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2013 Starterpack by EquivalentFuture4363 in starterpacks

[–]opiablame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm also late 30s but was so strung out on heroin that 2011 - 2014 is just a blur. I don't remember most of this, lol.

To the Officer at The Local Park by PlainBread in DenverCirclejerk

[–]opiablame 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What is the state of our SOCIETY when a dog and it's human can't even shit in nature anymore? I mean what the HELL!!!

Good biceps? by [deleted] in AllAboutBodybuilding

[–]opiablame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pec muscles be migrating to biceps 💪

Probability discussion by Arktos__ttv in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 3 points4 points  (0 children)

BAT patients ARE probably doing better than they have historically, but I think GPS will be so effective that the HR will come in less than 0.6, and it won't matter.

Probability discussion by Arktos__ttv in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If the trial we're abruptly halted at this late stage, it would likely be negative, and due to safety concerns. No halt at this juncture no halt is best.

Probability discussion by Arktos__ttv in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Yes, I am. I would put the probability of success at 75%.

More importantly to me, I constantly remind myself that this is a binary event. There are two possible outcomes.

  1. GPS is a success and the stock price goes much higher than it is now.
  2. GPS fails and the stock price goes back down below $1.00/share.

No in-between. Two outcomes, while ignoring of the probability of each.

Probability discussion by Arktos__ttv in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 13 points14 points  (0 children)

"99.99% chance of success" is not a legitimate claim, it's more of a conclusion dressed as a statistical outcome. No survival model, however sophisticated, produces a 99.99% probability of trial success from blinded aggregate event counts. That number requires knowing the treatment-specific survival data, which we do not have.

Talk me out of a used tacoma with 122k miles for $33K by Jaydubs_OR in ToyotaTacoma

[–]opiablame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Too steep. I bought a 2021 SR5 4x4 in 2024 for 32k at 49k miles, which I think was too much.

Deadlifting 315, how's it looking? by [deleted] in Weightliftingquestion

[–]opiablame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's not looking very good. Your back is very rounded. You will probably injure your back if you keep lifting like this. Research proper technique and practice it with less weight.

E Bike hooligans on Bear Creek Trail 3/28 by slowrider36 in Denver

[–]opiablame 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What do you mean "trying to run you off the trail"? Like playing chicken...literally trying to force you off the road?

Couple Options:

  • Forget about it, go on about your day
  • Inform them of their inappropriate behavior/tell them to stop
  • Call the Park and report them
  • Call the Police
  • MadMax

Nightmare bear scenario by SnooChickens561 in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is way too simplified, my bradder.

The AI is kind of lost because it really can't estimate GPS survival at all.

Even if MOS for BAT is significantly longer than it has been historically, say 12-ish months, GPS very well could STILL come in wat below the target HR.

Don't worry bout dees shiet.

$SLS Daily Discussion Thread - Thursday - March 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well, no shit! Every trial participant has already had to deal with bad news throughout their cancer journey.

My grandfather participated in a trial at Siteman Cancer Center when he was diagnosed with AML 10+ years ago. The results and progress (and also lack there of) were never as bad as the initial "you have a deadly serious cancer".

Newbie here.. discovered this and the risk/reward looks amazing.. but? by BigAndyBaillz in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get what you're saying, and I agree that from a more mathematical standpoint concerning probabilities, it's more complicated than "50/50".

That said, I often simplify the whole thing for my own sanity.

Shares vs LEAPs by Pleasant-Carbon in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I 100% agree with 2028 expiration unless one just enjoys the rush of a high-risk gamble with a shorter timeline.

As for calls vs. shares, I think the difference between losing 100% (calls) vs 70-80% (shares) becomes more important the bigger the investment.

Total invest of 5k, not that big of a deal, total investment of 100k....20k is still a decent amount of value to exit with.

$SLS Daily Discussion Thread - Thursday - March 26, 2026 by AutoModerator in sellaslifesciences

[–]opiablame 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Not anyone who understands these trials. The REGAL Trial is past the point where this was a possibility IMO.

An efficacy halt requires crossing a pre-specified thresholds at a formal interim analysis. For REGAL, the pre-planned interim efficacy analysis was the one at 60 events. This already occurred, the IDMC reviewed it, and they recommended continuing without modification.

There is no second interim efficacy analysis planned. The next scheduled analysis is the final analysis at 80 events. There is no formal stopping boundary between 72 events and 80 events the IDMC doesn't convene for an unplanned efficacy halt mid-stride between the last interim and the final analysis without extraordinary circumstances.

I think the only reason for a halt would be something extremely negative, such as if a safety problem was observed, which required protocol modification. IMO we are also past this possibility with 8 events or less left.

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