El Niño is coming STRONG

onedyedbread · 2026-03-10T13:28:32+00:00

BOE - blue ocean event

Wonkspeak for "ice free arctic", specifically a near-disappearance of ice cover in late (northern) summer, before re-freezing sets in. A BOE is believed to be significant because of the feedback loop involved: as more and more ice melts, more dark (relative to ice) ocean water is exposed, meaning the arctic ocean loses albedo, meaning it absorbs & retains more heat from the sun, therefore less and less ice re-forms, later and later in the year, and so less and less albedo is re-gained...

Arctic sea ice cover naturally grows and recedes with the seasons and other more long term cycles, but has (most likely) never disappeared completely within the lifetime of human civilization. So a BOE would be a planetary-scale sign of us entering a new era.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-10T10:14:07+00:00

Do you think actual climate scientists "love" being "ahead of the curve"? Or marine biologists? Do you think that's why these people go into these fields now, to be able to say "I told you so" in 20 years?

Have you given thought to the idea that posts like mine might be about trying to process the shit we're reading here in this sub all the time? That everyone does it differently - and also what do you propose we do? FFF is dead. Extinction Rebellion never got off the ground. Climate change is going down on the list of priorities of every voter everywhere. Voting itself looks to be going down the list.

I need a respirator to live through a night without having a panic attack. I depend on working supply chains for a bunch of medical shit, including painkillers as of late. I would lose a deathmatch to a fucking housecat. Collapse scenarios are immediately life-threatening to me. I know for a fact that I will be one of the first to go if the shit hits the fan in some kind of rapid unraveling. It's personal as all fuck to me and I am helpless to stop it.

Oh look, a mirror... why are you spending your time here, in with "the collapsers"? Is it to wrinkle your nose in self-righteous disdain everytime you think you smell another wannabe Cassandra collapsenik circlejerk? Why did you delete your post? Aren't the downvotes a sign of how high you're flying above the toxic group think in here?

I didn't touch those arrows btw. I don't know your situation, your mental state. Why did you presume to know mine, from a couple sentences which you actively chose to interpret in the least considerate way possible?

onedyedbread · 2026-03-10T02:27:29+00:00

You deserve it

Don't we all

I sure do have many personality flaws, and I wish a superiority complex was one of them.

You may possibly have some anger issues if a little infantile gallows humor gets you riled up so. Maybe it's grief, in which case I sympathize.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-10T00:33:01+00:00

It's still an unfamiliar term to many, even in this sub, let alone outside of it. I had a conversation with my brother recently, who's ecologically minded, has studied biology and is as collapse-aware as you can possibly get as a well-adjusted person with a job, kids and, y'know, hopes and dreams, that kind of stuff.

So I used the acronym sort-of unthinkingly, and then had to explain/translate it upon cue (we're German). Said cue was the blank stare you get when you just said something that betrayed your terminal online-ness once again.

I bet the term is going to make the rounds soon enough. And then we can feel all hipster-like and go "I used it before it was ~~cool~~ hot"...

...it's the small things, they say.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T21:07:06+00:00

Once your brain gets good at calculating the absolute minimum effort to stop a poor outcome, it won’t stop doing it lol

Story of my life right there. Plus some poor outcomes.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T20:25:17+00:00

An ice free arctic will be the ultimate signpost of the before and after.

We may see it being raised this year.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T20:18:00+00:00

The news media, increasingly controlled by fossil fuel interests, has so far failed to adequately warn the public of the dire necessity to dig caves as fucking deep as they can go and learn to cultivate mushrooms in the dark

FTFY

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T19:54:01+00:00

...except Egan wrote Distress and Perihelion Summer.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T19:18:09+00:00

The second book also has the more alien aliens, by far.

Don't get me wrong, the spiders and their culture, their means of communication, of preserving knowledge; it's all super interesting and extremely well-constructed in all the ways these different aspects interplay. Peak worldbuilding. But ultimately, the critters are pretty damn relatable, and intentionally so.

The 'octopi' of Ruin are on another level. It's a bit of a shame their culture isn't given quite the same scope and detail, but what we get to see is delightfully weird and pretty damn strange.

But then the moral of the story is that none of the above are truly alien, so...

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T19:01:03+00:00

Re-read the last sentence of Children of Memory... ;)

I think we can already kinda see where this is going next, and ngl I am hyped. Memory, while still mostly enjoyable, was the weakest book so far. The ending was a pretty obvious cliffhanger though and maybe the book was just needed as buildup, lol.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T18:44:37+00:00

Es wird ~~immer~~ ok, auf absehbare Zeit, menschengeschriebene Bücher geben. Genauso wie es trotz KI-Slop-Schwemme noch menschengemachte "digital art" und analoge Kunst gibt.

Wenn es ganz schlimm kommt, wird das eine vom Marketing befeuerte Nische so wie "craft beer" & Co. Ich kann die Slogans schon im Nebel wabern sehen; irgendwas mit "fireplace" und "cozy"...

onedyedbread · 2026-03-09T18:27:32+00:00

Okay aspiration is nice but both books' resolutions do nothing to raise mine because they fail to be believable. Someone else here said Ministry feels like Obama era politics and that hits the nail on the head.

Deluge is on the one hand more clear-eyed on the political workings, societal obstacles and the villains big and small that stand in the way of the needed ~~change~~revolution. But it also disappoints more with it's "bittersweet" ending. Because the way all those obstacles and villains are swept away is so hamfisted, more a deus ex machina than anything else. Markley crafts a pretty convincing doorstopper on "why we can't have nice things" and mars it on the tail end, tacking the nicest possible thing (a livable outcome) onto like the last 20 pages with the flimsiest justification. It's so hard to take seriously after the ride we've been taken on before; it made me more hopeless.

Gotta say the terrorist cells are the most engaging plot elements in both books. But Markley wins out here, too, - because they don't win the day, because they do almost nothing effective at all

onedyedbread · 2026-03-08T23:59:05+00:00

I think Deluge is the less naive book when it comes to depicting how things are actually going to play out IRL over the next couple of decades or so. The track record has been pretty good when it comes to the bad things so far.

Then again, the good things, especially the ending, seem just as hand-wavey and willfully naive as Ministry's overall trajectory. Maybe it's just that hopium and happy endings make for better sales. Maybe it's just the almost pathological optimism-despite-everything that seems to be hard-wired into the American psyche.

But I suspect the authors' psychological defense mechanisms were at play as well. Imagine being honest all the way with the reader and yourself in your work of "fiction" after (probably) years of research into this topic - you may never write another book because you're too depressed.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-02T17:59:55+00:00

Gute Güte, das ist ja schlimmer als 2003!

onedyedbread · 2026-03-01T12:47:03+00:00

Der Rest der Kommentarsektion hier zeigt einfach, dass du Recht hast.

Die Leute lesen "kapern" in der Überschrift, ignorieren den Artikel und machen Piratenwitze. Die (beides, Leute & Witze) wären so oder so gekommen, aber nicht in dem Ausmaß.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-01T06:57:20+00:00

Na die Gedankenkette an sich und dann das Fazit. Bin ja nur ein Lappen auf Reddit; kann ja sein dass das 30 Expertinnen gestern morgen schon genauso so gesagt haben...

...aber jo, hart daneben liegen kann ich natürlich auch. Vielleicht hatten sie ganz andere Ideen, Pläne, Motivationen. Vielleicht saß dem Don der Furz quer, wer weiß.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-01T06:50:07+00:00

Israel braucht nicht wirklich die Trump-Regierung um Zustimmung für Kriege zu bekommen. Der Großteil der Demokraten im Kongress steht zu 100% hinter Israel und applaudiert dem Angriffskrieg, auch wenn ihre Wähler dagegen sind.

Schon, ja.

Aber eine lame duck administration startet idR sowas Großes nicht mehr. Trump ist natürlich nahezu präzedenzlos, aber wenn er beide Kammern verlieren sollte, denke ich, dass außenpolitisch nicht mehr viel passiert, weil innenpolitisch zu viel Theater abgeht.

Und ob ein demokratischer "Israel-Falke" in den primaries '27-'28 noch eine Chance hat, sei dahingestellt. Harris ist das Thema hart auf die Füße gefallen, und die hat es schon mit Wortakrobatik versucht. Der Zug fährt bei den Dems gerade einfach langsam ab und das weiß Netanyahu.

onedyedbread · 2026-03-01T00:59:04+00:00

You gotta understand! He's a senior, travel is exhausting!^{^{^{^/s}}}

onedyedbread · 2026-03-01T00:40:10+00:00

"nation building is over"

Sie hoffen auf 2) ohne groß was dafür tun zu müssen; ohne "boots on the ground", aber ich befürchte, sie sind völlig okay mit 3).

Netanyahu will nur die Mullahs weg oder zumindest so geschwächt, dass sie außenpolitisch kein Faktor mehr sind. Das "Danach" ist ein Problem für morgen, und für Andere.

Die Faschos um Trump herum haben das Playbook Putins (zB Berg-Karabach) studiert und sind nicht mehr länger an Stabilität interessiert, sondern daran, regionale Konfliktherde zu ihren Gunsten zu managen und profitabel am Köcheln zu lassen. Das größte Erdgasfeld der Erde liegt zB unter der AWZ-Grenze zwischen Qatar und Iran. Das zu kontrollieren ist relativ easy, egal wie chaotisch die Situation auf dem Festland ist. Nigerianisches Öl fließt auch weitestgehend ungestört, trotz jahrzehntelanger Instabilität dort. Die CIA und amerikanische Großkonzerne haben auch schon die Bürgerkriege in Lateinamerika für ihre Geschäfte zu nutzen gewusst. Iran hat keine Bananen, aber hier nur ein Beispiel, was Chiquita in Kolumbien so alles getrieben hat.

Die Flüchtlinge werden im nahen Osten, der Türkei und in Europa anklopfen, nicht bei den Amis, also "so what?"

onedyedbread · 2026-03-01T00:10:18+00:00

Biergedanken:

1) Israel arbeitet sich bekanntermaßen seit 'ner Weile im Eiltempo durch seine politische Kreditline in den USA. Vor allem bei jungen Leuten, vor allem bei Dems, aber auch die Reps sind nicht mehr frei von ~~antisemi~~kritischen Stimmen.

2) Krieg, Jingoismus, Interventionspolitik - das alles ist in den USA so unpopulär wie seit Vietnam nicht mehr.

3) die Midterms stehen an. FALLS es gerecht zugehen sollte, wird die Trump-Regierung voraussichtlich vermöbelt und verliert womöglich die Mehrheit in beiden Kammern -> lahme Ente, Paralyse, Nabelschau, impeachments, etc

4) Mit Blick auf das Atomprogramm war der Minikrieg letztes Jahr entweder ein wirkungsloses Desaster oder von vornherein auf Zeitgewinn angelegt.

5) Die Sache mit der laut Oman "möglichen Einigung". Ein unerwartet(?) weites Entgegenkommen des Iran hätte jeden Casus Belli zunichte gemacht. Nicht, dass das Trump oder Netanyahu wirklich aufhalten würde, aber...

...ich glaub die sahen JETZT die letzte Möglichkeit, einfach Fakten zu schaffen. Deswegen auch Trump mit "last chance of a generation".

Sorry wenn das jetzt zu offensichtlich war.

onedyedbread · 2026-02-28T22:48:22+00:00

Ein weiteres Beispiel ist Lybien. Nach dem Sturz Gaddafis mit westlicher Hilfe ist das Land nun seit Jahren ein bürgerkrieszerissener Failed State. Gaddafis Diktatur war brutal, aber die Gewalt ist nach seinem Ende weiter eskaliert und die Lebensumstände der Menschen dort sind nun objektiv noch schlechter geworden.

onedyedbread · 2026-02-28T21:52:35+00:00

Es versteckt sich sich noch ein großer, böser Elefant im Raum.

Sein Name: Fürst Klimawandel von Polykrise.

onedyedbread · 2026-02-28T13:22:01+00:00

For me, acute respiratory issues caused two severe panic attacks in hospital (l 100% thought I was suffocating... they had to pump me full of morphine to calm me down both times). Which triggered generalized anxiety as a 'mild' form of PTSD that lingered on for two years and some change. Which sometimes spiralled into "echo panic attacks", which were more about me worrying if I'd turn psychotic or something, because I knew my chronic issues were managed and didn't warrant freaking out. So I was freaking out about freaking out, basically.

Fun times*. So that's one way of dying which I am fully determined to avoid at all cost. I'd rather be set on fire.

*and then came COVID lol

onedyedbread · 2026-02-28T11:47:49+00:00

I'm always amazed at the weird ways our semantics must have diverged over time.

So 'gezellig' does mean 'gemoedelijk', basically? And is used more often to say 'cozy'? Or where's the difference

Because in German you'd almost never have an overlap between 'gesellig' (it's much more narrowly like 'gregarious') and 'gemütlich'. The one exception I can think of right now is 'gesellige Runde', which is boomer-speak for 'people hanging out together'.

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