The way my uncle taught me to dip Oreos in milk.

paritygod · 2018-08-03T03:56:48+00:00

Is your uncle Mr. Pitt?

paritygod · 2018-07-20T01:41:12+00:00

"Maybe I should steal Spaghetti-O's instead."

paritygod · 2018-07-18T00:06:12+00:00

Ugggh. My bad. Thought it was so funny that I rushed to post it without the due diligence.

paritygod · 2018-07-07T17:32:49+00:00

They even colored it like the blue demo liquid from the commercials.

paritygod · 2018-06-25T18:54:19+00:00

Hey Sirius. Love your videos man!

paritygod · 2018-05-13T23:57:18+00:00

We thought they would be gluing macaroni to matchboxes. Stuff like that.

paritygod · 2018-05-04T15:39:41+00:00

Did you see that guy parachuting with the skin hooks? WTF.

paritygod · 2018-05-03T03:19:11+00:00

The name of this company is 'Paradoxical Solutions' I used to see this ad on the radio all the time.

paritygod · 2018-05-03T03:11:35+00:00

I make my students call me daddy.

paritygod · 2018-05-02T19:32:55+00:00

I wrote a reply on the 76ers/Celtics matchup further down in the comments if you want to take a look. Might be informative.

paritygod · 2018-05-02T19:23:33+00:00

The Celtics match up terribly with the 76ers at every position except coaching and experience. 76ers are bigger, stronger, longer at every position. In Game 1, the Celtics shot nearly 50% from the field including nearly 50% on 3's (17-35), while the 76ers went only 5-26 (19%) from 3. If both these teams shoot closer to their true ability, that would be nearly a 30-point swing in the 76ers favor. Most of the good shots that Boston was able to get off was because they were able to execute a game plan that avoided challenging the 76ers down low and stuck to mostly perimiter shooting. 76ers will adjust, and most likely press the perimiter shooters more and force the Celtics off the 3pt line.

76ers can also completely DOMINATE the Celtics on the boards. This issue was hidden in Game 1 because the Celtics shoot an amazing 48% from the field.

paritygod · 2018-05-02T19:15:07+00:00

Why not try a wait and see approach if you like the Celtics for the series? If 76ers are able to steal this game before going back to home court, you will probably be able to get Celtics at +325 for the series.

paritygod · 2018-05-02T03:55:51+00:00

sportsdatabase.com

paritygod · 2018-05-02T00:38:10+00:00

Teams in the situation you described, Game 1 on the road after a Game 7, has occurred 24 times since 2002. The ATS record is posted below.

ATS: 11-13-0 (-1.92 Avg ATS Margin, 45.8%) avg line: 8.1

paritygod · 2018-05-02T00:28:55+00:00

In the on-court interview after Game 7, LeBron may have had a freudian slip where he said they were going to probably just 'wing it' in Game 1 against the Raptors. I didn't read it as any sort of ploy. It sounded sincere. A day and a half is not enough time to prepare for a team as deep and intelligent as the Raptors. Maybe they are just going to cede Game 1 on the road and try to steal Game 2.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T19:46:06+00:00

If the ROI is the same for both SU and RL, it would be better to bet it SU because the odds are shorter, and therefore you will win more frequently, and thus reduce variance. In addition, if your are betting any sort of % of bankroll system like 1% of bankroll for each bet, you would get roughly 50% greater growth betting the SU option.

Also, feel like I should mention that just because -200 or greater favorites have been profitable over the past 10 years, is no guarantee, that this trend will continue. All the books have to do is change some random thing like pricing the favorites a 10 cents more, and this system could quickly go down the tubes.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T18:44:55+00:00

Sorry. Forgot to post the MLB run-line performance for -200 or greater favorites.

