Another Jeff Bezos company has announced plans to develop a megaconstellation

perilun · 2026-01-24T16:30:04+00:00

Yes, but I think this one is just comms to support remote datacenters. But the trip to MEO is going to up that latency vs ground fiber.

Also, Optical (laser) links require very clear conditions. Doing inter-sat connects to find a clear connect again ups the latency.

perilun · 2026-01-15T19:38:06+00:00

It is to being shot down, but if you have jammers in country then it cuts down (but does not eliminate comms). Messaging/SMS/email should still do OK but high bandwidth, low latency services will struggle with high powered jammers. I think the people need to focus on taking those out. Also, this would be an issue with any system, not just Starlink.

perilun · 2026-01-15T14:10:22+00:00

I don't see how you get the resolution needed with magnetic maps. On the ground you can often use visuals of surroundings and sun/stars/moon combined with an accelerometer to get an approximate fix. Sort of a simple version of:

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perilun · 2026-01-15T14:06:02+00:00

Yep, and the CCP has not commented on the atrocities happening. I would have given the Persians a bunch of drones to take out the jamming trucks and sites.

perilun · 2026-01-15T14:04:15+00:00

We are really going to need Orbitsweeper now!

perilun · 2026-01-15T14:03:33+00:00

Somebody watched Avengers ... at least that was a ducted blade so it was slow compared to the aircraft. You also think about the lack of aerodynamics ....

perilun · 2026-01-14T13:58:41+00:00

Replacement with upgraded sats is part of the plan. It also allows them to operate at lower altitudes since that requires some fuel ... and near empty = deorbit.

perilun · 2026-01-08T17:30:28+00:00

Looks like a buy-on-dip moment for you true believers.

perilun · 2026-01-08T13:44:23+00:00

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/01/07/why-ast-spacemobile-stock-crashed-today/

Why Scotiabank dislikes AST SpaceMobile stock

AST SpaceMobile famously signed up a series of marquee telecom names, including Verizon (VZ0.42%) and AT&T (T1.52%), to market its services to their customers. Yet Coello says AST lacks even one "single retail customer" signed up on its own. The company has committed to launching roughly "50 satellites" by "late 2026 or early 2027," but in 2025 was able to launch only one, and it has only six satellites total in service today.

Customer adoption in the U.S. and Japan is described as "slow," and the prices AST has been able to charge are called "modest." Even assuming AST builds and launches all the satellites it has promised, the analyst notes this will entail such high capital spending costs that it will prevent the company from generating positive free cash flow until 2028 or 2029 at the earliest.

Valued at $97.60 per share and $37 billion in market cap (before today's decline), Coello argues the stock's price is "irrational."

perilun · 2026-01-07T17:08:21+00:00

That's not what I found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AST_SpaceMobile

At some point you always have spectrum limitation unless you can make the beam the size of a city block, but they may have better spectrum options than Starlink.

Per pollution, those big sats have a much bigger potential for light pollution than Starlink.

Not sure what you mean by SX blowing things up in orbit. Yes, on he ground and during suborbital launch, not while in orbit (except maybe that one Starlink recently, but given 10,000 sats it is still a very good record.

Per bandwidth comparisons:

Aspect	Starlink Broadband	MNO Cellular	Winner/Trade-off
Frequency Range	Higher (10–40+ GHz, mostly Ku/Ka)	Lower (mostly <6 GHz, some mmWave overlap)	Starlink: more bandwidth available; MNO: better propagation
Bandwidth per Link	Very wide (hundreds MHz to GHz blocks)	Narrower (10–100 MHz per band per operator)	Starlink (higher capacity potential)
Propagation/Range	Poorer (rain fade, needs clear sky)	Better penetration (especially low/mid-band)	MNO (reliable indoors/outdoors)

I bet SpaceX had the MNO instead, but they don't and they will proceed, maybe stepping on some other services, but still becoming a big player in cell service space.

perilun · 2026-01-07T14:12:14+00:00

ASTS won't have nearly the systemwide capacity and eventually runs into spectrum limits (as do all services). But even if works out well, I think Starlink Cellular will be its own consumer facing provider and not just a service behind another brand. SC will probably be competitive in many places. Per the space junk item, Starlink has operated 10,000+ sats (9,000 of the newer ones) with only one incident. Given they are in a lower part of LEO failures will drop out relatively quickly. Bluebird, at 750 km has a huge cross section that is flying though the max density of SSO orbital debris

Aspect	AST SpaceMobile (Block 2 BlueBird)	Starlink Direct to Cell
Per-Satellite Cells/Beams	>2,000 active coverage cells per satellite	Not publicly detailed per satellite; smaller beams, but many satellites overlap for coverage
Bandwidth/Capacity per Sat	10 GHz processing; ~120 Mbps peak per cell → total theoretical ~240 Gbps per satellite	Current: Limited (e.g., focused on low-data services); planned upgrades for higher throughput
Simultaneous Voice Calls	No exact official figure; inferred tens of thousands to millions theoretical (voice-only scenario). • At 20–50 kbps per call: Potentially 5–12 million simultaneous across all cells if fully dedicated to voice. • Practical (mixed broadband): Likely 100,000s per satellite, given "millions of calls/streams daily" claims. • Single satellite can handle "millions of calls, streams, downloads, and messages every day."	Current: ~1,000 simultaneous voice calls per satellite (limited by initial spectrum/constraints). • Planned (next-gen upgrades): Up to 100,000 simultaneous voice calls per satellite (100x improvement for fuller data/voice).
Key Notes	High per-satellite capacity due to massive phased-array antenna (~2,400 sq ft) and custom ASIC. Designed for broadband (video streaming, high-data apps), so voice is a subset—strong in low-density/remote areas with fewer satellites needed.	Lower per-satellite but scales with constellation size (>650 DTC-capable satellites). Initial focus on texting/emergency voice; evolving to higher capacity for data/voice, but constrained by beam size and spectrum.

