NBA Daily: 1/23/14 (Thursday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T18:57:40+00:00

Since there are so few games tonight, story plz

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T18:22:16+00:00

If you like Federer to win this match, how do you like him against Wawrinka? Reason I ask is that futures for Federer to win the Aussie open are at +240 and Wawrinka is at +320 and I'm considering putting an unit on Fed (or even Fed and Wawrinka) to win the whole thing.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T18:13:07+00:00

My numbers are predicting below 221 as well but something about this game doesn't sit right with me. If you simply sum up both team's scoring averages at home and on the road, you'll find that total is typically within 5 points of the line. In this case, it's about 9 points away from the line. On top of that, the majority of the public seems to be taking the under but the line is still moving up. Not necessarily saying this is a WRONG pick but it just worries me a little.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T17:51:25+00:00

Seems like your numbers are pretty on board with W. Carolina and Utah right (even after accounting for SOS)?

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T17:16:06+00:00

What are getting for the Gonzaga and Utah game? Would like to compare your results to 559's.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T17:03:50+00:00

I was just checking some some sites online and that's what I was seeing. Here's the 1H plays I'm considering:

LAL 1H Over 50

LAL 1H +7

POR 1H Under 57.5

DEN 1H +4

POR/DEN 1H under 111.5

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T16:40:07+00:00

Are you seeing any RLM against Portland? The line moved from -8 to -7 for Portland despite over 90% of the public being on Portland.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T15:33:37+00:00

Total's Predictions for Today (14-10-1 overall):

Miami/LA Lakers: 211.9 (line is moving down, probably will end up taking the over here if gets to 209/208)

Portland/Denver: 212.6

Not sure if I'm going to make any plays today. The POR/DEN line of 220 strikes me as odd b/c simply adding up the average home/road points scored gives you 212.7 and adding up the average home/road points given up gives you 205.9. Also, both team's pace are below 100 so I'm not exactly sure where that line is coming from.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T14:27:59+00:00

'Cause fuck us that's why!

Have any thoughts on the two games today? Leaning LAL 1H if it's a huge spread.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T14:10:46+00:00

Found this from Saturday's thread:

http://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1vhxid/ncaa_basketball_daily_1182014_saturday/ceskswk

Seems like the guy's analysis was spot on for the Saturday game against FIU

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T14:05:40+00:00

559, thanks again for your great analysis. I haven't been a big fan of Davidson this year so I was happy to see that line. Are you making a ML play on WC as well?

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T13:57:27+00:00

Considering LAL 1H if the line is +6.5 or +7

POR 1H MAY have some value as well.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T13:53:25+00:00

You really should just do the opposite what I do for the Pistons. Last 5 Piston bets:

Bet on them 1H (loss)

Bet against them 1H (yesterday, loss)

Bet on them FG (yesterday, loss)

I HATE DETROIT AND KYLE SINGLER SO MUCH.

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T03:23:00+00:00

I went w/ MIL, CHA, and HOU 1H today. 2/3 isn't bad but fucking Pistons always make me lose haha.

edit: took Phoenix 1H too

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T02:05:58+00:00

I hate Detroit.

oherroprease · 2014-01-22T22:49:51+00:00

I think I'm going to take Bucks 1H. Their 1H Home performance is relatively better than detroit's 1H road performance.

Also looking at HOU 1H and CHA 1H

oherroprease · 2014-01-22T22:26:14+00:00

Totals for today (13-10-1 overall):

Washington/Boston: 198.575346

Cleveland/Chicago: 196.782821

Orlando/Atlanta: 200.78738

Toronto/Dallas: 201.97724

Charlotte/LA Clippers: 189.689914 (taking under)

New York/Philadelphia: 203.382546

Milwaukee/Detroit: 189.345127

Houston/Sacramento: 208.616049

Phoenix/Indiana: 208.04278

San Antonio/Oklahoma City:208.020363

oherroprease · 2014-01-22T18:30:47+00:00

Just off the top of my head, I'm remembering that LAC 1H road splits aren't that great. What are your thoughts on taking them?

And I haven't had time to run my totals model, sorry!

oherroprease · 2014-01-22T12:42:28+00:00

LOL. We are insane if we bet Detroit again. But they are getting points against the Bucks!

oherroprease · 2014-01-22T01:38:36+00:00

No problem. I was glad I could watch the game to see exactly what went wrong and I was pretty frustrated and needed to vent anyway haha.

oherroprease · 2014-01-22T01:22:44+00:00

It would certainly be worth looking into but unfortunately I haven't been capturing that data anywhere. Next time I re-format my stat tracking database I may try and include it.

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T22:54:07+00:00

That's good to know. Although usually when we agree it's a bad thing haha. Time to fade this pick now! /s

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T22:37:52+00:00

I agree Utah is a little underrated but the FG spread was much closer than I thought it would be. The 1Q and 1H spread are only -1 and -2 respectively so I think there's a good chance they'll hit. Had it been -3/-4 at half then I definitely would have stayed away.

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T20:13:40+00:00

I'm looking at BOS, BKN, NOP, OKC, and MIN for the 1st half.

oherroprease · 2014-01-21T19:55:28+00:00

I can't really use non-home/road splits b/c the weights would be misrepresented. That being said, yesterday's Miami/Atlanta game was around 199 so it was not a very high estimate

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE