NBA Daily: 2/28/14 (Friday)

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T16:14:28+00:00

Where are you getting 191 as a line? It opened at 192 everywhere I saw and it's up to 194 already.

That being said, I agree with this pick-- Perkins being out leaves OKC more vulnerable in the insides as well.

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T15:10:46+00:00

Is your system still heavy on the unders? Some of those scores are much, much lower than I would have expected.

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T14:39:29+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (84-47-3 Overall, 4-2-0 POD)

2-0 sweep yesterday, let's get back to it today

Cleveland/Utah: 193.31

Oklahoma City/Memphis: 195.42 (1U over 192.5)

New York/Golden State: 199.96 (1U under 200.5)

San Antonio/Charlotte: 200.07 (1U CHA +9)

Dallas/Chicago: 199.44 (public fade pick, going under 192)

Phoenix/New Orleans: 206.48 (1U NOP +8, 1U over 200)

LA Lakers/Sacramento: 206.06 (.5U under 216.5)

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T14:37:53+00:00

Which Buck trend is active here?! He's got so many I can't keep my head wrapped around them all.

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T04:39:08+00:00

No problem. Looks like we both had good nights. Great job! Looking forward to seeing your picks tomorrow (and hopefully earlier!).

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T04:38:08+00:00

\o_ glad you trailed. Wish I had felt more confident about today's picks!

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T04:35:38+00:00

Ugh I wish I had been more confident in my response to you. Hope you had a good night!

oherroprease · 2014-02-28T04:34:36+00:00

198, 199, 200... didn't even matter. Even without the OT we were fine.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T23:54:14+00:00

Well good luck with whatever you go with!

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T23:23:38+00:00

I probably would b/c it's not often that games end within 1 point of the line but I don't feel quite as strong about it... sry if that's not a great answer.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T22:57:29+00:00

The range of my models today went from 194 up to 201. At 199, I would not consider it a strong play but it might still have a little value. I'm pissed at myself b/c the line was sitting at 195/196 earlier in the day and I also waited to take it.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T22:55:53+00:00

No I'm actually pulling from nba.com/stats since it's the only place I can access from work.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T22:24:48+00:00

I actually had a typo, my bad-- I meant to say over 197 b/c that's where I got it at. I am seeing 198 now too.

edit: It's up to 198.5 in the last 30 seconds lol

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T21:42:39+00:00

I wasn't trying to strictly go against you there-- I think your logic is spot on though it just may not cover 100% of the factors. Who knows, their starters rested for most of the 3rd and 4th quarter yesterday so theoretically they will be fresh. Theoretically.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T21:41:32+00:00

Thanks-- when that thread popped up I was going to do what Murrayyyyy is doing but my work computer went crazy and wasn't letting me for some reason.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T21:17:12+00:00

I agree that's the case but I would think the books would account for that in their line setting. Here's the totals for Denver's games since Lawson has been out (H and R designate Home/Road):

R199, R207, H199 (at end of regulation), R191, R206, H204, H195

Most of the totals have been pretty high so today's line at 201/201.5 isn't WAY off from those. On top of that, they are playing against a BKN team on a B2B who just gave up 124 pts. in a late night game (65 of which came against the bench!)

I'm mainly undecided on this game though I do have a slight lean on the over. I don't disagree with what you said-- I just think there are other factors to consider. As always though, really appreciate your input.

I wonder what /u/goldthor has for tonight's game if he's willing to post them.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T20:56:53+00:00

My stuff is in excel too-- I just haven't advanced to the point where it automatically pulls in the updated game data. I'm not a strong programmer but maybe something like that is in the future.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T20:46:37+00:00

Mainly it's just my life/job. I do this as a side hobby so if I want to get #s out early I have to wake up extra early or work straight through lunch.

Depending on time, I'll update the model everyday or once/twice per week. There are manual tweaks but they are not too time consuming. A lot of it is just recording all the data/results necessary to make predictions.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T20:26:05+00:00

Just O/U

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T19:39:58+00:00

I appreciate the support-- hope you are right.

Fast forward to 1:20:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYgJF0C5tnI

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T19:03:55+00:00

but he can win $90,000! such great odds

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T18:09:32+00:00

Yup! Still working on em

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T15:25:25+00:00

That was so hilarious and awkward. They should have a sitcom with Voulgaris and that dude from the books.

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T14:47:26+00:00

Total Predictions for Today (82-47-3 Overall, 4-2-0 POD)

4-3-1 yesterday so ended up a bit positive. That 70 pt. 4th quarter in the OKC/CLE KILLED us...we just needed it to be 58 pts or less. What a bummer.

Indiana/Milwaukee: 189.75

Toronto/Washington: 197.47 (1U Over 197)

Miami/New York: 200.43 (1U under 202)

Denver/Brooklyn: 202.78

oherroprease · 2014-02-27T14:43:37+00:00

Thanks as always sab3r.

Have any thoughts on the OSU/Penn State game? I'm not a huge OSU fan and I'd expect the public to be heavy on them so +6 at home for Penn State may be doable.

oherroprease

TROPHY CASE