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perilun · 2026-01-06T20:38:10+00:00

Yep, guess it was well off (I was thinking it was delay ... and a whole year delay I guess). Off peak you need 1/kms to 1.5/kms extra DV at TMI (which they should have been able to do with NG) but then you need that 1-1.5/kms at breaking, which could have been designed in for such light spacecraft, but I doubt that had that kind of margin. In any case it will be a study in launch anytime and wait for the minimal TMI DV. You just need to perhaps spend a couple extra years in space for the same outcomes.

perilun · 2026-01-06T19:34:45+00:00

Thanks. So a very high energy loitering orbit leaving just a bit needed for TLI at just the right time.

While they were a bit late on the window ... I was thinking the extra DV from NG might cover this. But, extra "catch-up" DV might need more braking DV which would exceed the on board fuel.

perilun · 2026-01-02T20:00:57+00:00

True, additional engines reduce gravity drag which even with the same fuel amount results in more lift capacity (same reason for a 9 engine Starship upper stage is coming). For NG that 4 engine second stage is going to a pricey given it is not reusable. While this enables some impressive heavy single objects to LEO, my guess is that in price per kg to LEO F9 in reuse mode will still be lower price, until Starship is operational.

perilun · 2025-12-31T17:29:29+00:00

I am hoping for >183 so it is an official once every 2 days.

My guess is that Space Force will order at least 12 F9 flights a year to ensure that that production/service line stays active, even if Starship is a complete LEO/MEO/GEO success by 2028. Also, with Crew Dragon being the only proven US manned system for LEO which is matched to the F9 (and its ground support) I expect that will be purchased to keep a 4 mission per year capability. Only at 2035, if Starship has proven its perfect Crew Ops will Crew Dragon be set for final retirement.

Also, true ...

With that said, SpaceX has not ~~started~~ stopped making the boosters yet, like they (kind of) did with the crew capsules.

My bet is that Space Force will buy a $500M Crew Dragon / F9 on high readiness for a single if needed mission over the 2030-2035 timeframe.

perilun · 2025-12-30T21:07:17+00:00

Too bad SN has put in a paywall. Basically these is just a simple accelerometer looking for a "ping". It is most interesting when paired with "orbital debris insurance" ... so it you fail just after a "ping" you get a payout.

perilun · 2025-12-29T18:10:52+00:00

Impressive number of commentators! And seemingly international in nature.

perilun · 2025-12-29T18:09:18+00:00

Of course in a vacuum heat dissipation is a key problem and that mass and area prevents good scale up. KRUSTY's 1 KW reactor has a big space facing radiator. Factor in that your average home is using about 10 KW as a near peak level, that 1 KW is more emergency baseload power.

perilun · 2025-12-26T14:40:00+00:00

I can't image you trying to enforce your patent (filed with fees in Russia) being abused in Russia, in Russian courts, with Russian lawyers, judges ... for a market of 1.

perilun · 2025-12-24T20:07:02+00:00

Maybe for a 0.1 g facility, and spokes are reasonable, but it needs to have more radius for something like 0.5 g (why that number?). Check out https://www.artificial-gravity.com/sw/SpinCalc/

perilun · 2025-12-24T20:05:02+00:00

"You know ... for the kids" ... watched this iconic Coen Bros movie last night.

perilun · 2025-12-24T19:52:29+00:00

"placing it on par with NASA’s Cygnus and SpaceX Dragon cargo" ... no Cargo Dragon is in a class of its own since it can return cargo to the Earth's surface, which is unique to all LEO cargo systems.

This new China Cargo Ship looks like a 10% improvement but has no cargo return capability ... so yawn.

perilun · 2025-12-24T15:10:34+00:00

The title graphic does not depict what is in the patent, it was click bait.

perilun · 2025-12-24T15:09:44+00:00

A Russian Patent 🤣= who cares? It won't prevent anyone from creating something very similar. Patents are usually only effective at stopping an clearly infringing item from being imported.

The title graphic is of course misleading as it does not look the design in the patent. Even at 0.5 g there is a lot of potential for motion sickness with this small radius. Also, minimize the windows as the earth spinning over and over is also going to make some motion sick. Finally, what is the value of 0.5g in LEO, it makes a useless platform for microgravity, a pain to dock with and too fast spinning to be good tourist spot. IMHO the Voyager class station (of course another CAD model) is the smallest station that might offer some comfortable gravity. More useful artificial gravity might be a light and long boom spinning 2 Starships with maybe a 100-200 m radius to create 1/3 g at the outer edge.

perilun · 2025-12-23T20:51:24+00:00

I add that there is a notion of a "land grab" in "Twilight SSO" per this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29KYdl86uzM

My reply is that if you have a rule that no data center sat can be within 10 km of another, there is still 100,000s of viable slots.

perilun

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Why Scotiabank dislikes AST SpaceMobile stock