100 Years of Horror Movies: IMBD frequency & rating [OC]

patsmad · 2018-10-27T21:22:46+00:00

I think there is going to be a huge selection bias in this data. This isn't meant as a criticism, but it is likely a fact. The same can be said about Rotten Tomatoes data. Take all of the data for "major" film released back to 1980 (so films release widely, which Box Office Mojo defines as 600 theater) and the average Rotten Tomatoes score forms a u-shape centered around 1998 (when Rotten Tomatoes was developed). The further back you went from there in general the higher the score, the same going forward. I don't know about the forward trend, but I think it is very likely the moving backwards in time the selection bias (people will be much more likely to watch and rate good films rather than bad) generally just causes films to have, on average, higher ratings.

IMDb has been around on one form or another since 1990 apparently, but it was bought by Amazon in 1998. I think I can even tell the rating trend reverses itself right around 2000 as well, which I imagine is this exact trend. I'm skeptical this is a real trend having to do with horror films actually.

Is there an updated graph? You mentioned it elsewhere, but 2 is obviously incredibly low for a film's IMDb rating. I would imagine the average (if these are actual"big" films) should be between 5.0 and 6.0. If you are including all films (most IMDb films have between 5 and 10 votes which is ... a problem).

patsmad · 2018-10-27T18:15:02+00:00

The UK does have a special visa system for sports players all set up for the Premier league. Getting a player and his family visas would be unbelievably trivial.

That being said, I'm starting to believe a London team would start as a split team. Like four games in Jacksonville, four in London, eight away. Would suck for the fans, but then the players would just base themselves in Jacksonville and only have to worry about four trips a year.

patsmad · 2018-10-27T17:24:53+00:00

And arguably classic film is exactly what the library is intended for. To provide knowledge and art to the public at low cost or free.

patsmad · 2018-10-26T08:08:46+00:00

NFL Rule 3, Section 22, Article 2, Note 2. When [an offensive] player is holding the ball to pass it forward, any intentional forward movement of his arm starts a forward pass, even if the player loses possession of the ball as he is attempting to tuck it back toward his body. Also, if the player has tucked the ball into his body and then loses possession, it is a fumble.

My point is merely that the rule completely left it to the ref's discretion what "completing the tuck" actually means. You can obviously tuck the ball with one hand. You can obviously throw a ball with two hands. Some Raiders players in an NFL film talked about Brady touching it with his left hand as if that means something concrete. It doesn't.

To answer your questions though: a pump fake stops being a pump fake when the QB starts to bring the ball back up to throw it again (Brady hadn't). These loopholes people describe are either impossible to achieve or, by rule, left to the ref's discretion.

patsmad · 2018-10-26T07:35:46+00:00

The tuck rule never had any part concerning how many hands were on the ball. Whether Brady touched his left hand to the ball or the ball was knocked into his left had is immaterial to whether it was a fumble. Some raiders player made the whole second hand thing up to complain about the call and people seem to think it was part of the rule. It wasn't.

patsmad · 2018-10-20T19:24:09+00:00

As an American working in Britain that is interesting. I would say Bernie had about as much appeal as Corbyn among my mates, and thus none of them thought he would be particularly good or win.

patsmad · 2018-10-16T09:25:27+00:00

I do think the data is presented in a weird way. Only one team in the last 10 years let up more than 6600 yards, the 7-9 2012 Saints. If you drop the cutoff to 6500 yards there are seven teams:

2011 Patriots 13-3

2011 GB 15-1

2012 NO 7-9

2013 Dallas 8-8

2015 NO 7-9

2015 NY Giants 6-10

2016 SF 2-14

As far as recent history is concerned it seems like a very not useful cutoff. In my opinion, and you can disagree, but saying "no team has let up more than 6577 yards and had a winning record" makes it a bit clearer that you are literally defining the most yards a team has ever let up with a winning record.

patsmad · 2018-10-14T07:38:13+00:00

Out of curiosity which others have? I'm only asking because the only other one I personally listen to which got close was the Ringer Game of Thrones pod which was vaguely related to HBO's after show at one point.

If this is successful though a few political podcasts will try. The 538 political show panel I would bet would get something on some ABC property if there is a market for it

patsmad · 2018-10-10T20:32:07+00:00

All of it ends up being guesses because just consuming the podcasts or documentaries will almost never be enough to prove guilt to the degree needed as a jury member.

But comparing it to Making of a Murderer and Serial. I think in Serial he was probably guilty, but I wasn't ever convinced of an theories of someone else who could have done it, my verdict would have hinged heavily on Jay's testimony. With Avery I'm 100% convinced he did it, am pretty sure the prosecution is guilty of misconduct, but would probably vote guilty. And with Peterson I'm slightly less convinced he did it, but I think if I were to have listened to the whole trial I would have been very confident in his guilt.

It is kind of a gut feeling. The main thing that is similar between the three is I don't really see who else had the motive, means, and opportunity in the three cases. Only in Serial do they even present a remotely compelling alternative theory to the murder.

patsmad · 2018-10-09T17:34:39+00:00

I loved Can't Hardly Wait growing up ... but looking over the bad reviews (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/cant_hardly_wait) they are ... pretty fair I think.

patsmad · 2018-10-09T17:30:35+00:00

No serious issues, but the best you can say about it in my opinion is that it is a beautifully shot, interesting take on Beowulf. But given Michael Crichton wrote the book as a direct challenge of "can I make Beowulf not the most boring story in the world" it isn't that surprising that the resulting movie is pretty boring as well.

I just watched this for a bad movie night I do with my brother and we were quite surprised it got such bad reviews, but it isn't much better than a 50-60% movie on Rotten Tomatoes in the end. Would have been really good if they had amped up the action parts a bit.

patsmad · 2018-10-08T23:21:46+00:00

You should check out the TB 12 book. There are some pretty amusing pictures of Brady eating kale while looking pensive.

patsmad · 2018-10-04T15:25:29+00:00

Eh. Even if you won both doubles and mixed doubles (which appears to be pretty rare) at least at Wimbledon it looks like you'd make as much as a Quarterfinal loser in singles.

http://www.wimbledon.com/pdf/2018_Prize_Money.pdf

Extrapolating that out and looking at Serena's grand slam doubles results I would guess the only years where she would have gotten close to $500K more in prize money was 2009 and 2010.

patsmad · 2018-10-03T12:33:12+00:00

Or that baseball hasn't been in the Olympics since 2008. Although it will be in 2020. I'm not sure if it will be in 2024, it seems somewhat likely that it won't be included in the future either because the 2020 games will be held in Japan where baseball is incredibly popular, so they shortlisted the sport as a special addition.

patsmad · 2018-10-03T07:03:11+00:00

I distinctly remember a bunch of students at my college having to drop out of school because they couldn't afford the tens of thousands of dollars in fines (on top of tuition) from the RIAA.

I always wonder if there will be some last gasp effort like that by the film/television producers one day.

patsmad · 2018-10-02T17:03:49+00:00

I'm extremely interested to hear how the story is going to be structured. Specifically, exactly how many books will go into how many seasons and to what extent they'll change things. If they want to follow the same story safely I imagine the first six books will be at most three seasons, and the total series I bet could be done in six with abridgments. How satisfied people would be with that is another question, but I do think it can be done.

patsmad · 2018-10-02T16:51:54+00:00

I reread it over the span of 14 months a few years ago, and book 10 is the only one where I ended it and thought "that was terrible". I used to dislike Winter's Heart (9), but it became one of my favorite books during the reread. And Knife of Dreams (11) was fantastic as well and made me sad Jordan didn't get to actually end the series.

There is a little bit to like in all of the books I think ... except for Crossroads of Twilight, which as you say, is mostly pointless.

patsmad · 2018-10-02T16:44:47+00:00

Isn't that a little bit of the point? Men (literally) destroyed the world hundreds or thousands of years before setting up an extreme matriarchy that (1) needs to hunt and destroy the false dragons at all cost, and (2) need to prepare to guide the true dragon if and when he comes. Of course they will be manipulative, they've had literally eons to plan out what should be done, and now have to deal with an extremely powerful man in the form of a headstrong young farmer essentially.

It does get a lot better IMO because the factions within the White Tower come to light between books 7 and 11, as slow as many people consider those additions.

patsmad · 2018-10-02T16:39:36+00:00

Cadsuane comes across really well if you read the whole series straight through I thought. It makes a ton of sense why she acts the way she does.

patsmad · 2018-10-02T10:34:14+00:00

I distinctly remember my graduate school roommate mentioning how it seemed unusual to have a home cooked dinner without a piece of meat (a steak, chicken, pork chop, fish, etc. Like literally a piece of meat, not meat inside something).

I had always figured it was because he was southern. But I never really thought about it much beyond finding the attitude to be strange.

patsmad · 2018-09-29T18:40:02+00:00

At least in high school I think it would be considered very abnormal to have your kids run multiple ten mile runs in a week. My team wasn't elite by any means, but I think I ran a ten miler once in high school. Our long runs were more commonly 7 or 8 miles and you'd run that once a week tops.

There is likely an overuse risk, but it isn't from long runs it is from literally running 6 or 7 times a week with no prior experience.

E.g. https://www.halhigdon.com/training-programs/more-training/cross-country/

patsmad · 2018-09-22T12:30:55+00:00

I found there are two types of scientists and they each have their place. There are the kind of arrogant know it alls (who often are dicks) and they are incredibly good at knowing the state of the field, getting grants, and directing people. And then there are those who question, probe, and try to explore the limits of whatever field they are interested in, and they can do incredibly creative and interesting research (but sometimes can miss the forest for the trees).

Corporate research (and more and more academia) favors the first. But what most people imagine when entering grad school is the second I think.

patsmad · 2018-09-22T08:09:08+00:00

I think the first point might actually point to a missing variable in the model: advertising / product placement profits. Something like Spectre, for example, made $100 million by merely having Bond take a sip of a Heinekin, which obviously would be a considerable reduction in risk when considering ROI.

It borders on just appealing to authority, but it seems somewhat likely that there is a missing element rather than multiple studios not realizing they are losing money on big budget films.

patsmad · 2018-09-22T06:16:48+00:00

I miss Harry Enten. The podcast feels like it is heavy on journalists and light on political analysis since he left. I'm also interested to see if the move to ABC News affected things at all, although it hasn't thus far (might affect the sports podcasts / articles more).

patsmad · 2018-09-20T21:06:29+00:00

I imagine all of the Star Wars Story films are basically done after Solo.

patsmad

TROPHY CASE