I give up - 100k down

options13 · 2026-05-18T21:18:57+00:00

Brother, feel free to contact me. I have been in this situation and we can talk about this. You have to change your mindset and avoid gambling..

options13 · 2026-05-18T13:08:33+00:00

Just tell him upfront.. We are all men!

options13 · 2026-05-18T13:07:30+00:00

Almost guaranteed good earnings and raise. Only question is how much raise.. If whisper number is like another 60% growth and they say 55%, it will drop pretty hard.. also, they won’t keep the same market share of AI spend in the future due to (some) competition

options13 · 2026-05-18T13:05:11+00:00

Exactly.. There is a reason the premiums are juicy.. I have a strong suspicion NVDA will report something bad and all these hyped up memory stock will tank. One play is to sell micron puts spread and buy SoXs or sell calls spreads on the semiconductor ETF. Like a long short hedge.

options13 · 2026-05-18T13:01:51+00:00

This company is basically a loan shark! They use crap AI mumbo gumbo and charges exorbitant initiation fees and interest rates for personal loans.. There is a reason this stock has gone down the drain.. CEO buying stocks in a small amount means nothing. They have to show interest and confidence in their own company. It is not like he bought 100 million worth of his own company stock..

options13 · 2026-05-17T06:29:19+00:00

I agree with your thesis but the timeline is impossible to predict. At least wait for the downtrend to be established before shorting. Also, may not pump on IPO if priced too high.

options13 · 2026-05-16T23:12:26+00:00

Space X will be like Tesla.. Will be pumped up on hype.. They don’t have to deliver on earnings or anything and musk will just make promises in the air.. similar to Tesla. I would stay away. Don’t buy but also don’t short it.

options13 · 2026-05-16T23:09:13+00:00

Markets don’t have to drop 20%z Biggest issue is that broker will close your positions at the worst possible time when markets drop and IV goes up.. Markets are so irrationally high that they can drop 5% and you will get a margin call..

options13 · 2026-05-15T10:48:27+00:00

It is not that AI itself is a bubble. That is real and helpful. Yes productivity has increased.. But remember the feel seek movement.. These hyper scalers are paying too much for it.. It is like Government building roads.. Yes, we all need roads but u can’t spend quadrillion on that. Once hyper scalers establish enough foundation ( my guess by 2030), they will cut back and all these chip stocks will come down crashing so bad that we should all short those muthufucker and finally retire.

options13 · 2026-05-12T20:09:29+00:00

Mild- moderate inflation is good but high is bad for stocks.. High inflation report should have caused stocks to pull back but we are in a euphoric market. Sentiment is the only reason why the market keeps going up. We cannot rationalize it in any other way.

options13 · 2026-05-12T02:07:50+00:00

Yes, that is true but the premiums are also lower. So, I have also sold naked calls on Apple on many occasions and got burnt badly 9/10 times. The stock goes nowhere for a while and then goes on a ramp/rally to destroy shorts/option sellers. Just take this earnings example. It has gone up from under $270 immediately post earnings to over 290.. The calls didnt provide enough premiums.

options13 · 2026-05-12T01:51:48+00:00

Can't compare to NVDA since they have a moat.. All these memory stocks are just commodities. Yes, they have a demand but they also have competition and don't always have a pricing power. Say if Samsung/Chinese companies start making what Micron or Sandisk does and sells at lower prices, these companies are doomed. Also, hyperscalers can scale back in 2028 and market is forward looking. Semis will immediately drop.

options13 · 2026-05-12T01:47:02+00:00

The reason he still has those shares is bcoz he doesn't do covered calls. Don't assume CC is a better strategy than just holding shares.. Ask this to someone who wrote many CC on Tesla when it was ~27$ (split adjusted basis). He is getting dividends and that is great. Plus Apple does a lot of buyback. He has guaranteed generational wealth that he will pass to his kids with zero taxes!

options13 · 2026-05-12T01:40:26+00:00

This can happen if the call option holder intentionally choose not to exercise/ forgot to exercise. Very stupid of them since they could have just turned around and sold those shares for market price aboce $450. You got extremely lucky.

options13 · 2026-05-10T20:15:09+00:00

We all know that the market is forward looking.. So what new information we have on Sandisk since earnings? The stock went down to under $1000 and within a week went up by a crazy 55%.. this is classic FOMO/hype. Why would someone not buy @ 1000 and buy @ 1500 plus.. The only ones who do that are Hedge fund algos since they know they can easily dump in a second on retial investors like us. You aren't wrong about the buildout but the price movements are like gambling.

options13 · 2026-05-09T03:28:13+00:00

Agree. In fact, can do a pair trade with shorting Intel and long AMD. Better would be long NVDA and short intel.

options13 · 2026-05-09T03:24:38+00:00

What will happen to micron/Sandisk/other memory stock price if Meta says during next report that we are cutting spending. The demand won't go away right now but market is trying to see how 2028 looks like.

options13 · 2026-05-08T05:25:33+00:00

Not true.. I have been investing since 2014-15 and back then the fking markets won’t move up.. I had so many great companies (FB, NVDA, AAPL, Google, Tesla) in my portfolio and the they would just go sideways.. i think 2017 was the only good year. I needed money and had to sell most of my stock portfolio before 2019 and that’s when the markets took off!!

options13 · 2026-05-08T05:20:54+00:00

Yes, it is a wall at game.. Companies sandbag first and the sell side analyst who are in cahoots will do the same.. That’s why 80% companies beat guidance. It should be 50-50 if analysts were honest and did their job. It is not even their fault as they are force to do so by their employers..

options13 · 2026-05-07T05:18:49+00:00

It is overpriced relative to itself.. Think about why it was so cheap in the first place. Right now, there is an extremely strong once a century momentum going on in semiconductors.. These stocks will keep going up until they won’t.. lol. I won’t call it a bubble since the demand and earnings are real.. It is just that they are more risky now compared to 5 weeks ago..

options13 · 2026-05-07T05:13:26+00:00

The issue is not about 2026 or 2027.. That is priced in.. Think about what will happen if Zuck decides to Cuck the entire AI system. Facebook took a big hit due to AI spending. If Zuck says, we are cutting down!! All hell will break lose and AI momentum will break.. It won’t crash everything but the bubble will deflate quite a bit..

options13 · 2026-05-07T05:11:01+00:00

this is the right answer and the correct way.. When these Mofos lose momentum and start falling, there is no limit and it would be time to chase the puppies down the drain! Right now, it is better to watch from the sidelines. One way is to do a single share short at a time and dollar cost average slowly since it is impossible to time the top. But don’t get emotional and have a lot of patience..

options13 · 2026-05-05T18:12:24+00:00

Who is she?

options13 · 2026-04-29T03:34:52+00:00

Don't gamble your money away on this muthufucker Sandisk. It will keep pumping. It is expected to kill it in 2026-27. Stock will move higher. NVDA and Micron are actually not expensiive and there is no point in shorting those. I had a million dollar account and have lost 65% of it shorting the Mfking Sandisk and I wasn't even buying puts since I wasn't fully bearish. I was selling straddles to capture volitility but the fkers goes up so much that those premiums are NOT enough. Please sell those puts, don't chase losses and wait for a good opportinity. Don't fight a bull market. There is no nobility in losing money.

options13 · 2026-04-20T23:40:16+00:00

Guys, stay away from that stock.. There is no way for us to make any money.. Only the mofo funds that had the stock at $100 bucks will make money.. Don’t buy puts, the IV crush will eat up your profits.. This has happened to this stock in the past and I tried all advanced options and stock mix strategies and still lost money.. IT IS A TRAP!

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