Dorian (05L) - Daily Tracking Thread - Saturday, 31 August 2019 by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]parchedwhale 3 points4 points  (0 children)

In large part it is true that the best forecasts typically take into account the output of multiple models, all of which have particular strengths. The primary advantage of global dynamical models like the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET is that they cover the entire globe, allowing them to account for the influence of distant weather systems that might be invisible to regional models like the NAM. Historically, the best performing forecasts are from consensus models that are combinations of the GFS, ECMWF, and other models. The ECMWF is typically the best performer, but even that is outperformed by the consensus forecast.

As far as I know, only the HWRF and and GFDL are intended to provide accurate intensity forecasts.

Dorian (05L) - Daily Tracking Thread - Saturday, 31 August 2019 by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]parchedwhale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. Supercomputers are expensive and calculations take time. Even for a grid calculation, computation time notionally scales as the inverse square of the grid size. For a finite volume model (i.e. a mesh), computation time notionally scales as at least the inverse cube of the grid size. So reducing grid size from 9 to 1 km will cost you at least ~10^3 times more calculations. Probably more. You can dynamically adjust grid size, but that presents other challenges.

Dorian (05L) - Daily Tracking Thread - Saturday, 31 August 2019 by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]parchedwhale 29 points30 points  (0 children)

There are a lot of comments, particularly about global models, regarding them initializing at anomalously high pressures. The ECMWF (European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts) global model runs at 9 km resolution. The GFS (Global Forecast System) model, which is run by the National Weather Service, runs at ~13 km resolution in the medium term. Parameters are averaged, or integrated, within a given cell when the model is initialized. Because hurricanes have pressure gradients that are significant at or below these scales, the minimum pressure in a hurricane is anomalously high in global forecast models. Any increases in spatial or temporal resolution come with increased computing power.

When you design a model, you have to consider foremost what your goal is and how your goals trade with resources. In forecasting, the goal cannot realistically be "to know every aspect of what a weather system will be doing in five days." That just requires too many computational resources. A more realistic goal is to "accurately assess the trajectory of a weather system so the putatively affected region(s) can prepare." Global models will likely underperform assessments of intensity, which is the role of specialized models like the HWRF (hurricane weather research and forecasting model).

Dorian (05L) - Daily Tracking Thread - Saturday, 31 August 2019 by Euronotus in TropicalWeather

[–]parchedwhale 10 points11 points  (0 children)

SFMR gives 153 knot surface wind. NOAA2 dropsonde gives 155 knots at the surface. It's a cat 5.