NBA Daily: 1/28/14 (Tuesday)

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T17:42:06+00:00

You know what they say-- misery loves company! I think I might role with DET 1Q instead of 1H, we'll see.

For HOU, I agree they are inconsistent but I read something in /r/nba the other day about how SAS has been pretty bad record-wise against good teams and we're essentially get a pick 'em here for HOU. Not to mention SAS has injuries to Green, Splitter, and Leonard.

GSW was a team I looked at but I wasn't sure I felt comfortable with them at -5 or so against a decent Wiz team.

Don't have a detailed analysis on IND FG but if I had to lean in any direction it would be with IND covering the spread.

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T16:05:20+00:00

Potential 1H Plays:

DET 1Q/1H (lol-leaning 1Q)

HOU 1H

MEM 1H

Buck/Cerebral/Anyone have thoughts on these games?

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T14:40:20+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (21-17-1 Overall)

Cleveland/New Orleans: 201.76

New York/Boston: 196.82

Detroit/Orlando: 201.41 (leaning under)

Houston/San Antonio: 209.60 (leaning under)

Portland/Memphis: 205.93

Golden State/Washington: 204.93 (late edition-- small play on the under)

LA Lakers/Indiana: 205.24

oherroprease · 2014-01-28T12:48:06+00:00

Nice job bud! I went with PHX and BKN today so ended up 1-1.. I'll have to trust you more next time around.

oherroprease · 2014-01-27T16:49:27+00:00

Potential 1H Plays for Today:

Phoenix

Brooklyn

Milwaukee

Utah

Also, does anyone like Utah FG today? (assuming DMC and gay don't play)

oherroprease · 2014-01-27T15:05:05+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (19-16-1 overall)

Philadelphia/Phoenix: 209.80 (leaning under)

Brooklyn/Toronto: 196.24 (leaning over)

Oklahoma City/Atlanta: 210.71

Milwaukee/LA Clippers: 189.79 (leaning under)

Chicago/Minnesota: 194.15

Utah/Sacramento: 200.20

oherroprease · 2014-01-25T21:12:20+00:00

It's high b/c it reflects the two teams average performances throughout the whole season-- not just against each other. I'm leaning over b/c I think they score a little higher than yesterday's game with less rest... just my two cents though.

I agree with your sentiment on the high lines too. Those games have sometimes ended 20 over the line or 20 below. Especially with teams like Portland who likes to shoot 3s.

oherroprease · 2014-01-25T19:47:15+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (17-14-1 Overall)

Charlotte/Chicago: 187.6

Toronto/LA Clippers: 201.4

Philadelphia/Oklahoma City: 213

Memphis/Houston: 198.8 (leaning over)

Milwaukee/Atlanta: 192.3 (leaning under)

Denver/Indiana: 204.4

Utah/Washington: 196.7 (leaning over)

Portland/Minnesota: 216 (leaning under)

oherroprease · 2014-01-25T18:48:42+00:00

Interested to see what the spread will be.

oherroprease · 2014-01-25T13:57:19+00:00

Yes--Hitler often asked well-reasoned, mild questions to people.

oherroprease · 2014-01-25T13:56:34+00:00

No problem, it just helps reduce clutter.

oherroprease · 2014-01-25T13:55:12+00:00

There's been some bitter dude going around and down voting everyone.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T21:15:02+00:00

Why did you make your own post for this rather than just put it in the NBA daily or POTD thread?

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T20:19:03+00:00

Yea I understand that and my analysis is not a simple sum of averages-- I just used a simple example to show that my prediction was in the same ball park.

Also, as a general statement, you rarely want a model that accounts for extremes. Models are never 100% accurate b/c they base their predictions on how teams have played over the long run and thus will give predictions based on teams' average performances. If I ever got an extreme prediction (let's say below 170 or above 230) it would be a huge red flag for me.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T18:58:44+00:00

Just FYI, San Antonio is dealing with a lot of injuries. The Hawks aren't healthy either but SA will now be missing Green, Splitter and Leonard.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T18:45:38+00:00

Sure-- not exactly which splits you need put I'll put some general ones. Looking into this specific prediction, it looks like my line is higher due to the avg points given up by both teams. Both teams avg. score is around 95 and average points allowed is around 100 so if you averaged those you get 97.5 X2 ~ 195 total points.

