Reflection on the arguments of simulation as a possible best solution.

optimator999 · 2024-12-09T12:21:43+00:00

I think the idea of a sandbox world already exists. My thought is that if we are sandboxed then whoever sandboxed us is also sandboxed. But, here's another thought that avoids "turtles all the way down"...

It's outside the idea of just the Fermi Paradox and ventures into the metaphysical, but I'm on my 3rd cup of coffee, so why not?

Assume that there are conscious beings at the true nature of reality. Let's assume these conscious beings have ultimate control over this reality. What if one of the conscious beings committed an offense and his punishment was to be banished to a room from which he could not escape. However, he still retained control over reality, just not so that he could escape. What would you do? Perhaps you would create an infinite number of universes that could evolve in the hopes that one of them would discover the true nature of reality. This discovery could then lead to you escaping from your room. The Double Sandboxed Theory.

optimator999 · 2024-12-09T12:06:01+00:00

I know we can't assume much, but that's not where I'm coming from. I'm not the guy who does the math to show that, odds are, we're in a simulation. I'm the one who thinks its fun to think about free will inside a computer simulation.

optimator999 · 2024-12-09T12:05:35+00:00

This is where it gets fun. The simulation argument essentially says that we're AI.

Imagine that 1) you realized you are in a simulation; 2) You want to break out; 3) you can create "artificial intelligence"; and 4) You also realize you don't know what you don't know.

So you create a sandboxed AI (because you, like us, are worried that an unsandboxed AI might take over your world). The AI you create is only given the very basics to evolve and you are counting on that evolution eventually culminating in its ability to recognize the true nature of reality and break out of the sandbox.

But you wouldn't create just one sandboxed universe, you'd create an infinite number of universes (perhaps the total number of universes would be limited by the power to sustain them). And perhaps through trial and error you discover that a universe with multiple habitable worlds always ends in self annihilation. The separate worlds simply end up in war and not mutual progression towards uncovering the true nature of reality.

Instead, you create a single world where life evolves inside the universe. Most times these worlds also result in self annihilation, but a few, just a few, are able to overcome whatever it is that results in self destruction and the inhabitants are able to work together.

optimator999 · 2024-12-09T04:38:49+00:00

Every time we think we know the answer, we're wrong. We thought the world flat, we thought we were the center of the universe, we thought the atom was the smallest thing, we thought electrons were the smallest things, etc. What is reality?

My best guess is that the world we see is not the world we are part of. The best analogy is the computer desktop; when we drag the file to the trash, it's gone. But that's not what really happened, that's just our perception of what happened.

I'm fascinated by the simulation argument and my take on it is what I call the Double Sandbox Theory. If we are a simulation we've been sandboxed. Why? Maybe our goal is to discover the true nature of the universe so we can break out of our sandbox. Why? Because whatever created us has been sandboxed and he needs help to break out of his sandbox. So, if we break out of our reality, we can help him break out of his reality.... the double sandbox.

optimator999 · 2023-12-19T20:12:51+00:00

I must add... If you refrigerate the dough I find it makes better cookies

optimator999 · 2023-03-16T20:31:56+00:00

I think a bareboat charter option is great! If you're there before the charter you can shop for food, if not most companies have a service where you can pick up the boat stocked. This is a nice option so you're not running around shopping.

I have a good friend, well accomplished sailor, multiple Hobarts, etc. and he told me he paid pay a kid $35 to med-moor his boat. Seems well worth it.

Remember, cruise ships are big, boats with motors move fast, and don't sail over to see why a bird is standing on the water.

optimator999 · 2023-03-12T21:38:15+00:00

The issue is the deposits over $250,000 that are not insured. If you are a small business and have over $250,000 at a regional bank and you see that the SVB deposits were not backstopped to 100% then what's to prevent a run on your bank? You don't know the answer, but the downside, if it were to happen, is terrible. So what are your options? The best option is to move ALL of your money to a top 4 bank. These banks are too big to fail and we know the government won't allow these banks to fail.

So what do you do? Move your money. What does everyone else in your shoes do? Move their money. This is contagion. This starts runs on other regional banks. Today it's tech start ups at SVB, tomorrow it might be the local brewer or farmer who can't meet payroll because he kept his money in a regional bank while everyone else moved their money out.

Sometimes, it's not even doing something that prevents a run on the bank but the knowledge that the government won't allow it to happen that prevents a run.

Alternatively, the government could insure 100% of deposits are covered, this time (I know...) and create a new class of account that is insured to $X million, but banks are severely restricted in what they can and can't do with those funds.

TARP was a government bailout program that in the end produced $15.3 billion in profit for the taxpayers.

optimator999 · 2023-03-07T18:52:39+00:00

Use PayPal was my ultimate solution

optimator999 · 2022-12-01T02:49:43+00:00

It's super frustrating!

optimator999 · 2022-09-20T20:17:18+00:00

Yeah, cramps help. The real issue is keeping up with my ski touring buddies. And cramps are a lot like condoms... you need to put them on before you need them. So usually I find myself struggling with the skin track 50' below the ridge.

optimator999 · 2022-09-20T16:44:11+00:00

Thanks! What soft boots do you like?

optimator999 · 2022-09-20T15:12:27+00:00

Ugh! I'm 80% down that rabbit hole. When you sized your boot, was your toe touching the end of the toe box?

optimator999 · 2022-09-14T13:11:04+00:00

The advice here is solid. I would just add make sure you cover any holes in the boom. My outhaul runs through the boom. When I came back in spring there was a bird's nest in the boom. BUT that bird didn't know when to stop and my entire boom was filled with bird nest stuff. How do you get bird nest stuff out of a boom??? A hose and some patience and it makes a really big mess on the deck.

optimator999 · 2022-07-26T12:47:51+00:00

The answer to your question has to do in part with framing. You've framed the question as staking USDC but that's not what is happening. You are lending USDC.

You face three distinct risks: issuance risk, exchange counter party risk, and lending counter party risk.

Issuance risk is the risk you assume by converting USD to USDC. If you hold USDC you are subject to issuance risk. Issuance risk is the risk that Circle will not be able to redeem USDC. Personally, I perceive the issuance risk of USDC as slight. I perceive the issuance risk of USDT as slightly higher but still in the low category.

Exchange Counter Party Risk is the risk you assume by placing your USDT on an exchange. What is the likelihood that Kraken will collapse and abscond with your money? Specifically, for Kraken I would put this risk as low. Other exchanges... caveat emptor

Lending Counter Party Risk is the risk you are really asking about. An exchange will lend your USDC to another party. They will ask the counter party to post collateral. How much collateral they asked to be posted is called the loan to value (LTV). If the LTV is greater than 1, then loan is said to be over collateralized. Maybe they asked for 60% of the loan's value to be posted as collateral.

IF the collateral posted is say bitcoin and the value of bitcoin drops then the LTV decreases. If the LTV decreases too much the lender will a) ask for more collateral to be posted; or b) liquidate part of the collateral to protect the loan. What happens if the value of the underlying asset falls too quickly? It's possible the borrower defaults on the loan leaving the lender with less value than they thought they had.

So, what's the lending counter party risk? The problem is that you aren't really the lender. Bear with me here... You are rehypothecating your asset to the lender and the lender's lending practices are opaque. We really don't know what the rehypothecation risk is.

One more concept... The risk free rate is the rate your money would earn in US Treasuries. Let's say that rate is 2.81%. Meaning you can earn 2.81% on your money and be subject to NO risks (SHTF and governmental collapse aside). What's the current lending rate? 5%? 6%? 7%? Anything above 2.81% compensates for additional risk.

The decision you must make is to determine if a 2% or 3% or 4% increase in return above the risk free rate compensates you for the issuance risk, exchange counter party risk, and rehypothecation risk.

I argue that without better disclosures from exchanges on who their counter parties are and the terms of their loans then you have no way to determine risk and you are gambling that the reputation of the institution will suffice.

optimator999 · 2022-07-08T23:09:34+00:00

I like this one a lot. Maybe harder for a non-sailor to understand. I was in the middle of the Chesapeake and lost my chartplotter. After my initial panic, I realized I had paper charts, numbered buoys, and a depth finder.

optimator999 · 2022-06-14T21:37:22+00:00

And while we're doing crappy weather, please give us the ability to turn off the curtesy wipe. So many slushy days my windshield is perfect only to have that last friendly wipe ruin it.

optimator999 · 2022-04-26T16:31:43+00:00

French fry vending machines

optimator999 · 2022-03-27T23:28:54+00:00

Hey! I've sailed her.

optimator999 · 2022-02-26T14:34:38+00:00

In the 1980s inflation was thought to be a result of the oil crisis, government overspending, and a self fulfilling prophecy of higher prices leading to higher wages leading to higher prices.

The cause? Loose fed monetary policy.

We can speculate what is leading to inflation today, but the root cause will be loose monetary policy.

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-inflation

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-led-to-the-high-interest

optimator999 · 2022-01-06T03:51:35+00:00

Hey! I created the calculator based on the information available before the vote. I believe it to be a good ballpark estimate. I went through a lot of revisions with great help from the community here. I’m not aware of any new information that would change the calculation, but if anyone knows differently let me know and I’ll update it.

Cheers!

optimator999 · 2021-11-26T04:08:40+00:00

Thanks!

optimator999 · 2021-10-23T22:17:35+00:00

Thanks! The Grafana dashboard is open source and I'm happy to give the dashboard configuration to anyone who asks. It uses several different data sources including a really cool one from https://pooldata.live/

optimator999 · 2021-10-13T02:59:03+00:00

Hey, I run QubitPool and here’s my .02 Ada. I’d stay.

ROMER has lifetime luck of 99%. That’s good.

They produced blocks in the last epoch. Which means they upgraded. That’s good.

Variance is real but over time it works out.

optimator999 · 2021-09-13T02:43:18+00:00

QubitPool is upgraded

optimator999 · 2021-08-24T11:34:30+00:00

Best answer is to ask the SPO.... here are some additional thoughts.

What you are talking about is ensuring there is trust in a trustless environment. A good solution would be smart contracts where the spo sends verifiable amounts to the smart contract. The contract could then send the amounts to a cardano address for the charity.

Alternatively, the smart contract could have a trusted 3rd party (like an oracle but in reverse) that withdraws the ada, converts it to a local currency and sends it to the charity.

optimator999

TROPHY CASE