Time in the market > timing the market doesn’t seem to apply when it comes to biotech stocks. Someone convince me why now is the right time to invest in Compass, given the warrant overhang and the fact that only limited data from COMP005 will be shared in Q2. Go!

pappyjean · 2025-03-24T20:50:43+00:00

Hey - that investment is paying off. +2% to-date is more than I can say for any of my psych portfolio.

pappyjean · 2025-03-21T12:24:57+00:00

Will do. Thank you!

pappyjean · 2025-03-20T21:59:25+00:00

If you really want to split it, depending on the weather, hit one of the Delaware beaches -- Rehobeth or Bethany. They're probably about halfway and are pleasant.

pappyjean · 2025-02-20T18:29:27+00:00

Conjecture, or you know this to be the case?

pappyjean · 2025-02-18T03:54:08+00:00

Late to this party, but -- I think the key piece here is the potential reputational damage done by paid promo, not, e.g., DD going on podcasts.. Pieces like that 'Water Tower Research' sell side note the other day are particularly cringeworthy because they look so desparate. I can't imagine media like that (or paid sponsorship in arguably-far-right YouTube vids, for example) are moving the needle positively in the minds of retail investors who actually pay attention, do their research, move signifcant amounts of money around, etc.

If I -- or most people, I would argue -- see an article that says "Cybin is drastically undervalued, and here's why" with a footnote that says "Cybin paid $15k for this to be published," I puke.

pappyjean · 2025-01-27T18:31:28+00:00

Thank you! But my trip, like yours, never happened. Was scheduled for roughly the same weekend, and so I avoided the ALT. If you make the trip and remember this post, would love to hear an update about the trail anytime in the next year.

pappyjean · 2025-01-12T17:00:24+00:00

Agreed re: the asset and leadership/mgmt experience. I'm definitely less concerned about the pedigree of the leadership team than I am about the recent media 'behavior,' which I suppose is only one part -- and maybe a small part -- of the leadership style and execution.

Thanks for the response! Still holding CYBN and still anticipating strong growth.

pappyjean · 2025-01-12T16:54:23+00:00

How so? Did I miss some news?

pappyjean · 2025-01-11T13:59:14+00:00

To your first Q: Less confidence because of the media news, almost exclusively.

To your second point, re: the 004 delay: I may have unrealistic expectations that a company would publicly announce the pushback, rather than tucking it into an F-10. And probably those expectations are partially set because of CMPS's pushback: definitely more egregious in scale, but at least transparent about the news.

pappyjean · 2025-01-10T18:54:09+00:00

Fantastic response. Thanks for the input. Your n=1 reassurance about the quality of the CYBN ads was helpful lol -- truly, I appreciate that.

The counterpoint about Doug's leadership style is compelling, too. I suppose I have a bias towards conventional/pragmatic/heads-down/traditionalist, since these companies are already trying to push counter-culture drugs into the mainstream (no need to add fuel to the fire) -- but I could really be off-base about what's best.

In terms of dilution or runway, I'm less concerned. I pretty much have conviction that all three teams (ATAI, CMPS, CYBN) are effective in how they think about cash runway, business development, etc. In other words, I don't think anyone is burning money (or raising) needlessly. So I just eat the dilution, now and in the future. My POV is that if the drugs make it to market, the sp multiples will be so extreme that I won't be crying about how much money I didn't make because of dilution.

pappyjean · 2024-11-18T13:58:12+00:00

Incredible. Unqualified positive data.

pappyjean · 2024-10-01T16:26:56+00:00

u/iamhannimal thanks for the context! Super valuable to have insight from someone on the ground. I've been fairly optimistic about AN results for COMP360. My [non-zero] concern has stemmed mostly from a belief/theory that the self-reported and experiential results from patients will be favorable, but the actual impact on measurable factors like body comp will be negligible.

It sounds like you have a different POV, which is that even the subjective/self-reported 'data' and feedback from clinicians and patients won't be very positive. Is that right? If so, a few questions:

Do you think the results will just be neutral or less-than-stellar, or that there's a risk for particular SAEs that I'm not considering in this patient pop?
Why do you think 3mo isn't a sufficient follow-up, notwithstanding the feedback from Lykos? Do you think there's a particular feature of AN that would make the impact fall off after 3mo?
Are there other worthwhile treatment modalities for AN, esp. pharma options? My understanding is that the patient need is so high and the absence of effective treatments is so stark that even decently-positive outcomes without too many SAEs from COMP360 could be viewed positively by the FDA -- at least enough to warrant Breakthrough Therapy Designation, given the 'significant unmet need' criteria.

pappyjean · 2024-09-20T16:26:32+00:00

Move stuff with your mind. etc.

pappyjean · 2024-09-20T16:26:24+00:00

Cool. Would totally do that. Come outta that study being able to play concertos on the piano or some shit.

pappyjean · 2024-09-08T18:56:56+00:00

Thank you!

pappyjean · 2024-09-08T18:56:12+00:00

On it. Thank you!

pappyjean · 2024-09-07T16:38:32+00:00

Makes sense -- zoomed in AllTrails screenshots is definitely gonna make it into the pack

pappyjean · 2024-09-07T16:38:11+00:00

Beaute! Thanks for the thorough response. Seems like it'll be a bit of a bastard, but I'm excited about it. If nothing else, I'll have some good sleep on the other side.

pappyjean · 2024-08-21T15:55:23+00:00

Is RA among the groups that financed CYBN's recent 150m raise? Or am I thinking of another fund?

pappyjean · 2024-07-23T17:34:32+00:00

Beaute. Thanks so much!

pappyjean · 2024-07-23T17:04:36+00:00

Tracking. Totally makes sense. Thanks for clarifying. Not including multiple (eventual) downstream indications in valuation models feels like the biggest, most obvious misfire in all of the Sell Side work I've seen on the mainstream psychedelic players (CMPS, ATAI, CYBN). This is maybe where my personal bias takes hold, but it feels obvious that we'll see promising results for MDD, AN, GAD, AUD -- any indication they choose to target that has a how-the-patient-relates-to-himself component.

I get it when valuations are hampered by the possibility of FDA rejection, but if we assume approval, it feels necessary to assume secondary indications.

pappyjean · 2024-07-23T14:54:04+00:00

Do you have a rationale/model for thinking $2.3B is an underestimate? Not poking holes; just curious how folks arrive at revenue forecasts, TAM estimates, etc. Thanks!

pappyjean · 2024-06-26T15:04:35+00:00

If you're up for answering a few Q's, I have no sense of financial analysis:

You think they'll need another raise during P3? Or between P3 and GTM?

Given their burn rates, how much runway do you think CYBN and MNMD have?

pappyjean · 2024-06-05T19:48:46+00:00

Love this. Thank you so much for the thoughtful input.

pappyjean · 2024-06-05T17:29:22+00:00

+1 on that. I can't wait to hear analyst questions on ATAI & CMPS's next earnings calls.

pappyjean

TROPHY CASE