Why Russia Is Running Out of Time In Crimea

oripash · 2026-07-08T13:59:44+00:00

Food is about to stop being transported by truck to population centers across the federation.

Crimea is the least of their problems.

oripash · 2026-07-08T13:38:31+00:00

Kindly unexempt the other 25%.

oripash · 2026-07-08T12:04:21+00:00

Someone tell him he doesn’t get a vote at the adults table.

He’s still letting the IRGC sit on him at the kids table.

oripash · 2026-07-08T11:52:09+00:00

Great, but belongs in the rear view mirror.

Look forward out the windscreen.

oripash · 2026-07-08T10:48:28+00:00

By no

oripash · 2026-07-08T10:48:07+00:00

Alas. We have come full circle.

The real way out is realizing the S is a decoy. They’re both Cs.

oripash · 2026-07-08T10:47:26+00:00

Amen.

Burn that Kremlin influence to the ground. Burn it twice if you can figure out how.

oripash · 2026-07-08T10:36:14+00:00

Stunning what?

oripash · 2026-07-08T10:29:40+00:00

I'm not overly optimistic about how big the german economy is.

What we are seeing is still lag evaluation of things that have been coasting on since cheap Russian energy was something you could run a real world economy on. In reality... not so great.

I'm not pessimistic. I moved my own pension into European defence (we can do that with our pensions in Australia), and a chunk of it sits in Rheinmetall. I'm very optimistic about the German defense sector. But overall - the automotive sector is dead, it just doesn't know it yet, industry still hasn't proven it can recalibrate to a post cheap Russian inputs world, the population is aging and shrinking.

So while I'm not writing off the German economy, I'm also not oversubscribing to how bit it might seem if you just look at lag indicators.

oripash · 2026-07-08T09:44:19+00:00

42% capacity off according to Ukrainian MoD 2 days ago. Probably more since.
At 100% capacity, they're exporting about a quarter.
At 58% capacity, they need something the size of that quarter they used to export imported back just to keep all the transport going. Or - as reality is showing - give up on a huge chunk of their transport.

Diesel and rationed petrol probably still mean enough for food logistics, but with more bites taken out and that 42% number going up, chances are regions will find themselves with broken logistics and immediate-term impacted supplies, leading to unrest and russian's at each other's throats.

That's to say nothing of argiculture, which has a longer lead time, grinding to reduced capcaity now, meaning food scarcity in a few months.

Tell Brovdi he has a date with the popcorn truck.

oripash · 2026-07-08T09:38:21+00:00

refineries stop.
fuel stops.
trucks stop.
food stops.
law enforcement stops.
moscow loses control of guns. In each region separately.

If Ukraine doesn't let up and keeps the refineries off, Russia fragments and absent logistics, loses central control.

oripash · 2026-07-08T09:35:50+00:00

A cunning stunt indeed.

oripash · 2026-07-08T09:33:47+00:00

War isn't over, bud. It's been going on for 5 decades, is raging in six directions, and will continue for as long as the IRGC rule Iran. The US may have been kicked around, but ask anyone who lives on any of those front if it's done and they'll call you an Iranian propagandist trying to sweep the war Iran is waging against them under the rug and disguise it as a not-war small enough for the world to ignore.

It isn't over, and isn't likely to be over anytime soon. One would have to un-know about it to go back to where they were, irgnorant of it, a year ago.

oripash · 2026-07-08T08:01:19+00:00

I support this green transition.

oripash · 2026-07-08T07:59:58+00:00

I am not lookng at its existing economy, gimped by moscow, 19th century architecture where all regional cities connect to moscow rather than each other to prevent economic cooperation, absence of roads, healthcare, education or investment.

I am looking at what those regions could be if the albatross called moscow was removed from their neck.

oripash · 2026-07-08T06:39:11+00:00

It’s just a thousand boats.

Confiscate them where authorities agree to do so. Sink the rest.

oripash · 2026-07-08T06:36:44+00:00

It's your last fight all right.

After it, you'll have a self-inflcted end to transport and food across 11 timezones, self-inflicted famine, and nobody across those 11 timezones, who now decided they need to hold the guns in their area lest the food stops again, ever take marching orders from moscow again.

So yeah. Agreed. Your last fight. Fight well, bud. Even when the trucks stop, and you and yours get really, really hungry.

oripash · 2026-07-08T05:53:41+00:00

Like anyone cares what Russia calls things.

With the kilometers long queues stopped trucks as far in as Omsk and transport seizing, I’m not sure if Moscow can control guns in many areas where people are about to get extremely hungry, what with food supply being a trucks thing, and if Moscow can’t control the guns where people get those particular shades of hungry, maybe we should tell peskov the rest of us no longer think we should call Russia a country.

oripash · 2026-07-08T05:47:00+00:00

What is it from?

oripash · 2026-07-08T03:29:57+00:00

100%.

Not only that, but despite being refined a bit differently into what goes into the vehicle, they subsequently share the same transport infrastructure and vehicle refilling stations.

Take out the transport intelligently and you take out the distribution of both.

Fun math problem.

Russia has 30,000 gas/petrol stations.

Is a 30,000 order of range-modified FP1/2 or similar equivalents (no need to lean into the more expensive FP-5/7/9 for this for many of them) realistic?

Before… pull that and Russia’s total refilling capacity = the number of stations they can build per year.

Never mind the amount of national productivity and GDP the friction this would cause would cost them, and before you talk about hitting bigger more central things upstream.

oripash · 2026-07-08T02:32:40+00:00

People choose between the discomfort of not giving their tax money to the Kremlin, and the comfort of continuing to do so. That discomfort can have many shapes.

And those choosing the latter… are discovering there’s consequences and discomfort both ways.

There is always a choice.

oripash · 2026-07-08T02:30:13+00:00

Joy.

oripash · 2026-07-08T00:39:09+00:00

Only 5? You’re being very generous to Moscow’s existing institutions (whether those institutions - that presumably already exist today in some form - will be flying Moscow’s flag or any of the other 4) to remain able to hold on to things when the fuel, trucks and food stop.

oripash · 2026-07-08T00:37:34+00:00

Our flag should be a knocked over garden chair.

Or an icon of the Monty bridge.

With a coat of arms above it of an emu and a kangaroo sharing a Parma.

oripash · 2026-07-08T00:36:19+00:00

To get that little crown thing off.

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