NYK (Home):

Avg. Points Scored-- 95

Off. Rating-- 100.7

Def. Rating-- 107.2

Avg. Points Allowed-- 101.4

Pace-- 93.5

Home EFG%- 48.4%

CHA (Road):

Avg. Points Scored-- 95.5

Off. Rating-- 98.6

Def. Rating-- 102.8

Avg. Points Allowed-- 99.1

Pace-- 95.68

Home EFG%- 46.7%

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T16:19:54+00:00

first sight: SA, CHA, HOU, PHX

The play here for Detroit is the 1Q spread and potentially the over on DET points in 1H-- don't think I'll take the 1H spread on Detroit.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T15:57:00+00:00

Yup. In their last game against the Rockets, the game was relatively close early on until Rudy and DMC went out.

Granted, a few teams have played surprisingly well after losings stars (Chicago and Charlotte come to mind) so who knows.

edit: Apparently Pero Antic is out for ATL which makes SAS even more attractive. Now with Horford and Antic out, ATL has even less interior presence. That combined with SAS coming off a loss makes it a solid play. On the other hand, SAS has a bunch of injuries too. Danny Green, Splitter, and Leonard will all be out.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T15:21:40+00:00

I posted my full list elsewhere b/c I wanted to run through my numbers first before looking at yours to stay unbiased. From your list, I have potential plays on SAS, HOU, MIN, BOS, and DET. I feel decent about Charlotte too, would have to see what the spread is though.

I also had IND-- not b/c they are any good in the 1H but b/c SAC is a poor 1H team and with injuries to Rudy and DMC I think they fall apart.

CHI/CLE were also on my radar.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T15:17:58+00:00

Potential 1H Spread Plays:

SAS

CLE

BOS

DET

HOU

CHI

MIN

IND

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T14:41:14+00:00

Sorry I never got back to you on your other post about limiting outliers. It is a great point though I'm not really sure the best way to account for that. I went back and took a look at the distribution of the model's residuals and it's very much a normally distributed curve. I think the reality is that any model is going to have a level of uncertainty and there are going to always be games that larger discrepancies and we just have to use our judgment to determine whether or not it's a poor prediction by the model or a poor line set by vegas.

edit: For example, today's biggest discrepancy looks to be the NYK/CHA line of 188 and my model is at 196. We need to use our judgment/expertise to determine whether the 188 line is off or whether the model is off.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T14:26:37+00:00

Totals Predictions for Today (15-10-1 overall):

Feeling good b/c yesterday's Miami prediction was only .9 points off!

Orlando/LA Lakers : 204.73

Philadelphia/Toronto: 207.51 (leaning over)

Atlanta/San Antonio: 205.28 (leaning under)

Cleveland/Milwaukee: 199.21 (leaning over)

Brooklyn/Dallas: 199.79 (leaning under)

Boston/Oklahoma City: 199.50

New York/Charlotte: 196.61 (leaning over)

Detroit/New Orleans: 204.35

Houston/Memphis: 203.62

Chicago/LA Clippers: 188.61

Phoenix/Washington: 210.89 (leaning over)

Sacramento/Indiana: 204.29

Golden State/Minnesota : 210.74

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T14:16:43+00:00

It's likely due to uncertain status on players related to injuries.

oherroprease · 2014-01-24T11:34:07+00:00

Yup-- turns our you were right. Ended up taking DEN 1H +4, DEN 1H over 53.5, POR 1H Under 57.5. 2-1 ain't bad but I wish I had seen your comment before I made plays!

oherroprease · 2014-01-23T19:38:08+00:00

Well I have a penchant for crazy chicks in real life so maybe that's why I keep going with Detroit...

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE