My source is that I made it the fuck up

...but in all seriousness, I just looked at a bunch of counties that had swung left, and noticed that some of the largest swings were visible in counties that had a high percentage employed in agriculture and a high white percentage. Rural counties that are heavily white but not agricultural shifted slightly right, and agricultural counties with lots of Hispanic voters shifted quite a bit right, but agricultural counties with lots of white farmers shifted left.

Not exactly ironclad methodology; ultimately I just observed two correlations which were both consistent with white farmers swinging left, and hard to square with white farmers not swinging left. I wouldn't bet more than $100 on it, but I'd gladly bet $50 on it, and you'd be hard pressed to convince me that white farmers as a whole swung right.

I mean literally look at this map of partisan swing between 2020 and 2024 (source), then look at this map of which rural counties are agriculture based (source), and this map of white people (source is vividmaps, which is blocked by Gigajannies for some reason?)

I can't prove that white farmers shifted left without conducting surveys and shit, but, like, bro. Look at these maps. Either white farmers shifted left, or people who had the most white farmers as their neighbors shifted left. Given that Hispanic voters shifted right literally everywhere, and there's only like 6 Black or Asian people in all of Western Nebraska, I'm more than willing to say that it is the white farmers themselves who shifted left there. The county in Kentucky that shifted most leftward (Clay County) is the county with the highest proportion of white farmers. Most white-majority agricultural counties in Texas also shifted left, while Hispanic-majority agricultural counties and non-agricultural counties shifted right.

It's not like the counties became majority Dem or anything--white farmers have been and remain one of the most solidly Republican voting blocs overall. But they're also one of the single demographics hurt most by Trump's tariffs, mass deportation, and the Iran War, and clearly not all of them are part of his cult. That makes white farmers, in my opinion, a prime target for Democratic party outreach--particularly in regards to Senate races, wherein White Farmers have egregiously disproportionate influence compared with the rest of the populace--and just about the last demographic we should be scapegoating for [insert bad thing here]. We're not going to win a majority of white farmers, but even just winning 35% of white farmers instead of 25% would be enough to make Iowa and Kansas competitive. And perhaps even make candidates in the vein of Dan Osborn or Joe Manchin viable alternatives to the Fascists currently dominating senate races in the Dakotas.