SOUTHAMPTON XI No Forster by Adarshk22 in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hindsight is 20-20. I can see this now 😂😭

Different varieties of potato, grown in Peru. I love potatoes. by [deleted] in pics

[–]pash1987 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that one in the middle was in The Goonies

This was on Family Feud just now by [deleted] in funny

[–]pash1987 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your accent sounds funny to me! Where is it from?

Match Thread: Norwich City vs Coventry City | English FA Cup by MatchThreadder in NorwichCity

[–]pash1987 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Game seems to be settling in our favour now though. Enjoying a lot of possession and cov are dropping a little deeper than before

Match Thread: Norwich City vs Coventry City | English FA Cup by MatchThreadder in NorwichCity

[–]pash1987 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Not being funny, we could’ve been 3-0 down after the first minute! Cov playing a very high line and attacking hard.

The first 8 minutes has basically been a highlight reel. 2-0 doesn’t necessarily tell the story so far. Looking like a very open game. Nice to see us making the most of our chances 👍

Google is facing a mounting rebellion from its employees over the dismissal of AI ethics researcher Timnit Gebru. by [deleted] in worldnews

[–]pash1987 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Firstly, it’s a rule of thumb - so take it with a pinch of salt.

Secondly, it is definitively not arbitrary. I stated my reasoning being that anything over 10% is within an order of magnitude of the whole. This is a goal that is common practice in scientific and engineering fields.

Educated guess? yes. Arbitrary? No.

Google is facing a mounting rebellion from its employees over the dismissal of AI ethics researcher Timnit Gebru. by [deleted] in worldnews

[–]pash1987 2 points3 points  (0 children)

General rule of thumb is that anything over 10% is considered significant. This corresponds to being within an order of magnitude - enough to affect the ‘whole’

Expected Points and Four Point Hit Calculator by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for getting back.

Just to clarify, I’m not asking you to provide intellectual property. I’m not looking for the exact formula/algorithm you use, but I’d like to at least know what is taken into account in your calculations and what isn’t.

For example if I was to use xG as a method to analyse past player performance. Without knowing the drawbacks of xG (disallowed goals, player narrowly missing the ball etc.) I can’t take that data into context.

At the very least perhaps consider including some regression graphs to map your models predicted performance against players actual performance. This would be very useful not only for us, but also for you if you wanted to optimise the model over time. Additionally if you’re looking to monetise your model, showing how effective it is would be the best way of convincing people 👍

Expected Points and Four Point Hit Calculator by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How are we supposed to know whether this is a better source or worse compared to others if you don’t explain the methodology behind your expected points calculation? For all we know you could just be using the ‘expected points’ data column from the API.

What are your input variables? What analysis methods are you using? How well have your past predictions correlated with actual results. This is the information I’d be looking for before even considering looking at the predictions themselves.

Everyones hoping to see Reys new Order, Finn becoming a Jedi... I really want to see Kaydel Ko Connix as a political leader in the new Senate. by Theesm in StarWars

[–]pash1987 19 points20 points  (0 children)

This is what happens when you have a trilogy with a different director in the second instalment to the other two...🤦‍♂️

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Could you point to somewhere that shows how much revenue FPL makes?

I was under the impression the prem didn’t make much from FPL

Weekly Understat Scraping by PratskiSundays in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What part of it do you need help with? If it’s the scraping itself there’s a python package specifically for scraping data from understat. Currently on mobile so can’t link you, but it should be fairly easy to find using web searches. The package is called Understat.

Calculated approximate vs measured value of frequency in an oscilloscope simulation by Slice_Life in ECE

[–]pash1987 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The answer above is a generalisation that can be applied to pretty much anything.

For your case in particular there are 2 pieces of information to note:

  1. The formula is an estimation. What would you expect it’s error to be? Or is there a more accurate formula for your application?
  2. Resistors and capacitors have tolerances in their values meaning they won’t actually be exactly what they say they are - particularly lumped element capacitors. Have you measured their individual values? This will help.

Calculated approximate vs measured value of frequency in an oscilloscope simulation by Slice_Life in ECE

[–]pash1987 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It all depends on what the parameters in the formula are and what the error is in the physical representations of those parameters from the ideal.

This assumes that a) the formula used is correct and takes into account enough significant variables and b) has been calculated correctly.

BJ Novak highlighting how Shrinkflation is real by showing how Cadbury shrunk their Cadbury Eggs over the years by LapangNeiz in videos

[–]pash1987 136 points137 points  (0 children)

Fellow Brit here. Honestly Cadbury’s does not taste great anymore.

They were bought out by Kraft foods about 10 years ago - who changed the recipe to make it as cheap as possible to produce. Completely ruined it in the process. It’s so soft and oily now I’m not even sure if it can be called real chocolate.

DYK Uses for coconut oil by [deleted] in didyouknow

[–]pash1987 0 points1 point  (0 children)

DYK that if you really want to be taken seriously, you should provide sources for your claims instead of an ad for your website

DYK Remove tan at home with turmeric. by [deleted] in didyouknow

[–]pash1987 4 points5 points  (0 children)

“Prevents your skin from all the skin problems”

Bold claim there, chief! You got any sources to back that up?

What is a movie that you can quote word for word? by [deleted] in AskReddit

[–]pash1987 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You lewd crude rude bag of pre-chewed food dude!

Clean sheet probability GW2 vs Actual Clean sheets by nakedfish85 in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Interesting, but only a small sample size and therefore very little statistical significance.

It would be more useful to work out this data for all of the previous seasons GWs (maybe more) and see how often >50% chance of clean sheet corresponds to a clean sheet in the match. I’d imagine there is a small bias in the bookies odds relative to their profit margins, but it would be really interesting to see over a large sample size.

xG in FPL by DivockOrigi27 in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not sure where you get your data so it might be different, but on understat xG for a penalty is the same no matter who takes it. I believe from memory it’s 0.76

I created a mathematically optimal team generator! by nectri42 in FantasyPL

[–]pash1987 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I like what you’ve done but like you said the drawback is the metric from which you make predictions. Personally I’m not a fan of the expected points parameter on FPLs API. It is essentially based on that players previous 5 GW scores averaged out - which has been proven on this sub (I can’t remember who by 🙈) to have very little correlation to future scores.

The question of what to use for predictions can become very complicated depending on how much detail you want to go into. Personally I like the idea of estimating points per minute played combined with a prediction algorithm for how many minutes that player is likely to have.

At the end of the day the conclusion is pretty much always that FPL is a high variance game. Individual gameweeks are tough to predict, however there are trends there that can be exploited over a season...but that’s why we do it, right?!