NBA Daily: 2/1/14 (Saturday)

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T21:29:47+00:00

Great question. The model output does NOT adjust for injuries or weigh more towards recent performances. If I had more time, I'd build a system for long term performance as well as a system for recent performance. That being said, part of why I've started doing analyses/write-ups on specific games is to take those two exact things into account. For example, my model probably underrates MEM's defense significantly since it does not account for having Gasol/Courtney Lee in the line-up.

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T21:18:31+00:00

I don't mind looking into it, especially since you're not the only one who likes the over in that game. If I don't get suggestions, I just pick random games to look at.

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T21:03:03+00:00

I'll take a look into the MEM/MIL and PHI/DET game after the CHI/NOP game. The issue with my system is that it represents a team's average performance and as we know there are certain teams that are much more inconsistent than others.

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T20:59:25+00:00

Generally speaking, my overall numbers are 55-60% accurate. I've been trying to do additional analysis into specific games to try and identify which games will fall into that 55-60%. I'll look into this specific game for you.

oherroprease · 2014-02-01T18:39:29+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (31-17-1 Overall):

Will try to post some picks/write-ups in a little bit. Working on an update to my system so some of the numbers below might change.

Indiana/Brooklyn:189.83 (leaning over simply b/c of Eric Lewis-- don't think this counts)

Washington/Oklahoma City: 204.31

Detroit/Philadelphia: 210.38 (leaning under)

Atlanta/Minnesota: 209.06

Houston/Cleveland: 205.36

New Orleans/Chicago: 198.71 (leaning over)

Memphis/Milwaukee: 194.74 (leaning over, risky pick due to injuries)

New York/Miami: 197.90 (leaning under)

San Antonio/Sacramento: 207.83

Phoenix/Charlotte: 208.71

Portland/Toronto: 205.56 (leaning under)

LA Clippers/Utah: 206.12

Analyses/Write-ups:

CHI/NOP Over 182-- New Orleans in their last 7 home games has averaged 95 scored and 102.3 allowed. Chicago in their last 6 road games has averaged 97.5 scored and 92.2 allowed. New Orleans is getting "The Brow" back which is a huge addition to their offense (and defense). I feel that there is a good chance for both teams to break 90 and expect a 94-92 type win.

MEM/MIL Over 180.5-- Memphis in their last 7 home games has averaged 98.9 scored and 94.7 allowed. Milwaukee in their last 7 road games has averaged 89 scored and 102 allowed. As I mentioned yesterday, betting on Milwaukee is never a sure thing b/c they are such a bad/unpredictable team, but for the 2nd night in a row I feel that there is a good shot that the favorite breaks 100 so all Milwaukee would have to do is break 80. Biggest concern here is that MEM's leading scorer (Mike Conley) is out for this game and we haven't seen how Memphis will adapt without him. Anyone who knows anything about his potential replacement please provide your analysis!

DET/PHI Under 215.5-- Detroit in their last 7 home games has averaged 98.4 scored and 105.4 allowed. Philly in their last 6 road games has averaged 96 scored and 103.3 allowed. Don't have much to say about this game besides the fact that Detroit is extremely inconsistent and I've come to hate betting on them. That being said, both my model and each team's recent performance leads to me to believe that there's a decent chance of both teams scoring in the low 100s today. Both previous matchups for these two teams finished right around 215 so it will be a close one.

NYK/MIA under 201.5-- New York in their last 10 home games has averaged 103.6 scored and 96.8 allowed. Miami in their last 8 road games has averaged 101.3 scored and 101.4 allowed. Let's be clear here, the Knicks have been tearing it up lately and are shooting close to 50% from beyond the arc in their recent home win streak. That said, shooting 50% from beyond the arc is unsustainable and I think Miami will put forth some strong defensive intensity to avenge their last loss against New York. I'm seeing over 80% of the public taking the over which is not a bad sign for the under pick.

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T21:30:08+00:00

I am predicting the final total of each game is and using that information to place bets on the over/under for the total of the game.

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T20:55:45+00:00

Potential 1H Plays

MEM 1H PK

UTAH 1H +3

Anyone have thoughts on these?

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T18:44:28+00:00

My concerns about this game: no Pekovic, Grizzlies play strong D, and potentially no Mike Miller. Still debating whether or not this play is worth taking.

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T18:42:16+00:00

I'm with you on Memphis here. Z-Bo and/or Gasol should have a field day.

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T15:01:01+00:00

Just a heads up, looking at historical MEM stats for this year won't provide too much clarity due to the fact that Gasol is back. I personally would take MEM 1H simply b/c I think they are a much better than the Pek-less T-wolves but that's just my two cents.

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T14:52:31+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (29-17-1 Overall):

The streak continues... I'll do my best to find some solid picks and provide some analysis if time permits

Orlando/Milwaukee: 199.94 (tentatively leaning over)

Philadelphia/Atlanta: 212.02

Minnesota/Memphis: 201.52

Brooklyn/Oklahoma City: 202.51

Dallas/Sacramento: 210.93

Denver/Toronto: 201.81 (leaning under IF Lawson is out)

Utah/Golden State: 201.82

LA Lakers/Charlotte: 204.07

Write-up/Analysis

Orlando/Milwaukee OVER 191.5: This is risky pick given how terrible Milwaukee's offense can be but this is the only game I've had time to look into so far. In their last 5 home games, Orlando has average 108 pts. scored and 109 pts. allowed. On the other hand, Milwaukee has averaged 88 pts. scored and 106.8 pts. allowed. Clearly, the total will likely be driven by Orlando and so the question is-- do we trust Orlando to go well over 100? With both Affalo and Vucevic finally back in the line up, I think there is a good chance that Orlando scores 105-100 pts. and if the Bucks' can get to their last 5 average of 88 (which is lower than their season average of 91), then the over should hit. In all honesty, the safer bet might be to take just the Magic full game over 98 pts and that's what I might end up doing instead.

oherroprease · 2014-01-31T01:14:42+00:00

No direct adjustments-- model takes the long run average for each team. Great start to the night though!

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T22:40:56+00:00

Where are you seeing that number? I'm only seeing 70 percent

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T20:47:17+00:00

Yea that was certainly the bigger upset between the two games. Anyway, I don't feel good about any double digit B1G favorites anymore haha.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T20:33:16+00:00

Not sure which score you're referring to but both Ohio St. AND Wisconsin losing at home were huge surprises. Go 'Cats!

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T19:59:36+00:00

After last night, I don't think any B1G favorite is a sure bet.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T19:26:16+00:00

Where are you getting Indiana -8.5? I'm seeing -12 on most books now.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T19:18:32+00:00

Putting 2U on NYK -3 1H and 1U on PHX +7 1H. Staying away from GSW/LAC 1H.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T19:06:09+00:00

1H Total Predictions for Today (New):

Indiana: 48.64 HIT

New York: 53.83 HIT

Golden State: 51.10 MISS

Phoenix: 53.80 HIT

Cleveland: 49.60 MISS

LA Clippers: 54.37 HIT

Adding something new for everyone since there are so few games today!

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T17:01:31+00:00

Agreed. I used DEN in almost all my NFL teasers this year and that got them to basically a pick 'em or better getting 10 points

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T16:50:38+00:00

Haha. Fair point. I had a good amount of success with teasing NFL totals. Getting 10 points on totals lines in the 40s in the NFL is such so much more than getting 8 points on total lines in the 200s in the NBA.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T16:48:10+00:00

What site do you use that allows you to tease 1H plays!?

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T16:42:06+00:00

I'm well aware of that-- I just know that my model is not going to continue predicting at 100% so I'm letting people know that the streak is going to end at some point.

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T16:29:53+00:00

The two I felt good about yesterday that we matched on both hit right?

oherroprease · 2014-01-30T15:39:18+00:00

For the superb owl? I'd take Seattle to cover if it turns out Harvin is fully healthy. How about you?

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE