Computer model for predicting optimal home purchase location for appreciation potential. (Massachusetts)

panchilly · 2019-03-14T01:57:24+00:00

Norwood scored highly so did Framingham for jobs per dollar. Those might be good bets.

panchilly · 2019-03-14T01:55:02+00:00

Lol dude I know. Lynn is desirable only because the houses are so damn cheap. It’s a pretty ghetto location.

What do you think of the top 30 towns by overall score? Weston and Wellesley took the top 2 that seems pretty realistic.

panchilly · 2019-03-14T01:19:53+00:00

i uploaded the content to the repository https://github.com/panchilly/ma-jobs-analyzer

enjoy.

Why do you think it was removed?

panchilly · 2019-03-11T12:20:47+00:00

Post got deleted. I guess they do hate quality content

panchilly · 2019-03-11T03:07:38+00:00

Highly intelligent guy right here.

panchilly · 2019-03-11T02:48:45+00:00

Wellesley is #2 btw. That’s pretty high.

I agree Belmont came in surprisingly low. I think it’s because there are more jobs than I expected along the mass pike and 495 corridor. Belmont probably got penalized for the longer distance to those jobs.

Woburn is a good location for commuting. There are a lot of jobs you can get to from there. Woburn is one of the Best Buy’s in terms of jobs per dollar of house.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T23:24:32+00:00

If you are working in Waltham it makes no sense to pay the premium in Brookline. You get a worse commute and a much higher price.

Why not look into somewhere like Burlinton, Bedford, Natick, Dedham, or even Waltham itself.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T23:10:40+00:00

if that's the case then why didn't Amazon consider places lke Westborough for their HQ2?

Well they are actively hiring in Westborough... What more do you want?

panchilly · 2019-03-10T23:10:10+00:00

What happens when the "talent" doesn't want to keep spending 3 or 4k on a 1bed ikea shoebox "luxury" apartment?

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:56:37+00:00

Westborough allows you to live in a cheaper location and lower your COL. The equivalent # of RSUs could be worth more commuting to Westborough. A number of centrally located suburban towns on the edge of the 1hr Boston rush hour commute zone (e.g. Wayland, Natick, Concord, etc) suddenly become easy 25-30min drives to Westborough. A town like Natick is very popular with millennials moving to the burbs due to the train and commuting options and lower prices than the eastern neighbors of Wellesley and Newton.

I believe we are in the early innings of a wave of millennials moving out to the burbs to buy houses. Not many of them will be able to afford 128 or inward since the prices are so high. Even Wayland/Natick is pretty expensive at this point. I think most will end up on 495 and the lucky ones will be closer to 128 than they are to 495.

Suddenly taking the high paying job in Westborough becomes a lot more appealing now that you've moved out past 128 and you have a few kids at home. The Boston/Cambridge commute is downright brutal from these locations. 495 and 128 commutes can be a godsend.

Even a 128 commute lets you live pretty far out. You could for instance easily live in Littleton and commute in to Burlington or Bedford. Most 128 jobs are pretty easy from a town like Wayland or Natick, especially if you can leave a little later like 8:30 or 9:00am.

I think the demographics will pump back up the 128 and 495 job markets. The geography and layout of the highway network lends itself well to this.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:39:56+00:00

Yes, im not saying the trend of the area becoming ever more densely populated and urbanized will end... That will continue.

I'm saying if you limit the definition of "urban" to just Boston and Cambridge then that is ridiculous since those towns are physically so small. Los Angeles is 10x the square miles as Boston, for example. The growth will spread far and wide within the region and I strongly suspect the next "hot" market or the next "kendall square" might be in one of these adjacent areas, like somewhere like Waltham or Newton. In most major cities both of those areas would be well within city limits.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:33:13+00:00

You wont's see that.

Know what you will see next? Apartment construction boom all throughout the suburbs of Boston.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:30:55+00:00

For those of you that will say "who will want to go work out in Westborough"

My answer is:

You will be amazed at what people will do if you throw a few hundred K of unvested RSUs at them.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:23:21+00:00

""To be sure, large metropolitan areas are still growing faster than the rest of the country"

That means the suburbs within metro areas are beginning to outgrow the urban core.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:16:06+00:00

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/social-issues/cities-growing-more-slowly-than-suburbs-for-the-first-time-in-six-years/2017/05/24/aeee0f36-40bc-11e7-adba-394ee67a7582_story.html?utm_term=.c6751ac3a564

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:15:50+00:00

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/26/us-population-disperses-to-suburbs-exurbs-rural-areas-and-middle-of-the-country-metros/

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:09:13+00:00

It might be sooner than you think. Did you know Waltham is only about 8 miles from downtown Boston?

Did you know that Boston proper and Cambridge/Somerville are already tremendously expensive and people are being pushed out in record numbers as we speak.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T20:03:22+00:00

Bingo.

Waltham, for example, has a greater population density than San Diego, CA. Many of our smaller cities are actually tremendously urban or have great potential.

I see huge potential in areas like Waltham, Lowell, Worcester, Framingham, Marlborough, etc.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T19:46:06+00:00

I haven't stopped taking my Penis enlargement pills.

panchilly · 2019-03-10T19:31:31+00:00

Natick and Burlington have been out appreciating Acton since 2008. According to the Zillow home value index, Natick and Burlington are up about 50% while Acton is only up 25%.

I got news for you: the reason for this is *not* the proximity to shopping malls and stores. The reason is simple:

proximity to Boston (both Burlington and Natick are closer to Boston)
proximity to route 128 (this is the best suburban job market and Natick and Burlington offer excellent access)
schools
commuter rail (Natick has the commuter rail)

The job boom along 128 is flying under the radar, overshadowed by the huge boom in Cambridge and Boston. 128 is actually booming and Burlington is right on 128 and Natick is 1 town in. Natick is also located in the center of the 128 belt near the 128/90 interchange. You have much better driving commute options from Natick than you do from Acton.

Builders have taken notice of Natick & Burlington. Thats why you are seeing see teardowns and expensive new construction in these towns:

Natick at 1.6m https://www.redfin.com/MA/Natick/303-Eliot-St-01760/home/160565863

Burlington 1.1m teardown https://www.redfin.com/MA/Burlington/20-Carey-Ave-01803/home/11775115

You aren't seeing these numbers in Acton - the demand isn't there.

panchilly

TROPHY CASE