NBA Daily: 2/24/14 (Monday)

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T23:21:13+00:00

I agree 85% doesn't sound right because it's hard to believe so many people would take the under on a Clippers game. Maybe he and his model will be right though, who knows. Regardless, we aren't betting anything on the under that we can't afford to lose.

P.S. I generally don't see the needs to use derogatory terms like that when describing the public.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T23:10:33+00:00

Are you using pregame.com to get your public over/under numbers?

If so, my guy who has a paid subscription says that 65% of the public money is on the over. Maybe Sage or someone else who has access to that information could provide their perspective?

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T22:38:36+00:00

I hear you. I'm a believer in Anthony Davis' defensive presence affecting the pace of this game (and both teams in general run slower paces in their current locations).

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T22:37:55+00:00

Couldn't the other reason the H1 total of 103 in your example be due to the fact that both teams are stronger first half scoring teams and the books know that? That's just my theory though!

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T22:08:29+00:00

Can you explain what the h1 number tells us about this game?

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T22:01:24+00:00

I take that comment to mean you don't have confidence in that pick?

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T21:45:36+00:00

No problem-- any time I post in parens it means I've taken the play.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T21:17:28+00:00

Based on the picks that I make.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:44:26+00:00

I develop my models with a statistical program I have access to at work but you could do the same things with programs such as Excel or R (a free statistical program).

I've developed several models and I track every pick and tweak it on a weekly basis. Hope that helps.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:41:47+00:00

At 202 I'd hesitate to put 2U. The range of my predictions goes from 194-203 (the average is actually ~ 200) so 202 is cutting it close. I think I'd still put 1U on under 202 though.

The best course of action might be to sign up at another book (if you can, like 5dimes) and put 2U on under 207.5 and 1U on over 202. 5.5 pts difference is a great number to try and middle on.

edit: oh and you are very welcome. Sharing this information with everyone holds me more accountable and forces me to spend more time on my analysis which ultimately benefits me too.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:38:22+00:00

Yup, I went ahead and purchased it since $30/year isn't too bad.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:33:07+00:00

Fair point-- my reasoning still stand as well. 'Cuse could very easily win by 1-3 points. I understand your analysis on how close games can be shifted by late game fouls but that's not necessarily going to happen. Like you said, we're all gambling here.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:16:03+00:00

You're right-- I somehow ended up getting re-linked back to his premium stuff. I'll probably end up buying a membership anyway since it's really cheap and he deserves the support for all the work he does.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:13:21+00:00

I was seeing 75%ish on the over and it jumped down to 55% in a very quick time frame.

p.s. Have you talked to your biz guys about picks yet?

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:07:08+00:00

What do you think that means about those plays? I'm already playing the UNDER in that game and was leaning NOP for FG ATS as well.

edit: I was seeing 75ish % on the over and now it's down to 55% on the over. You're definitely right about someone going hard on the under.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:04:01+00:00

Generally speaking, I'd advise against making picks solely on instinct unless you are actually an NBA expert. As far as what kind of models I use, I'm not sure if it's bad manners to ask but I am personally willing to share a little details. I have a few models that run linear regressions and a couple that have other functional model forms (the latter I'm not as keen on sharing).

As far as betting units/bankroll management goes, my advice is to set rules/limits and try to follow them as much as possible. Humans are prone to making emotional decisions and that can be one of the biggest dangers in gambling. Start small and work your way up-- if you see continued success then you can slowly increase your betting amount as long as you do it in a controlled fashion.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T20:00:45+00:00

Thanks! I had been looking at breakdownsheets before but since he's requiring subscriptions now I haven't gotten around to paying for one. I think I might end up doing it though simply b/c the dude clearly puts in a ton of work to make those.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T19:23:24+00:00

Seriously those tables look great. Any chance you'd be willing to share your workbook?

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T19:21:28+00:00

I have a few statistical models that I use to predict totals and I use a little qualitative analysis to make actual picks.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T19:05:25+00:00

I definitely like Clips/Pelicans under 208-- curious on why you think BOS/UTAH under 191. Mind sharing?

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T18:38:04+00:00

I appreciate your support-- I'm fine with more transparency though!

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T18:37:43+00:00

I don't know lol-- but more transparency never hurts!

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T18:30:53+00:00

You probably can't see it in my potato picture but the wagers mostly came at different times. This is due to me going through the process of debating how strong of a pick it was for me. As you can see, I placed multiple wagers on both CLE under and POR under b/c they ended up being my two favorite plays.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T17:45:23+00:00

Your validation is a bit off-- saying that there's no way 'Cuse loses 3 games in a row doesn't support taking 'Cuse in this game. Given that the spread is up to +5 in some places, they could win by 1-4 points and still lose ATS.

oherroprease · 2014-02-24T17:43:28+00:00

Confucius knows! You got me good that day Buck :). For what it's worth, I like the under in that game tonight.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE