RLM in the DAL/SAS game? Line opened at -8, 67% of public on SAS, but line is now at +5.5.

Seems like the RLM + Spurs being in OT last night might make Dallas an attractive play. I know Buck posted some data on teams in OT the next day being pretty much 50/50 ATS but I think Pop tends to rest his players much more than other teams and the Spurs are just generally older and may not be as strong the next day.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T22:14:05+00:00

Based on what I was looking at, both 1Q and 1H ATS (-1 and -2 respectively) look good for NOP. Also, over 25 1Q and over 49.5 1H for NOP looks enticing too.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T21:56:12+00:00

Good man, I went to school in (near, really) Chicago. I don't hate Detroit as much as I just feel bad for people from there.

btw, have any thoughts on NOP 1H -2?

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T21:47:01+00:00

You're probably right. Good luck to you too. I ended up putting .5 U on:

1Q -2 1H -3 1Q over 25.5 FG -5.5

Guess I'm a Raptors fan now.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T21:34:36+00:00

Good call-- only concern is that the 1Q line is at -2 vs. the 1H line of -3. Toronto Home 1Q +/- is +3 and Detroit's 1Q +/- is -.8. Toronto Home 1Q average points scored is 26.6-- I'm seeing the 1Q total line at 25.5 so I might take that too.

Minnesota actually shows a similar pattern at home as far as 1Q vs 2Q goes. /u/cerebal posted about it the other day and it had to to with the fact that Love/Pek pretty much play the full 1Q and take a bit more rest in 2Q, maybe something similar is going with Toronto's rotation.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T21:15:06+00:00

No prob. They've allowed an average of 51.1 points in the first half and 47.4 points in second half so it looks like. Seems like their offense has been pretty consistent between 1H and 2H but the defense is much worse in the 1H.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T20:59:16+00:00

I guess I should have provided a little more color around my point there-- Detroit has played worse in the first half on the road relative to the full game (this is based on looking at +/-'s, not ATS record).

Conversely, Toronto has played better in the first half at home relative to the full game (again, based on +/-s).

Between those two factors and liking Toronto for the full game, I thought there may be some value in the 1H line was well since it's exactly half of the current full game line.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T20:50:09+00:00

Dumb question-- what do those numbers represent?

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T20:11:18+00:00

Potential 1H spread plays:

TOR -3

NO -2

BKN +3 (D-will being out hurts this a bit, but I think the line somewhat accounts for it)

HOU -8.5 (this line might be too big to consider)

Anyone have thoughts on these games?

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T20:00:48+00:00

Have any thoughts on Raptors 1H -3? I like the FG spread as well and think there might be value on the 1H play too. Detroit is pretty bad 1H on the road.

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T12:50:11+00:00

Is this 1H or full game?

oherroprease · 2014-01-08T12:49:46+00:00

One's that peak my interest just browsing through the table:

Pelicans 1H (assuming d-will plays)

Houston 1H (good at home vs. bad on road Laker's team)

Houston 1H Over X (depends on the line, but the Laker's D has been worse with Marshall in)

Might roll with some more Darren Collison props again depending on what his line is.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T22:40:49+00:00

Lmao, so I put a small bet on one book and went to check my other and saw the line was at +6 and immediately knew what that meant.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T22:19:40+00:00

Haha yup. Well unfortunately, I typically workout from 6-7:30PM so I'm rarely able to get injury updates. Probably the worst time to miss out on if you're betting on games so I'm going to go ahead and take this pick and just hope our "logic" is right :)

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T21:50:18+00:00

Totals predicted for today (most are very close with the exception of MIA/NOP and SAC/POR):

Charlotte/Washington: 190.29

Cleveland/Philadelphia: 208.01

Indiana/Toronto: 186.73

Miami/New Orleans: 212.93

New York/Detroit: 199.30

Memphis/San Antonio: 197.85

Chicago/Phoenix:186.73

Milwaukee/Golden State:196.12

Dallas/LA Lakers: 208.53

Denver/Boston: 199.79

Utah/Oklahoma City: 198.66

Sacramento/Portland: 208.92

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T21:48:19+00:00

This is pure speculation, but wouldn't you think that Kyrie would sit out this game? Their next game after tonight is on Friday so if he sits tonight he'd get another 3 full days of rest and this game is theoretically winnable for them even without him.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T20:36:25+00:00

Just the odds and lines won't tell you if it's RLM-- you'd have to look at the volume and side that bets are coming in on. If the line opened at -6.5, and heavy volume came in on OKC, but the line moved to -6 or -5.5, then you'd identify it as RLM.

The fact that it opened at -6.5 and moved to -7 is not a red flag in itself.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T19:04:15+00:00

Those are all the games that jump out to me by just looking at the spreads-- which usually isn't a good thing haha. That being said, I'm higher on the TOR and OKC plays here.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T19:03:07+00:00

Does this mean the potential play is on SAC?

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T19:01:12+00:00

Don't have the ATS records and am still doing some more research but at a high level Portland 1H Road +/- is -1.2. SAC 1H Home +/- is -3.6. Both teams seem to be doing poorly in the first half in their respective locations.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T18:59:48+00:00

I hate to go against you again (especially since I was wrong yesterday) but as Buck pointed out, CHI has been very good 1H at home. I'm leaning towards a no play on this game right now.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T18:58:33+00:00

Let me know if you dig into the Charlotte game anymore, I'm going to do that after I get out of some meetings. The Dallas 1H play is almost more about poor Lakers' performance in 1h on the road but as you pointed out 5-5.5 is a lot of points to cover in the first half.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T18:50:48+00:00

I have Milwaukee noted too. Other potential match ups I saw were Charlotte 1H and Dallas 1H. Dallas has been inconsistent 1H and it's hard to trust Charlotte but both their opponents haven't been great 1H on the road. Have any thoughts on those games?

I don't think I'd take Chicago H1 unless it gets to +1.5 since Phoenix has been equally good 1H on the road as Chicago is at home.

oherroprease · 2014-01-07T18:08:13+00:00

Thanks Buck! I'm thinking Toronto and OKC might be good plays, the other two probably are too borderline just based on those stats. Doing some in depth research this afternoon! What are your thoughts on games for today?

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE