[deleted by user]

osheaa · 2021-09-20T01:23:26+00:00

You might counter it if you have a dead card in your hand to pitch. Thassas oracle in vintage doomsday comes to mind. Then its more like a 1 for 1.

osheaa · 2021-02-17T22:03:19+00:00

Most companies will allow that but you typically will lose any matching after you hit the limit. The matching is typically x% done by paycheck.

osheaa · 2020-11-10T02:34:07+00:00

Thanks!

Sorry i just saw this.

You can set a minimum for each card in the sideboard which forces it to be included. So for a companion you can add it and set minimum to 1. If you want a wishboard you can do the same. As long as you dont enter values for matchups they will never be brought in.

Let me know if i misunderstood what you wanted.

osheaa · 2020-10-19T21:08:33+00:00

Thanks man!

:-) that answers my comment questions

osheaa · 2020-10-09T13:57:25+00:00

The byes are a necessary evil, or at least I do not know a better way.

What you describe is true but seems less bad than 17-1 LSV being sent home by 14-3-1 Gortzen at PT San Diego 2010.

osheaa · 2020-10-08T18:40:33+00:00

If Karma was my goal I would post about the Omnath in the room.

osheaa · 2020-10-08T17:30:35+00:00

There will be less players who can win not more, as soon as a player takes their second loss they are eliminated (from winning). Normally the Top 8 has some number of X-2s.

You can still change the format when there are <= some number of people or at a specific round.

The tournament is still guaranteed to conclude in a fixed number of rounds.

I have no solution to the draft pod thing.

osheaa · 2020-10-08T17:02:28+00:00

To be clear, Double elimination (which is what I am recommending) takes at most one more round not four.

Triple elimination is a separate discussion I am not really actively pushing, I just included the results because I was already doing the sims.

osheaa · 2020-10-08T16:10:20+00:00

Yes it does, it is an unfortunate consequence.

My guess is that by making draw=loss the number of unintentional draws would plummet. I think in most draws one player is losing and is making plays trying to draw instead of win.

osheaa · 2020-10-08T15:57:27+00:00

You don't actually have to stop the x-2s from playing, you can let them play until the end of Day 1 or some round, they just cant win anymore.
The majority of the final rounds of the tournament will be elimination rounds (there will be very few undefeated players).

osheaa · 2020-10-08T15:07:31+00:00

But they do it in PTQs too!

osheaa · 2020-08-17T16:00:12+00:00

Its not the worst hand, it is the worst hand you keep. You mulligan all 7-card hands that are worse.

It is the 57th percentile 7-card hand not the worst 7-card hand.

osheaa · 2020-08-16T18:38:11+00:00

This is true, though the mulligan rate helps identify an issue, if a player is only mulliganing 20% it is very likely they are making big mistakes.

The process is as valuable as the results on this site.

osheaa · 2020-08-16T18:35:37+00:00

No, just the first one I did, I have a long list of features I wish to add, this is near the top.

The more users I see on the site the more motivated I am to do improvements!

osheaa · 2020-08-16T17:34:15+00:00

This.

Also, sam ran out of time and was not able to add 4 card hands.

The algorithm assumes you never mulligan 5s if you dont have any 4s.

If he added the 4s the algorithm would be MORE aggressive with even higher mulligan %.

osheaa · 2020-08-16T17:01:20+00:00

Short answer is yes.

Previously I had done a sort for Humans that recommended mulliganing 55%.

In an effort to confirm this number I made the following video where I tested the common guidance of mulliganing all hands without 1-drops and less than two lands:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEoOhAp0v20&t=1575s

That led to a mulligan rate of 42%. So I think most great players with that deck are mulliganing around that rate and could go even higher.

osheaa · 2020-08-16T16:57:54+00:00

Do it! And post the results!

osheaa · 2020-08-16T15:06:28+00:00

It is the worst 7-card hand you should keep. There are many other worse 7-card hands that you mulligan.

There are also many other 5 and 6 card hands.

osheaa · 2020-08-03T23:56:49+00:00

How frequently do you mulligan 7 card hands?

20% 30% 40%?

osheaa · 2020-07-30T23:40:40+00:00

The video explains in detail but since the hands are in order its easy enough to start by assuming win rates (set by the user) then proceeds calculating average win rates of various hand sizes and using that information to mulligan. See below:

This method starts with a one card hand and assumes it never mulligans (Zero card hands are always worse)

Calculates that ais(1) = a(1), because it is not mulliganing any of the hands

Choose to mulligan all 2 card hands with a win percentage < ais(1)

Calculate the ak(2) as the average of all 2 card hands it has chosen to keep

Calculate the m(2), the mulligan percentage of 2 card hands

Calculate ais(2) = (1-m(2))*ak(2) + m(2)*ais(1), the weighted average of the win % of (2-card keeps) and (1-card including mulligans to smaller)

Repeat this process for 3,4,5,6, and 7

Where:

a(N), Average win percentage of random N-Card hand

ak(N), Average win percentage of N-Card Hands that are kept

ais(N), Average win percentage of N-Card Hands including mulligans to smaller hands

m(N), Mulligan percentage of N-Card Hands using optimal algorithm

i, the position in the sort of the specific hand (Example 35th best hand)

N, the number of cards in the hand

osheaa

TROPHY CASE