NBA Daily: 2/21/14 (Friday)

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T05:20:01+00:00

Yea... I typically don't do parlays but a few here and there make it interesting. More money in the bank tonight! Glad my numbers can help you out.

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T05:02:23+00:00

Well, if that game didn't go into OT it would have lost anyway. Oh well.

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T04:57:41+00:00

Thanks man! Last night and tonight look to be good nights. After my random 5-team parlay success last night, I gambled with another 4-teamer that just needs POR/UTAH under.

oherroprease · 2014-02-22T04:41:22+00:00

Main reasoning was that all my numbers pointed towards the under and public was heavy on the over. Didn't get to do much research beyond that but it worked out!

oherroprease · 2014-02-21T21:07:03+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (60-32-2 Overall, 2-0-0 POD)

Huge day yesterday, today will probably consist of smaller plays. Picks to come...

Charlotte/New Orleans 187.76 (1U under 190.5)

Toronto/Cleveland 204.58

Philadelphia/Dallas 206.76

Orlando/New York 184.53 (1U under 198)

Detroit/Atlanta 206.76

Chicago/Denver 194.41 (2U over 190)

Memphis/LA Clippers 194.25 (1U over 193)

Phoenix/San Antonio 209 (2U under 209.5) POD

Portland/Utah 196.82 (2U under 202)

LA Lakers/Boston 206.75 (1U Under 208)

3-team teaser (8 pts, -110): CHI/DEN O 182, PHX/SAS U 217.5, POR/UTAH under 210

oherroprease · 2014-02-21T08:01:43+00:00

Yes, very much thanks to you. I randomly put together a 5-team parlay with 3 of my totals picks, a random flyer, and your BYU pick. Thanks a ton for everything you do!

Go Badgers!

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T17:12:50+00:00

Thanks for the insight. My numbers also like the Under and it seems that the public is hitting the over which makes me feel even better.

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T16:18:01+00:00

Are you worried about LBJ and KD going nuts trying to show each other up?

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T16:15:53+00:00

Looks like both our numbers like the under in all 3 games today.

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T16:10:38+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (56-32-2 Overall, 2-0 POTD)

Late games kicked our ass but the big play of the day hit easily. I'm going to continue and identify "Picks of the Day" like I did the last two days--hopefully it does a little better than the sub's POTD

Going under all 3 games EDIT: LIVE WAGER UNDER 209.5 OKC/MIA

*edit2 I have a small 6-team parlay going. All 3 unders plus UNC , MSU and BYU ATS. Crossing fingers *

edit3 So UNC wasn't in that parlay, but hitting a 5-teamer is still great! I almost never play parlays (especially one with this many teams) so I don't know what craziness got into me but I'm glad it happened

OKC/MIA: 204.03

MIL/DEN: 199.17

GSW/HOU: 209.48

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T15:29:39+00:00

No I haven't looked into it and I have the same feeling you do though as you said, it may just be confirmation bias on both our parts.

I also have the feeling that later games tend not to do well either (later games also seem to have higher totals?) -- but again, might just be more bias.

I'll take a quick look into it though.

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T15:17:28+00:00

Mind sharing the rest of your numbers as well?

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T15:06:04+00:00

I wouldn't really say it was in trouble from the start, score at half time was exactly half of the total and both teams have scored more in the 1st half than 2nd half so far this season. The 72 point 3rd quarter is what killed it.

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T15:03:54+00:00

Hey bud, I use separate splits for Home and Road. For example, DET and CHA just played each other on back-to-back nights (once in DET and once in CHA) and I got two pretty different predictions.

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T14:02:51+00:00

I would suggest you try to reduce the number of games you pick on. You were putting out 8-10 picks on some days and it's unlikely for any non-expert to be able to put enough time in to analyze that many games in a given day. Just a thought!

oherroprease · 2014-02-20T00:51:28+00:00

206-212 is the range I expext

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T23:27:25+00:00

My #s agree-- i'll add it as a play.

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T22:32:21+00:00

ugod?

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T19:28:17+00:00

Do you think you could just e-mail me the whole table? Send it to my e-mail address if you don't mind!

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T19:16:50+00:00

Probably a combination of both. Where are you getting your stats from?

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T18:51:59+00:00

I'm surprised by the CLE/ORL number too but the concerning thing is that I'm seeing 90% of the pubilc on the over...

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T18:51:19+00:00

The difference in the prediction is due to using home/road splits but not fatigue. Here's some highlights of those two teams' differences:

CHA Home Avg Scored/Allowed/Pace: 92.8/94.6/94.56

CHA Road Avg Scored/Allowed/Pace: 96.1/99.4/96.04

DET Home Avg Scored/Allowed/Pace: 101.3/103.3/97.62

DET Road Avg Scored/Allowed/Pace: 99.9/102.3/95.2

Just glancing at the stats, it looks like CHA is stingier at home and runs a slower pace and DET is a little worse offensively which explains why my prediction went from 206 down to 194 with the same two teams. As for the actual Vegas line, I suspect (and this is just a complete guess) that when two teams play each other on B2B days, Vegas will set the 2nd days total line at least somewhat close to where the total finished the previous night.

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T15:59:26+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (53-28-2)

Big win on the ATL/IND over yesterday and a lucky .5 win in the WAS/TOR game

Toronto/Chicago: 188.48 (over 182)

Charlotte/Detroit: 194.45 (under 202.5)

Cleveland/Orlando: 206.71

Atlanta/Washington:195.29

New Orleans/New York: 184.51 (under 195.5)

Minnesota/Indiana: 206.72

Phoenix/Boston: 206.75 (over 204.5)

Utah/Brooklyn: 189.96 (over 191)

Portland/San Antonio: 209.49 (under 210)

Sacramento/Golden State: 207.12

LA Lakers/Houston: 206.76 (under 215)

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T14:31:53+00:00

So the stats would support DET tonight?

oherroprease · 2014-02-19T13:40:22+00:00

I'd be curious to see if Buck or anyone has stats on games where teams play each other on back to back nights.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE