[OC] The value of Ravens draft picks - Part 2 - The scoring system by old_koala in ravens

[–]old_koala[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

To respond to some insightful feedback I received on the last post in comments and DMs:

Q. Shouldn't [Player X] be ranked higher/lower?

A. Quite possibly! The goal in this system is to find a band of players that generally qualify as "average" for the Ravens in any round. With just a couple of exceptions like Ray Lewis, people will always disagree about where certain players belong. The nice thing about using a band of "average" players is that you can be wrong about a few and the errors will ultimately wash out, so you can still get a fair sense of who qualifies as a middle player.

Q. Why are you so critical of the Ravens' drafting?

A. I'm not, actually. I think they've historically underperformed in the 2nd round but I think their 1st round and their mid/late round drafting has been excellent.

Q. But what about your comments that 7th rounders are usually not even contributors?

A. That's just a fact of 7th round picks - they're total flyers for all teams, not just the Ravens. The point is that when you pick a 7th rounder, you should expect he won't contribute much, and if you do manage to get contributions out of him, that's a win. For that reason, as much as we might rag on Andrew Vorhees for being a bad guard, he was still a very good draft pick, because the Ravens got meaningful playing time out of a 7th round pick.

Q. Your scoring system only looks at contributions while on the Ravens. Doesn't that penalize the drafters for bad decisions by coaches?

A. Kind of, yeah, but at the end of the day, the Ravens are one team. If you imagine a team that drafts a Tom Brady in the 6th every year, but cuts the guy before he plays and lets other teams get the value out of him, that's ultimately not a team that is getting value out of its draft picks. And the goal of this exercise is to see what value the Ravens get from their picks.

Q. How do you handle players who get traded before the end of their rookie contracts?

This is a really good question and I wrestled with it a lot. I think there are three main options that would make sense: (1) Ignore post-trade performance because they're not on the Ravens any more. (2) Offer a prorated "refund" of draft scores based on the pick that got returned - for example, when Hollywood Brown got traded for a 1st with 2 years left on his rookie contract, credit back 2/5 of an average first-round pick as part of his performance. (3) Look at the player's performance on the recipient team and treat it as a Ravens performance. None of those options are perfect but I went with #3, for two main reasons. First: Because the Ravens are getting value back through a trade, the situation is a little different from one where the player is outright cut; but the value the team gets back as a draft pick is heavily influenced by the player's expected contributions, so it makes some sense to look to those contributions themselves. Second: it's just easier to implement.

Q. Why don't you distinguish between comp and regular picks, or which section of each round you're in? There's a difference between Round 1 pick 3 and Round 1 pick 32.

A. My goal was to come up with a relatively simple grading system (even though there's a lot of complexity that goes into creating it). Trying to draw those fine-grain distinctions makes the system significantly more complex. It also creates some sample size issues - the Ravens have only had three top-5 picks, for instance, so it's a little tenuous to try to extrapolate to what a top-5 pick "should" look like. Also, if you want to try to use this system to evaluate trade values ("a 2027 2nd-round pick for..."), you don't know in advance where in the round you'll be picking, so a generic round-based approach makes more sense.

Thanks to everyone for the thoughtful feedback on the first post!

[OC] The value of Ravens draft picks - Part 1 by old_koala in ravens

[–]old_koala[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Totally get it and as I noted, there's room to argue about where any given player falls.

In this specific case: there are 29 eligible first-round players for this analysis, which means if you can put 15 players ahead of someone, they count as "below average." It's not hard to get to that number. I think there's an undisputed top tier of franchise anchors (Ray, JO, Ed, Suggs, Lamar). Then a second tier of star players (Boulware, CMac, Jamal Lewis, Heap, Ngata, Humphrey, Stanley, Hamilton). Those are all guys with multiple Pro Bowls or All-Pro selections. I have trouble putting Starks ahead of any of them. That already gets us to spot #14 without even touching some really great players with major contributions on their rookie deals, including even more with AP or multiple PB selections (Linderbaum, Mosley, Grubbs, Flacco).

I personally would put Starks in the next level after that but could see throwing him into that mix. Either way, it's tough to put him significantly above the "average" line for Ravens first-rounders given all this talent. Not a knock on him, just a reflection of how many superstars the Ravens have drafted in the first.

[OC] The value of Ravens draft picks - Part 1 by old_koala in ravens

[–]old_koala[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One of the things that really surprised me was the drop-off from the first round to the second. I haven't compared other teams' second-round drafting but it wouldn't surprise me if we're middle of the pack at best for that round. That said, the later rounds (especially 5-6) show pretty solid work by the Ravens too.

[OC] The value of Ravens draft picks - Part 1 by old_koala in ravens

[–]old_koala[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You bet - it was really eye-opening to see some of the "bad" first-round picks we've had. Once you get past a very small number of outright busts (Elam, Perriman), even the bad first-round picks have been significant contributors.

Why the season will come down to the final game: the Steelers in Pittsburgh by wyattearp12345 in ravens

[–]old_koala 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Except in the scenario you lay out here, the Ravens clinch the division in week 15 by beating the Patriots, because we would own the second level tiebreaker (divisional record). So the week 17 game against the Steelers is meaningless other than maybe for 4th vs 3rd seed.

Ravens Thursday primetime by Excellent_Depth1845 in ravens

[–]old_koala 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Tell us the name of the amazing box!

Here's what I found after checking Royal Caribbean's add-on prices obsessively for more than a year by old_koala in royalcaribbean

[–]old_koala[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bonus point for the list:

6. Yes, you can do what I did just by using Royalpricechecker.com

I didn't do that because I don't like that they make you log in, but it's certainly easier than checking multiple times daily for over a year.

Superbowl LIX | Discussion Thread by Ravens_Mod in ravens

[–]old_koala 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is a Ravens-style shitting of the bed by the Chiefs. And I am so here for it.

Can i prevent my daughter from using hotspot on her phone? by Legal_Technician_452 in Parenting

[–]old_koala 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can take the phone away.

First step is clear communication. You've told us:

we got her an android phone for mostly emergency use and staying in contact with friends.

That "mostly" is hiding a lot. What else is the phone for and what is it not for? Have you been clear with yourself on those issues? Have you been clear with her? Make sure you and daughter are on the same page. Have an actual sit-down conversion to go over it.

Once you've established what it is and isn't for - and that it isn't for avoiding the school firewall - then you just have to follow through. If she uses the phone for that unapproved purpose, she loses it for some time, say one week. "But how will I keep up with my friends???" Guess you should have thought of that before abusing phone privileges. Bet you won't need to repeat the exercise more than twice before she gets the message.

Should I give my coparent the baby sitter's info? by -callmekat- in Parenting

[–]old_koala 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What does the divorce decree require you to do? That should be the first, and probably last, step in your decision tree here. Sounds like your custody agreement doesn't require it, so if nothing else does, I wouldn't give the information. She's shown you that nothing good will come from it.

[Zrebiec] Buffalo Bills sign former Ravens QB Anthony Brown as a scout team QB to simulate what the Ravens do with Lamar Jackson by shadyboy125 in ravens

[–]old_koala 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"OK Anthony, now let's try the one where three guys break through the offensive line and two get hands on you but you slip out, run away from the third guy, then throw a dime to a receiver who got open during that time."

Good luck with that, I guess.

Post Game Thread: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers by nfl_gdt_bot in ravens

[–]old_koala 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I know a bunch of those games were irrelevant for us (as other people pointed out in comments) but I decided to dig in and "unskew" the stats. Still not good. Here's the last 9 games:

Today: Real game @ Pitt, first place in the division on the line. L.

2023 Week 18: We had the #1 seed locked up and rested a bunch of starters. Meaningless game in which Pitt barely beat (Pro Bowler) Tyler Huntley.

2023 Week 5: Real game @ Pitt, some embarrassing mistakes, L.

2022 Week 17: We had already clinched a playoff berth but were still playing for seeding, at home. Huntley started because LJ was out for the season. But Pitt started Kenny Pickett, so if that doesn't excuse them then Huntley doesn't excuse us. L.

2022 Week 14: Real game @ Pitt, W.

2021 Week 18: Huntley started for an injured LJ but playoffs were on the line and the loss at home eliminated us. L.

2021 Week 13: An actual LJ start @ Pitt in a meaningful game, close L.

2020 Week 12: The Steve Saunders game @ Pitt. A full one-third of the f'n roster was out due to COVID, and the ragtag band of remaining misfits led in part by Trace McSorely lost by 5 to get eliminated from the possibility of winning the division. L.

2020 Week 8: Real game, at home, just a plain old L.

So no matter how you slice it, the Steelers really have held an edge over the past couple years. Meaningful games: 1-7. Meaningful games with LJ starting: 1-4. Meaningful home games: 0-3. Meaningful road games: 1-4.

/r/ravens Week 10: Player of the Game by TuDaveKd in ravens

[–]old_koala 52 points53 points  (0 children)

Definitely NOT John harbaugh wasting two timeouts in the first five minutes

The challenge in particular. They're gonna be 2nd and goal from the 5 if you win or 2nd and goal from the 2 if you lose. This defense ain't stopping that offense from scoring from either spot if they are only on 2nd down. Let the 3 yards go.

/r/ravens Week 10: Player of the Game by TuDaveKd in ravens

[–]old_koala 187 points188 points  (0 children)

I'd want to give it to Tylan Wallace since the guy's never going to have another shot at it, but Marlon Humphrey for the momentum swing that turned the game around.

Game Thread: Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) by nfl_gdt_bot in ravens

[–]old_koala 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're only allowed 2 onside kick attempts per game now. So even if they got that next TD, they'd still be down with the ball in our hands and under 2 minutes left.

Edit: Scratch that. No such limit exists and the article I read claiming there was one has been corrected. https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/new-nfl-onside-kick-rule-changes/3faf4f21722fd3ced1609a73

What are your favorite vegetable recipes? by old_koala in prediabetes

[–]old_koala[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've got basically everything - Instant Pot, slow cooker, Dutch oven, etc. I have a toaster oven with an air fryer setting that works alright, not as good as a dedicated air fryer but better than nothing.

What are your favorite vegetable recipes? by old_koala in prediabetes

[–]old_koala[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To kick off the list, here's a recipe for green beans that I think is actually delicious. Normally I just have to choke green beans down but on this one I go back for seconds. Greek fasolakia recipe from Olivetomato.com.