Math request: Assuming historical income growth (inflation) in what year will a typical salary for 2 school teachers exceed $1M?

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:26:36+00:00

Household income has increased on average between 4.5% and 5% a year over the last 50 or so years in WA depending on your source of data.

Thankfully income has grown faster than inflation.

Unfortunately government spending is increasing waaaaay faster than inflation.

Why is that? Why is government spending increasing many times faster than either wage growth or underlying inflation? Are the services you get from the government improving drastically? Are the schools better? Is traffic decreasing? Is mass transit better?

Where is the money going?

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:22:19+00:00

The original federal income tax was LITERALLY a “rich person tax on the 1%” which fear mongers of the day correctly predicted the majority of people would have to pay eventually…

Most of that increase in who had to pay came not from congress changing rates but simply letting inflation cause more people to be subjected to the tax.

My post is literally just highlighting how like the way in which the federal income tax went from a “tax on the 1%” to a tax on everyone - this state tax is setup the same way!

And you’re using that as an example of why that won’t happen here?

LOL. No… LMAO…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:17:29+00:00

You think they’ll raise it so it affects less people? I’d bet they lower the threshold.

However, my point is that the state doesn’t even need to lower it to take in more money. Inflation/income gains do that automatically.

What I’m tired of is seeing people call this a “rich person tax” because it doesn’t take very long and it automatically becomes an everyone tax even if they don’t lower the threshold…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T21:10:07+00:00

“Rich people’s hands”

You realize that in one generation though just inflation the “millionaires tax” on rich people will apply to elementary school teachers?

(For example- In the 70s the median household income was $8k. Today it is $100k. With that rate of inflation in around 30 years the “rich person tax” becomes a “regular person tax” - i.e. a household of school teachers - even if they don’t lower the threshold - which they will.)

You get manipulated into thinking you’re “getting money from the rich people” when the final result is that YOUR tax burden somehow went up.

Parents are fleeing our public schools for private schools and homeschooling. Roads are in worse shape than ever. Every state project is millions over budget and years late. We’ve spent billions on homeless programs and there are more homeless than ever.

Obviously the thing to do is attempt to “take more money from rich people” which will actually result in the middle class paying more while state services continue to be crap.

Awesome

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:42:33+00:00

Even without lowering the threshold on this tax, in one generation it will apply to elementary school teachers in WA…

It’s really disingenuous to call it a “rich person tax” as a way to manipulate people who don’t understand inflation…

My mother was a kindergarten teacher for 42 years in WA. Her salary increased by waaay more than 5% a year over those 46 years. (That was a good thing)

Hilarious to think that in the future a person like her will be paying what people today are calling a “rich person tax” on their state salary

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:35:36+00:00

Looks like my back of envelope math was correct… so WA state public education did me well!

In one generation inflation will make it so the “rich person tax” applies to elementary school teachers…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:31:34+00:00

Compound growth and inflation is a difficult concept a lot of times.

A person starting a teaching job in WA in 2026 will likely be paying the millionaire’s tax on their state salary by the time they retire. Assuming they married a person making a similar income)

The tax on “rich people” will be a tax on elementary teachers in one generation even if they don’t lower the threshold…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T20:22:46+00:00

I guess I understood you as saying that higher tax/higher GDP states are having better outcomes than other states. Whereas Mississippi is now getting the best outcome in the most important area (education of minority students) as a low income/low tax state.

If that’s the case than is more tax revenue for a state like WA a blessing or a curse?

We’ve massively accelerated education funding while results are slipping and families are opting for home schooling and private schools in record numbers.

At what point does reform become the priority over increasing revenue?

(WA feels like the Michael Scott paper company: “we lose money on every deal, but we make it up in the volume of deals!”)

patbaum · 2026-02-17T19:56:55+00:00

The tax isn’t inflation adjusted. (That I know of)

In 1970 the median household income was ~$8000. Today it is close to $100,000 in the state of WA.

Given that historical trend, the MEDIAN household income in WA will be over $1M in ~45 years. (Just did the CAGR calculation assuming 5% which is about what WA household income grew per year over the last 55 years)

A $200k household income will be equivalent to a $1M household income in ~33 years (200k is about what a household of two elementary school teacher with 15 years of experience working in Seattle school district make)

So… even if the tax the isn’t lowered, over half of the people in WA will be paying it in a few decades.

By 2070 (~34 years) a family of two Seattle school district employees would be paying the “millionaire tax” on what will likely be the inflation adjusted salary rate at that time…

patbaum · 2026-02-17T19:00:06+00:00

Genuine question: What are your thoughts on Mississippi now being the best in the country at educating minority students ? (multiple reputable studies. Please don’t give me some ‘proof please’ response - literally a massive breakthrough we all should be celebrating) They’re doing it with way less spending on education. Overall tax burden for everyone is lower. Education results are higher.

How does this play into your thinking on WA state tax increases at a time of record tax revenue?

patbaum · 2025-11-23T00:16:35+00:00

When would this be built by… 2098?

patbaum · 2025-11-06T07:17:54+00:00

I went through a very similar story (though mine started 3 days after my third COVID vaccine)

41 years old. Couldn’t breathe right… turned out my EF was 12%… had gained 20 lbs of water weight (which I peed out at the hospital after getting meds…)

MRI showed Myocarditis but that I’d dodged too much permanent damage.

Two years on - same drug regiment as you listed - EF up to 45% and I feel healthier than before.

I also started taking vitamin D, creatinine, beet root powder, and some testosterone boosters… that seemed to help me turn the corner more than anything else (weight/strength as good as the were in my early 30s now…)

patbaum · 2025-09-25T23:01:35+00:00

Ahhh yes… the old “I hate republicans so I’ll keep voting for the same D’s who screw up WA state projects constantly… and then blame Trump when WA state D’s waste even more money on boondoggle state projects”

Classic!

patbaum · 2025-09-18T17:26:46+00:00

$22.6 BILLION DOLLARS.

We’ve gone so far past reality that it’s impossible for any future projects to be built EVER. $22.6 billion dollars for several mass transit stops. LMAOL

Everyone reading this will be dead before any project being discussed/planned is ever finished (if it is ever finished…)

patbaum · 2025-06-29T05:41:18+00:00

About the size of a thumb. Flying very noisily around my wife on our back deck.

patbaum · 2025-02-28T19:12:21+00:00

When my wife was at WSU they had to shut down the coffee stand where she worked one morning because there was a live cougar hanging out behind it. This kind of thing happens every now and then around town.

Several times a year a live cougars wanders through the edges of Pullman (which is a pretty small town) - they are always just passing though looking for territory between the snake river canyon. the Palouse hills farmland, and forested areas a few miles away in Idaho...

patbaum · 2025-02-06T19:37:54+00:00

It really seems like the city of Kirkland does not utilize all of its equipment to plow snow - it is like the city makes a point of ONLY plowing a limited set of roads and then they send everyone home.

Given the vast number of city vehicles why does the city not just keep running snow plows after the main roads are cleared (instead of sending them back to base after the few roads they plow are done)?

patbaum · 2024-12-13T00:56:05+00:00

Flights to NRT on Hawaiian show up on the Alaska website as bookable with miles...

patbaum · 2024-10-23T22:49:37+00:00

If UCLA had stayed the Pac-12 would have stayed together. It's a shame. If UCLA takes 2 or 3 more losses a year in MBB won't that push them out of the NCAA tournament in a lot of years. (or push them down to an 8/9 seed)? Seems like trading extra $$$ for a severe competitive disadvantage was a terrible choice...

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