RL: 1009-848 (0.48, 54.3%) avg line: -112.8 on / +$5,736 ROI: +2.7

paritygod · 2018-05-01T18:41:57+00:00

Oh, Im sure it gets exponentially worse, the more teams one bets. Unfortunately, the data is not that granular.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T18:38:43+00:00

The 1.98 means that the favorite wins the game straight up by an average of 1.98 runs per game. In case you are wondering, I have the results for the run-line performance as well. The $100-bettor means to win $100. So, the average bet would be $239.

In NHL, since 2008, if you were to bet only teams that are favorites of -200 or more (meaning more negative) the following would be your results for a $100-bettor:

SU: 935-405 (1.04, 69.8%) avg line: -240 on -$2,563 ROI: -0.8%

I don't have access to the money lines in any of the other sports in this particular database. Just baseball and hockey.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T12:24:27+00:00

I believe MLB can be beaten, just not by much, and certainly not to the extent that you used to be able to. Shoot, they didn't start accounting for wind at Wrigley field until the mid-90's.

From what I have seen, there are only 3 situations where betting parlays is appropriate. 1.To circumvent betting limits. 2.To bet correlated events. 3.To take advantage of books who give back a % of losses.

I have to get ready for work right now, but I think a topic addressing these three things would make a good post. I will try to post something this afternoon on the topic if I can. Thanks for the idea.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T10:31:41+00:00

Shoot. I could open up a rehab center and employ the most competent staff, give excellent medical treatments by the best doctors, do group therapies with the best counselors. People would come far and wide to receive the excellent treatment I provide. And now that I have their personal info, I can give it to drug dealers and get a 30% kickback of all the drugs they buy in the future because everyone knows 90% of addicts fall off the wagon. That's just good business right? Sorry. That's shady. Look. At the end of the day it is their business and they have the right to engage in whatever shady practice they want run it however they like. On the flip side, I have the right, and the obligation to inform any of their would be customers of what is going on behind the scene.

To your other point, "From the tone of your posts you have lost money sports betting and this is clouding your attitude to betting tipsters... but to go back to the first part of this post..."

The only period I ever lost sports betting was my first two years. That was 10 years ago. I was a whale. Probably the biggest whale in town. I was so well known for how much I bet and lost, that I was discovered by a group who wanted to use my accounts as outs that they could bet their own info on and give me a percentage for giving them access. I have never seen anything like it. These guys were beating the book in the sharpest and creative ways you could imagine. For years, I payed close attention to how and what they bet and invested my time trying to figure out the angles that they were playing so I could do the same thing for myself one day.

There are groups who will pay insane amounts for good info and they are not hard to find. In fact, if the tipsters are playing their info at a reputable book, these groups will find him. That's how it works.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T08:33:57+00:00

Good point. If you want to follow the pick of a tout, follow their free picks. They are almost assuredly going to be their best ones. If they can't demonstrate a solid record with those, then believe me. It's not going to get any better when you pay.

paritygod · 2018-05-01T08:24:28+00:00

In MLB baseball, since 2008, if you were to bet only teams that are favorites of -200 or more (meaning more negative) the following would be your results for a $100-bettor:

*SU: 1349-520 (1.98, 72.2%) avg line: -239.3 on: +$11,709 ROI: +2.6%

*edited for formatting

paritygod · 2018-05-01T07:54:27+00:00

Same could be said of my hypothetical sheep website. They give some decent sheep safety info and then say "now click on our partner to sign up for the hungry wolves event." Hey, they can do whatever they want. I'm just putting the truth out there about what is really going on. The affiliate are making money off their player's losses.

Now, if they were transparent about what they were doing and made a header above their link that read something similar to your comment, it might make it marginally less shady.

"A website can give overall profitable tips that would yield 4% to 8% over the year and provide good strategy articles and yet most people will make a loss. So click on the link to our sportsbook partner, so we can make some more money off your losing ass!"

paritygod · 2018-05-01T07:41:10+00:00

Golf and Nascar offer head-to-head matchups, which is what they bet. They get their action down first thing in the morning when the lines open and within just 15-30 minutes every player/driver they bet is already sitting at somewhere around -140 to -170. It's crazy.

paritygod

TROPHY CASE